Pelicans - Hornets

[Colin Loftin]

New Orleans Pelicans

Jrue Holiday  $10,595,507 $11,286,518
Victor Oladipo  $5,192,520 $6,552,960 $8,551,612

Total Salary Sent: $15,788,027
Total Salary Received: $13,092,591


$15,788,027 / 1.25 = $12,630,422 < $13,092,591



Charlotte Hornets

Damian Lillard  $4,236,286 $5,651,205
Kyle O'Quinn  $4,250,000 $4,250,000 $4,750,000 $5,000,000
Tim Hardaway Jr.  $1,304,520 $2,281,605 $3,335,707
Bruno Caboclo  $1,270,000 $1,324,700 $2,042,687 $2,927,171
Lamar Patterson  $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000

Total Salary Sent: $13,092,591

Total Salary Received: $15,788,027

$13,092,591 * 1.25 = $16,365,738 > $15,788,027



I accept. Trading Lillard is a big deal, but I really like Jrue and Oladipo. By not signing Lillard to the ~22.5M max and moving some lesser contracts, I'll also get some additional cap space for this offseason. I already have what should be a decent bench next year with Collison, Delly, Turner and Lyles, so filling my starting SG spot and adding some cap space I think makes dealing Lillard worth it.

billy

[billy]

I accept cause Dame.

[billy]

Brown Cobb IV
Steve Jobs
Brian Scalabrine
Justin Timberlake
Pete Maravich

[John Stockton]

Bruno Caboclo sports a -7.7 PER...does that mean he is 2 years away from being 2 years away from a positive PER?

[Pete Maravich]

Lillard is a superstar & a top 15 player that is 25.  This is essentially Lillard for Oladipo & one year of Jrue Holiday.  Oladipo & Holiday are still young & solid starters but not enough in return for Lillard.  I believe Charlotte needs another piece in this one.


I reject.

[billy]

May 17, 2016 17:15:39 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

Lillard is a superstar & a top 15 player that is 25.  This is essentially Lillard for Oladipo & one year of Jrue Holiday.  Oladipo & Holiday are still young & solid starters but not enough in return for Lillard.  I believe Charlotte needs another piece in this one.


I reject.

It's worth being noted that oladipo and Holiday both come with bird rights via the new rules, so "one year of holiday" isn't a very correct assessment.

It would be rare for a player to leave a team who has their bird rights, because that team can offer an extra year in free agency.

[Pete Maravich]

May 17, 2016 17:19:29 GMT -5 billy said:

May 17, 2016 17:15:39 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

Lillard is a superstar & a top 15 player that is 25.  This is essentially Lillard for Oladipo & one year of Jrue Holiday.  Oladipo & Holiday are still young & solid starters but not enough in return for Lillard.  I believe Charlotte needs another piece in this one.


I reject.

It's worth being noted that oladipo and Holiday both come with bird rights via the new rules, so "one year of holiday" isn't a very correct assessment.

It would be rare for a player to leave a team who has their bird rights, because that team can offer an extra year in free agency.

Bird rights mostly play a factor for max players for which I don't believe Holiday qualifies.

[billy]

May 17, 2016 17:53:15 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

May 17, 2016 17:19:29 GMT -5 billy said:

It's worth being noted that oladipo and Holiday both come with bird rights via the new rules, so "one year of holiday" isn't a very correct assessment.

It would be rare for a player to leave a team who has their bird rights, because that team can offer an extra year in free agency.

Bird rights mostly play a factor for max players for which I don't believe Holiday qualifies.

So then if he isn't a max player, then Colin should have absolutely no problem keeping him by just paying him what he is worth.

[Pete Maravich]

May 17, 2016 18:19:22 GMT -5 billy said:

May 17, 2016 17:53:15 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

Bird rights mostly play a factor for max players for which I don't believe Holiday qualifies.

So then if he isn't a max player, then Colin should have absolutely no problem keeping him by just paying him what he is worth.

He then has to outbid everyone else interested in order to retain Jrue which is no guarantee.  For example, if Jrue is worth $10 million and someone offers $15 then where is the value return?  The point is, I don't know if Bird Rights can really be factored in on a trade value unless the player is clearly max level.

[billy]

May 17, 2016 18:42:13 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

May 17, 2016 18:19:22 GMT -5 billy said:

So then if he isn't a max player, then Colin should have absolutely no problem keeping him by just paying him what he is worth.

He then has to outbid everyone else interested in order to retain Jrue which is no guarantee.  For example, if Jrue is worth $10 million and someone offers $15 then where is the value return?  The point is, I don't know if Bird Rights can really be factored in on a trade value unless the player is clearly max level.

It definitely matters. Colin can take all the cap savings and fill out his team this year up to the cap and be able to offer Jrue whatever he needs to to keep him.

[John Stockton]

I think the fact that Charlotte also traded for Jrue gives him a leg up on whoever tries to sign him over Colin.

[Steve Jobs]

Oladipo and Jrue going through free agency at the same time, and costing upwards of 30M when they do, completely negates the ~$5M that this trade makes in cap space for this offseason. And Colin has plenty of money to sign Lillard this offseason, however, the amount of cap space this trade opens up for use this offseason don't allow him to chase an extra free agent that's worth much. Not rejecting outright, but I think the Hornets are much better off keeping Lillard here.

[Colin Loftin]

May 17, 2016 21:44:06 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

Oladipo and Jrue going through free agency at the same time, and costing upwards of 30M when they do, completely negates the ~$5M that this trade makes in cap space for this offseason. And Colin has plenty of money to sign Lillard this offseason, however, the amount of cap space this trade opens up for use this offseason don't allow him to chase an extra free agent that's worth much. Not rejecting outright, but I think the Hornets are much better off keeping Lillard here.

I agree with some of this. However in my eyes, it's not so much whether or not I have cap space for Lillard, it's do I have enough cap space after Lillard to have a good enough team to win. Signing Lillard to somewhere around ~22M leaves only ~18M or so in cap space for a 90M cap. That 18M would have to come up with both a good SG and SF. Last offseason Wes Matthews went for somewhere around 14M. 

This trade gives me the good SG for only 6.5M and shaves 10M going from Lillard to Holiday. I figure I'll have around 30M to spend with the only hole in my starting lineup at SF. I can either spend most of it on that, or spread it around and get some additional firepower on the bench. 

With bird rights on all my players going forward, I'd pretty much be able to keep together whichever guys I want.

It's up to y'all, and I'm fine with whatever is decided, just wanted to elaborate a little further on my thinking.

[Steve Jobs]

So, after Lillard this offseason, without moving anybody else, you'd have about $17.1M to spend on other free agents... But find a trade for the other four guys you included in this trade that cleared 8,856,305 in cap space, and you'll have roughly 26M available, which is close enough to realistically chase a second superstar to pair with Lillard.

With Jrue and Oladipo, you've filled your PG and SG starter spots and really only need a SF, and have about $30M to do so. Obviously you're looking for a franchise guy like Lillard with that money there... except the only one available is KD and he might be the single most hotly contested commodity possible, since he's the biggest free agent to ever go through free agency before Bird Rights exist that actually has a chance of leaving.

Moral of the story is, more money in a deep but not top heavy free agent class isn't necessarily a great thing. The most common theory about building NBA teams is that you have to have a legitimate superstar if you want a chance at a championship. Most teams here have completely tanked their depth for a chance to trade for a superstar and don't think twice about it. For you to trade yours for cap space and a couple of mid-tier players (one of whom is very injury prone - 139 games played in the last three seasons, and less than 100 of them as a starter!) that you'll still have to spend huge money on when you re-sign them a year later (especially since the cap jumps again to >100M), it just seems kind of... strange.

That said, I like Jrue and Oladipo. I don't think either guy can come close to matching Lillard's production, and I'm not sure the other benefits you see here aren't being massively overrated, but ultimately it's you're decision how you build a team.

I kinda want to reject this one. Still not sure though.

[billy]

Brian Scalabrine
Justin Timberlake

[Justin Timberlake]

I think Charlotte should have went for a playoff run this year. Lillard on his rookie contract, a 70 rated Ibaka lol, BroLo healthy, Ariza, etc. With some juggling around I think that could've been a top team. Oh well.

But for the trade, I'm still thinking. Leaning towards a reject but I will make my final decision tonight. Both of you are experienced owners so I don't like interfering - but this is a big trade.

[Brown Cobb IV]

ok i took a while to vote here because there were a couple things I wanted to research.
firstly, if Liliard qualifies for an All-NBA team this year (which I believe he does) it will be 2nd in his rookie deal. This means he will qualify for the "Rose rule". This means his starting salary will be 30% of the cap next year, with raises of 10% (normally it would be 7.5% but for some reason the max raises in our league is 10% ). This puts his starting salary at $27,300,000...which is a lot of money, but thats ok because at this point of time he is worth that. But Liliard isnt like most players coming of a rookie deal, most players are 22 coming of a rookie deal so teams dont mind shelling out the cash for a player as his 2nd contract will end while he is still 20. The issue with Liliard is that he played 4 years in College and is actually now 26 years old. This combined with the fact that in our league the max deal is 6 years means that he will be 32 when his upcoming contract ends. Basically where im going with this is that Lilliard will be making ~35-40 million at ages 30 to 32 and it could end up as a carmelo situation. Just thought I should point this out that Colin is right, its not that cut and dry, Lilliard's age complicates thing and it will definitely hamper cap flexibility in the future.

[billy]

May 18, 2016 21:38:11 GMT -5 Brown Cobb IV said:

ok i took a while to vote here because there were a couple things I wanted to research.
firstly, if Liliard qualifies for an All-NBA team this year (which I believe he does) it will be 2nd in his rookie deal. This means he will qualify for the "Rose rule". This means his starting salary will be 30% of the cap next year, with raises of 10% (normally it would be 7.5% but for some reason the max raises in our league is 10% ). This puts his starting salary at $27,300,000...which is a lot of money, but thats ok because at this point of time he is worth that. But Liliard isnt like most players coming of a rookie deal, most players are 22 coming of a rookie deal so teams dont mind shelling out the cash for a player as his 2nd contract will end while he is still 20. The issue with Liliard is that he played 4 years in College and is actually now 26 years old. This combined with the fact that in our league the max deal is 6 years means that he will be 32 when his upcoming contract ends. Basically where im going with this is that Lilliard will be making ~35-40 million at ages 30 to 32 and it could end up as a carmelo situation. Just thought I should point this out that Colin is right, its not that cut and dry, Lilliard's age complicates thing and it will definitely hamper cap flexibility in the future.

please reject this trade :P

[Justin Timberlake]

After lots of thinking I'm going to accept.

Lillard is extremely durable and an all star. While Jrue, as we know, has injury history and neither him nor Oladipo are at the all star level yet. Furthermore, I initially didn't like the fact that Charlotte was also giving OQuinn, Hardaway, etc. I realize they don't have much value, but still some.

On the other hand, Jrue is incredibly effective irl and in the sim. He's got to be pretty close to a 70 now I think? And as long as he doesn't miss extended time irl, Charlotte can use him as much as he'd like. For Colin's sake, let's hope the irl Pelicans keep Jrue on a minute restriction. Brown Cobb's assessment was also a large factor in my decision to vote to accept. Lillard's age and eventual salary has the potential to be quite insane. Dodging that kind of bullet might turn out to be a smart move on behalf of Charlotte. But the biggest factor was the GMs involved. Both are experienced and knowledgeable managers that I know would've put a lot of thought into a trade like this. If this is a deal you like, we shouldn't interfere with that.

Good luck, dudes.

[billy]

Vote stands at 1-1

Brian Scalabrine
Steve Jobs
Brown Cobb IV

[Pete Maravich]

May 18, 2016 22:58:20 GMT -5 billy said:

May 18, 2016 21:38:11 GMT -5 Brown Cobb IV said:

ok i took a while to vote here because there were a couple things I wanted to research.
firstly, if Liliard qualifies for an All-NBA team this year (which I believe he does) it will be 2nd in his rookie deal. This means he will qualify for the "Rose rule". This means his starting salary will be 30% of the cap next year, with raises of 10% (normally it would be 7.5% but for some reason the max raises in our league is 10% ). This puts his starting salary at $27,300,000...which is a lot of money, but thats ok because at this point of time he is worth that. But Liliard isnt like most players coming of a rookie deal, most players are 22 coming of a rookie deal so teams dont mind shelling out the cash for a player as his 2nd contract will end while he is still 20. The issue with Liliard is that he played 4 years in College and is actually now 26 years old. This combined with the fact that in our league the max deal is 6 years means that he will be 32 when his upcoming contract ends. Basically where im going with this is that Lilliard will be making ~35-40 million at ages 30 to 32 and it could end up as a carmelo situation. Just thought I should point this out that Colin is right, its not that cut and dry, Lilliard's age complicates thing and it will definitely hamper cap flexibility in the future.

please reject this trade :P

This is being exaggerated a bit.  He is 25 right now.  His max contract age years will be 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.  That is basically your prime years.  If you are not paying max money for these years then I don't know when you will be.  Lamarcus Aldridge just signed a max deal IRL at 30.

[Brown Cobb IV]

accept,

[Brown Cobb IV]

May 19, 2016 9:38:22 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

May 18, 2016 22:58:20 GMT -5 billy said:

please reject this trade :P

This is being exaggerated a bit.  He is 25 right now.  His max contract age years will be 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.  That is basically your prime years.  If you are not paying max money for these years then I don't know when you will be.  Lamarcus Aldridge just signed a max deal IRL at 30.

incorrect, he turns 26 in a month which means under the new contract he will be 26. 2nd of all our league here uses 6 years as the max length not 5 , combined with the fact we use 10% max raises not 7.5 its gonna be a shit contract at the end

[Pete Maravich]

May 19, 2016 9:45:15 GMT -5 Brown Cobb IV said:

May 19, 2016 9:38:22 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

This is being exaggerated a bit.  He is 25 right now.  His max contract age years will be 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.  That is basically your prime years.  If you are not paying max money for these years then I don't know when you will be.  Lamarcus Aldridge just signed a max deal IRL at 30.

incorrect, he turns 26 in a month which means under the new contract he will be 26. 2nd of all our league here uses 6 years as the max length not 5 , combined with the fact we use 10% max raises not 7.5 its gonna be a shit contract at the end

Meaning he will be 26 for the first year of the contract as I said.  Also, the 6th year is determined by the Bird Rights which he does not have unless that is changed by the rule that was just passed.  The value is always at the front end of the max deal.  We are talking about a top 15 player on contract from ages 26-30.  What am I missing?

[Steve Jobs]

May 19, 2016 9:45:15 GMT -5 Brown Cobb IV said:

May 19, 2016 9:38:22 GMT -5 Pete Maravich said:

This is being exaggerated a bit.  He is 25 right now.  His max contract age years will be 26, 27, 28, 29, & 30.  That is basically your prime years.  If you are not paying max money for these years then I don't know when you will be.  Lamarcus Aldridge just signed a max deal IRL at 30.

incorrect, he turns 26 in a month which means under the new contract he will be 26. 2nd of all our league here uses 6 years as the max length not 5 , combined with the fact we use 10% max raises not 7.5 its gonna be a shit contract at the end

We only use 6 years for Birds, which Lillard does not have.

[Steve Jobs]

I still maintain any team is better paying 30% of their cap space for Lillard than upwards of 50% of it to Jrue and Oladipo. I reject.

[billy]

2-2

[Brian Scalabrine]

I've got to reject here. Lillard is just TOO good, he's a top ten player in my opinion, and the offer for him isn't strong enough.

[billy]

Trade Rejected.

Colin and Billy dejected.

[John Stockton]

May 19, 2016 12:14:04 GMT -5 billy said:

Trade Rejected.

Colin and Billy dejected.

back to the drawing board!