Post by Gregg Popovich on Nov 12, 2016 16:33:27 GMT -5
LA Lakers (9th): Next in my season predictions, and just barely missing the playoffs is Blake Bowman and the Los Angeles Lakers! Led by Eric ‘Mini LeBron’ Bledsoe, Klay Thompson, Andre Drummond and Nikola ‘Vucci Mane’ Vucevic, the Lakers are not a team to be taken lightly. This team has great potential, however, from a composition standpoint, it is lacking cohesion. The incohesiveness stems from their shortage of positional variance. Specifically in the frontcourt, the Lakers are inept in spacing by playing two traditional C’s together. While Vuc has a decent mid-range game, neither player can extend out to the 3PT line, an extremely useful dimension in a modern NBA offense. Furthermore, both centers are great rebounders. Having them play together causes them to suffocate each other, resulting in neither reaching their full rebounding potential. Defensively, having the two together also hinders their potential. Drummond is the most athletic of the two, resulting in him guarding the typically quicker PF’s of opposing teams, leaving the least defensive of the two (Vuc) to be in charge of interior defense. Neither are in an optimal situation and it's too bad Blake didn’t allow Andre to spread his wings this RFA in Phoenix :(. Perhaps the sim doesn’t work exactly like that, but each year the Lakers disappoint and I think that is a big reason why. Next is their interesting backcourt. To me, they are missing a SF. While Klay can and likely will play there, I think once again the Lakers are squishing players into positions that will produce suboptimal results. Klay is also off to a cold start to the year. If this trend continues, the Laker’s star and only 70+ rated player could get reduced. While I’m not a believer in the argument that players should be reduced because of another star joining their team (resulting in less shots, lower usage and thus lower stats), Klay is simply struggling. So far this season, he is only taking 1 less shot per game and his usage has gone down by 2.7% with the addition of Durant. Yet, for a sharp shooter such as himself, he is shooting an abysmal 28.1% from downtown. For the Lakers sake, I hope this is only a shooting slump and we should see it go back to his career numbers (over 40%) in a few weeks. Then the Lakers will have to decide on who to start at the 1 and 2 between three PGs. A backcourt combo of Lin and Bledsoe seems to make the most sense as Lin and Kemba irl meshed well. This leaves out veteran PG, Tony Parker to play the backup role, which seems logical as he continues to regress (possibly another SW candidate?). Now that we’re out of the big names on the Lakers, the talent level steeply drops off. This lack of depth outside of the top 7 guys was the deciding factor for me in placing the Lakers below the two teams slotted above. If there is another injury (like last year to Bledsoe), the Lakers will truly suffer. However, if they make the right moves to maximize their roster, I think the Lakers will easily surpass this prediction. Placing them somewhere between those two scenarios seemed logical. Watch for the Lakers to hover just below .500 with the potential for much more. Congrats to the remaining Western Conference teams, you’re predicted to make the playoffs (if that means anything?)!! Means a lot since my team came from the bottom
Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Phoenix Suns
Charlotte Hornets (9th): In at the 9th spot in the East is Colin Loftin and his Charlotte Hornets! The Hornets have been one of the hardest teams to predict due to their balance of competitive players and developing talent. In one hand, the Hornets have All-star wing, Jimmy Butler complemented with Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka and Darren Collison, but also have players like Wade Baldwin, Josh Richardson and Trey Lyles. I could easily see the Hornets outperforming this prediction with the right moves, but simultaneously under-performing it if they trade their upper level talent. Based on the conversation I witnessed, Mr. Loftin has an interest in Dennis Smith Jr., so I wouldn’t be surprised if he chooses that direction. The Hornets, to me, closely resemble an actual NBA team. Over the past two seasons, the Hornets have been somewhat in the middle of the pack due to the reluctance to take a strong stance in either direction (tank or compete). Often in this league, we see the extremes because we don’t have to worry about ticket sales or actual affliction on the players lives. Colin has always remained in the middle of those extremes during my tenure. That has been a large determinant in my prediction for the Hornets this season. Now to the team specifically, the Hornets are extremely defensively minded. Jimmy Butler, Serge Ibaka, Matthew Dellavedova and Josh Richardson are all great defenders at their respective positions.Whether on the perimeter or the interior, most opposing teams will struggle to score against them. Additionally, Delly, Collison and Ibaka are all capable 3PT shooters. Where the Hornets may get into trouble is the fact that they don’t have a starting 3PT specialist. The three just listed are all decent shooters, however none of them are stars at that particular skill. The Hornets may struggle some nights when the decent shooters they rely on go cold. Hopefully Richardson can maintain a high percentage (I don’t expect the 50% from 3 to continue) and Trey Lyles can continue to develop his outside game. The Hornets may also get into some trouble when their starters are off the court. Once out of the top 6 players, no one currently is above a 60. Depth is very key, so if the Hornets want to take the next step, they will want to bolster that area. All-in-all, Colin Loftin has built himself a respectable team that shows short-term and long-term success. Look for the Hornets to be a top defense this season and show signs of a competitive team, but struggle to decide if that is where they want to be headed. Congrats to the remaining Eastern Conference teams, you've been predicted to make the playoffs!
Houston Rockets (8th): The first team to be announced to be predicted to make the playoffs is Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets! Led by one of the better PGs in the league, Kyrie Irving, and arguably the best center (especially if you’re listening to Billy) in the league, Hassan Whiteside, the Rockets are not a team to be taken lightly. Most teams are lucky to have one All-star, let alone two. They will be an extremely strong team on both ends of the court with these two, as Kyrie is a tremendous offensive player and Whiteside is practically a wall on defense. The Rockets are also relatively deep with their top 13 all above a 57. That’s quite impressive considering most teams get below a 57 past the top 8 or so. The biggest weakness of the Rockets this season is somewhat similar to the Lakers - positions. The Rockets are playing two traditional centers (Gortat and Whiteside) together, two point guards together (although I think this combination works) and no one as a clear starter at the 3. Its quite unfortunate, especially for Whiteside, to have this compositional clog. Whiteside is the type of center that does best without another heavy rebounder beside him that can also stretch the floor. Something like what the irl Pistons have done with Drummond is what the Rockets should look to do, rather than being the Pistons of 2014-2015 with Drummond and Monroe. I think the Rockets would be able to maximize Whiteside’s potential that way. For the two PGs, I think this combination works quite well. Despite this year in the playoffs, Kyrie hasn’t shown much in terms of being a solid defensive player. On the other hand, that is Beverly’s speciality, allowing him to guard the better of the two opposing guards. Kyrie is also a great shooter, enabling him to carry less of a ball handling role if that’s needed, and Beverly isn’t much of an offensive player, giving Kyrie all the opportunities he wants. For a starting SF, it will be interesting to see what Yao decides. He could go to a more predictable route with Matt Barnes or Mo Harkless, or really encumber the paint with another big like Sullinger or Nene. Either way, this is a huge hole in the Rockets lineup that any team with a respectable wing threat will be looking to exploit. Besides the positional awkwardness, the true ‘Achilles heel’ for the Rockets this season is health. Three of their starting 5 (Beverly, Kyrie and Whiteside) are all known to regularly miss time throughout the season. And while the Rockets have great depth at C with Mozgov, Nene and Gortat all being able to split time there, an injury to Kyrie or Beverly will result in a below starter-quality guy as a replacement. If this health concern wasn’t as well documented, the Rockets would be predicted much higher. Watch for Houston to dominate the glass and have a solid defense, but fall back in the standings when one of their stars goes out. 
Milwaukee Bucks (8th): The first Eastern Conference team to be predicted to make the playoffs is Dirk Nowitzki and the Milwaukee Bucks! Led by Derrick Favors, Rudy Gay, Brandon Knight, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, the Bucks are looking to show that they are a solid team even without cornerstone player, Anthony Davis. In a blockbuster trade with Seattle, the Bucks received a plethora of picks along with Favors to move the 23 yr old superstar who has now found his way onto the Pelicans. The Bucks are a well rounded offensive team, with great spacing from Ariza, Gordon and Knight, as well as iso-scoring from Gay and solid interior play from Favors. This continues into the bench too, with Calderon, Bogdanovic and Dunleavy as the shooters, Livingston with iso-post ups and Koufos working the interior. One of the bigger questions surrounding the Bucks is who their starting 5 will be exactly. I suspect Favors, Knight and Gay to be shoe-ins, but whether they will go small (with Favors at the 5, Gay/Young at the 4, Ariza at 3, Gordon at 2 and Knight at 1) or big (with Koufos at 5, Favors at 4, Gay at 3, Ariza/Gordon at 2 and Knight at 1) will be the question. With Favors’ lack of perimeter shooting but great size and defense, he certaintly wouldn’t be out of place in the sim playing center. This would also enable Koufos to come off the bench and provide the Bucks with their only other interior defender in the 2nd unit. However, having only one backup center, possibly only 1 center if Favors plays the 4, is a huge roster weakness for Dirk this season. Especially since Favors has been dealing with a lingering back issue, they could find themselves fairly short handed this season. Therefore, opposing teams will be looking to take advantage of the lack of interior defense on the Bucks. For other weaknesses, possible stock watch reductions looks to be the most haunting. Before the season began, Brandon Knight was assigned to a 6th man role in Phoenix, where he looked to be in a position to be a frontrunner 6MOTY (6th man of the year) candidate. If this slump of shooting 37.9% from the field and career lows (or close to) in RB%, AST%, STL%, TS% and BPM continues, I think Knight could warrant a decrease from his current 68 rating. Colderon (59) and Dunleavy (59) would be other players that could see a reduction this year as well on the Bucks. The only clear candidate for increase that is currently rostered is Justin Anderson (50). As irl Dallas becomes more and more injured, Anderson’s role will expand, giving Dirk an opportunity to give his guy a SW to potentially help compensate these reductions. Look for Milwaukee to struggle against teams with great finishers and if Favors is out due to injury, but manage to secure a playoff spot with great offense and the luck of being in a weaker Eastern Conference. 
Golden State Warriors (7th): In at 7th in the Western Conference is one of the biggest supporters of these posts, Kwame Brown and the Golden State Warriors! Without question, Kwame always ‘likes’ these writeups, and for that I wish I could have him over the Supersonics (oops...spoiler?). But, I had made my predictions before the fandom and, therefore, have to stick with them. Led by Damian “Dame D.O.L.L.A” Lillard, Karl Anthony-Towns, Rudy “the Stifle Tower” Gobert and Jordan Clarkson, the Warriors are an up and coming team that has spent their D720 history at the bottom of the league collecting high draft picks. With the exit of Tony Stark and the entrance of Kwame Brown, the Warriors have officially begun their ascent out of the bottom of the league. Founded on the deepest frontcourt in the league, the Warriors have INSANE depth at center and interior defense. Towns, Gobert, Turner and Hibbert are all already great defenders/shot blockers or close to that. Any team that faces them this season will be hard pressed to score in the paint. The only issue, which I will get to later, is figuring out the best combination of them and splitting their minutes. Their next strongest factor, which I continually express, is depth. The Warriors are the deepest team examined thus far, with their top 10 of 15 players currently rated above 60. That in itself puts them above any of the other teams predicted below them. As mentioned earlier, however, the congruence of this team is a bit weird. To put this a bit more clearly, the top 7 players (Towns, Lillard, Gobert, Clarkson, Hibbert, Chalmers and Turner) of the Warriors all play 2 positions - center and point guard. Performing well in the sim is surprisingly quite dependent on “team synergy”. While this is not to say all combinations that Kwame can play this year won’t do well, I think it will be difficult to climb higher in the West than 7th against more compatible teams. Lillard and Clarkson both currently play in situations irl where they have another solid ball handler alongside, so that duo will be just fine, but the center rotation is most concerning. Perhaps the sim won’t have as much of an issue with Towns playing PF as most NBA fans would, I think he is best utilized and creates the most effective mismatches when he is at the 5. Then the same issue arises off the bench with Turner and Hibbert, where both could coexist, but are probably better off each as centers. The next weakness to this playoff team is their lack of perimeter defense. Partly due to their lack of SFs and 3 & D players, the Warriors will struggle to stop great shooting teams. Lillard and Clarkson are both shakey defenders, leaving their only perimeter defender to be Iman Shumpert. If the Warriors are really looking to compete in the coming years, getting a more reliable perimeter defender will be crucial. They may be able to stop virtually anyone in the paint, but outside is clear skies. Look for the Warriors to be able to win most of their games through PG offense and interior defense alone, but struggle against good shooting and perimeter defensive teams. 
Philadelphia 76ers (7th): In at 7th in the East is Ari Gold and the Philadelphia 76ers! Led by veteran PG Mike Conley, James Harden, Enes Kanter, and Zack “ZBo” Randolph, the 76ers are top heavy but looking to stir things up with a well balanced team. One of their greatest strengths is in their proven talent. Harden, Randolph, Reddick and Conley are all experienced, high level playoff competitors. Also, despite it being hard to believe, Harden is currently in the midst of a career year. It seems like a fast paced, shooting offense would be the ideal model for Philly to emulate to warrant similar results. However, the 76ers don't have much for shooters in their starting 5 other than Reddick. Another strength for Ari’s team is rebounding. ZBo and Kanter are great rebounding bigs, some of the best in the league in fact. Harden is also a high rebounding guard, averaging 7.4 per game this season. In the sim, rebounding seems to be quite important and a key factor in a successful team. Gaining 2nd chances on offense and turning their opponents missed shots into their own possessions will be a key factor in winning games. On the downsides to this team, their strength of having numerous veteran talents also comes with the weakness of regression and injury. While Harden isn't usually susceptible to injury and isn't close to declining, Conley and Randolph are of greater concern. Conley only played in 56 games last year and his advanced defensive stats were the lowest in his career since his rookie season (1.1 DWS, -1.9 DBPM and 110 DRtg). We will have to closely monitor his progression this season to see if the 29 yr old is beginning his decline (currently at 71 rating). Furthermore, ZBo is now 35 yrs old and coming off the bench in Memphis. While this is most likely due to issues with “fit” and the modern NBA with the Grizzlies, I also think that it is an effective way to minimize the impact of an aging player’s regression. ZBo is easily mismatched against the more mobile and long ranged PF’s of today’s game, assigning him to a bench role where he can still provide his best attributes (offensive post ups and rebounding) while mitigating his defensive shortcomings. He is surely on the wrong side of 30 and I think a compensatory rating is in the future for him (70 seems a bit insane?). With two currently 70 rated players with the potential for reductions, along with a shallow bench (only top 7 above 60), I don’t predict the 76ers to outperform this prediction. They will be relying heavily on Harden this season to carry the bulk of the load offensively, hoping they can simply outscore and rebound their opponents to win. Watch for the 76ers to be a solid team while their players are healthy, but struggle when replacements get an expanded role due to injuries and SW decreases.
Portland Trail Blazers
New Orleans Pelicans (6th): I am back and finished my finals! I plan to finish these up before the new year. Without further ado, in at 6th in the West is our beloved commissioner Billy King and his New Orleans Pelicans! This team is led by one of the league superstars Anthony Davis and sidekicked with former All-Star Jrue Holiday, 1st All-defense winner Avery Bradley, DeMarre Carroll and J,R, “Swish” Smith. The Pelicans and their fans have endured a great deal of losing throughout their D720 history. In the league’s inaugural season, they finished the year with a record of 7-75, only get the 4th overall pick in the lottery. Then last year, the Pelicans improved to 23-59. The long awaited season of success I have predicted to begin this year! The Pels have the potential to be one of the better defenses this season. With AD blocking everything in the paint and then having killer perimeter-D that can switch to practically any position around him, opposing teams will be hard-pressed to score in all facets. Additionally, this team has great 3PT shooting with every starting player being a regular or capable threat from deep. That kind of shooting is quite impressive. Some weaknesses for the Pelicans this season will be at backup PG and overall depth. I have separated the issue of a sufficient backup PG from overall depth because of its glaring downside. Unfortunately, Jrue has been riddled with injuries, playing under 65 games for the past 3 seasons. The only currently rostered guards capable of filling that role is Tyler Johnson (rated 55) and Jerian Grant (rated 52). If Jrue suffers another injury, the Pelicans could be in for a tail spin. Furthermore, only the top 8 of the Pelican’s roster is above a 60, with the bottom 3 at or below 50. A series of injuries to players who aren’t known for their durability lately (such as Carroll, AD, Jrue) could put Billy and his team into possibly another lottery pick year. However, one of the biggest upsides to this team and the reason I think they could easily surpass this prediction is their additional assets. Somewhat similar to the Celtics irl, Billy has accumulated 2 top draft picks this year (with his own as well). Both the Chicago pick and the Dallas pick are projected to be approximately top 5. Two top picks, a young team and a competitive team only points in one direction...a blockbuster trade involving a superstar. If Billy and his team of advisors manage to acquire another star to pair with AD, the Pelicans will be looking to sniff the upper echelons of the Western conference. Look for the Pelicans to shoot the lights out and lock down on their opponents, with the potential for either a boom or bust season.
Orlando Magic (6th): Back to the Eastern conference and in at 6th is Allen Iverson and the Orlando Magic! Led by Chris Paul, Marc Gasol, DeMar DeRozan, CJ McCollum and Greg Monroe, this top heavy and star-studded team is probably ranked lower than you had anticipated. To start, I was most skeptical about this team’s spacing and overall fit. At the beginning of the season, only CJ was a proven and capable long range shooter. Last year on 5.9 3PA, CJ drained 41.7% of them. The next best shooters were CP3 and Garry Harris. The frontcourt of Gasol, Monroe and DeRozan was looking to be one most clogged in the league. This was going to be a team based predominantly off of mid-rangers, a typically inefficient shot. However, Marc Gasol has come into this year (after I made the rankings) with a new and surprising trick up his sleeve - a 3PT shot. With a reworked Marc, I think the Magic can begin to turn their current 4-4 record into a winning one. For the issue of fit, similar to other teams that I have analyzed already, the Magic are currently using some players in unideal places. Essentially, they are starting a PG, two SG’s and two C’s. This leaves them with no defense through positions 2-4, as CJ, DeMar and Greg are not great defenders to begin with, and a peculiar overall gel. Any kind of dominant wing/forward (such as Paul George, any of the Sonic’s big 3, Blake Griffin, etc) is going to have an absolute heyday. Furthermore, all of the starting 5 except Monroe are at about 25% usage this season or more. That many ball dominant players leads to a weird fit. Top it all off, CP3 doesn’t have any shooters other than CJ or any lop-catching bigs to pass to, DeMar has a clogged paint that will surely hinder his slashing and Monroe is stuck playing PF (which I’m sure he is ecstatic about). These questions, along with Marc’s health (which I was quite concerned about) are why I had the Magic at 6th. But, AI and his fans have a lot to look forward to. So far, DeMar is having a career year, CP3 came out to a hot start, Gasol has the 3PT shot, CJ is awesome and Gary is doing well too! A lot of positive signs thus far for a team that I wasn’t sure about. If the Magic are looking to out-do this projection, I think a trade to help round out the starting lineup and address the fit issues will suffice. They will be relying heavily on their veteran stars to maintain their production and remain healthy. This once tanking team has undergone a complete facelift and turned into a competitive and intriguing team to watch out for this year. With a fairly even upper class in the East, watch for Orlando be neck and neck with the best of them. 