Stock Watch 2015-16 Meta-Analysis

[Allan Houston]

This data isn't perfect, but it should be close.  There was some wonkiness over the course of the season, mostly with Brown Cobb trying to override other GMs' votes.  But for the most part, things were in order, and if not I did my best to fix them.

This season, there were 152 players put up for stock watch, 151 of which had their rating changed (Sorry Nurkic; but thanks for inspiring us to leave polls open longer)

The following GMs voted the most:

Rank	GM	Votes	Notes
1.	Allan Houston	152
2.	Billy King	150	Not confident on JaMychal Green or Andre Roberson?
3.	John Stockton	131
4.	Reggie Miller	130	So close to sneaking into the top 3
5.	Justin Timberlake	126
6.	Steve Jobs	102
7.	Paul Pierce	94
8.	Logan Hough	80
9.	Brian Scalabrine	65
10.	Colin Loftin	61
11.	DJ Jazzy Jeff	59
12.	Pistol Pete	49
13.	Brown Cobb	46	It's pretty likely some of his votes were lost.
T14.	Stan Van Gundy	28
T14.	Gheorghe Muresan	28	RIP. Most votes by a non-active member
T16.	Luke Walton	25
T16.	Theodore Duncan	25
18.	Milt Newton	20
19.	Ricky Spanish	18	RIP
20.	Hanamichi Sakuragi	17	RIP
21.	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	13
22.	Keith Van Horn	8
T23.	Ari Gold	7
T23.	Ghost Billy King	7	I think this might have been Brown Cobb
25.	Steven Rogers	6
26.	Doc Rivers	3
T27.	Tony Stark	2
T27.	Steven Armstead	2	RIP
29.	Allen Iverson	1

Thanks everyone for their votes. Those of you who neglected to vote, you're encouraged to do so next season! More votes = more accurate results.

The average change was +1.9.  It's a little worrying that there's rating inflation, but I think one mitigating factor is that there are more likely to be rating increases than decreases.  There were 87 rating increases this season, compared to only 62 decreases.  Nurkic, again, didn't get enough votes to change.  Brandon Bass and Al Horford were voted to remain at the same rating.

Why are there more likely to be increases than decreases?  For one, it's always beneficial to stock watch your own guys who are due increases. For decreases, GMs need to target other teams, and that takes a bit more effort, and comes with fear of reprisal.  Furthermore, underrated players who are unrostered are picked up and stock watched.  Overrated players who are unrostered remain unrostered, with no one bothering to stock watch them.

Also, it's telling that the median change was +1.  Since the mean is larger, that means that increases were larger than decreases. Part of that is because there were some <45 players who were increases to rotational level guys, whereas decreases would never go below 45.

Which players had the largest changes in a single stock watch?

	Top 5 Biggest Increases
Rank	Player	Old Rating	New Rating	Change
1.	Dewayne Dedmon	34	57	+23
T2.	Zaza Pachulia	40	60	+20
T2.	Cole Aldrich	38	58	+20
4.	Norman Powell	40	58	+18
5.	Rodney Hood	46	62	+16

	Top 5 Biggest Decreases
Rank	Player	Old Rating	New Rating	Change
1.	Carlos Boozer	64	50	-14
T2.	JaVale McGee	63	52	-11
T2.	Jermaine O'neal	59	48	-11
T2.	Marshon Brooks	60	49	-11
T2.	Chris Kaman	63	52	-11

Which GMs deviated from the final result the most?  Who were the most negative and who the most positive?  Using mean signed deviation, the most generous, by far, voter was Doc Rivers.  Granted, he only voted 3 times, so hasn't gotten a feel for it yet. That said, he overrated players, relative to the final votes, by and average of 8 1/3 points.

Following Doc is Tony Stark, who in his 2 votes overrated players by an average of 4.5 points. Steven Rogers was +3 average above the result in his 6 votes. Next is Kareem, averaging +2.6 in his 13 votes. Then we have Hanamichi, RIP, +2.05 in 17 votes. And finally, Steve Rogers, +2 in 6 votes.

The differentials on the other side, of those who were much less generous in their votes, are a bit less drastic. That's mostly because they tended to vote more often.  It seems like new guys come in and overrate players, whereas the vets are more cynical.  As we can see, the most votes among the top five most generous voters were Hanamichi's 17.  You'll notice a difference with this next group.

The most negative voter was Milt Newton, who voted on average 1.6 points less than the result, having voted 20 times.  Ignoring Ghost Billy King, bc I don't know who those 7 votes really belong to, I come in next at -1.5.  To be honest, I thought I'd top this list, often noticing that I voted a player the lowest.  But I voted every time for a total of 152 votes, so outliers don't affect much.  In third is Theodore Duncan, who in 25 votes averaged -1.16.  Next is Keith Van Horn, -1 in 8 votes.  Finally, rounding out the top (or should I say bottom) five is Logan Hough, -.66 in 80 votes.


Once again, thanks everyone for their participation. I think our method this season was very successful, and I hope that success continues.  And I encourage more votes, more stock watch proposals, and more discussion as we move forward, as those things can only help the league.

If there's anything you want to know, or request, or change about the stock watch, feel free to reach out to me.

[Allan Houston]

	Most Controversial Changes
Rank	Player	Standard Deviation	Notes
1.	Marshon Brooks	17.11	John Stockton giving his boy a 99
2.	Willie Reed	13.20	Steve Jobs gives my boy an 18. Rude.
3.	Hasheem Thabeet	8.03	DJ Jazzy Jeff throwing out a 20. Reasonably
4.	Jordan Crawford	5.55	Ranging from 45 (JT and Logan) to 60 (Hanamichi, RIP)
5.	Wesley Matthews	4.71	Most people thought he was still in solid starter range. Me and John Stockton saw some injury concerns.

	Least Controversial Changes
Rank	Player	Standard Deviation	Notes
1.	Russell Westbrook	0.52	Everyone voted either 81 or 82
2.	Alexis Ajinca	0.60	Surprised by this agreement. Five ppl voted 57, two 58, one 56
3.	DeMarcus Cousins	0.95	With an impressive 13 votes, all were between 76 (me) and 79 (Steve Jobs)
4.	Derrick Favors	1.04	Everyone except for John Stockton (73) voted 70 or 71. John's got the strategic voting down. Fortunately, we deal well with outliers.
5.	Greg Monroe	1.07	Mostly 68-69. Logan Hough low at 67; JT at 70 and Luke Walton high at 7

[John Stockton]

Marshon Brooks 17.11 John Stockton giving his boy a 99

lol

[Steve Jobs]

Jun 21, 2016 23:01:50 GMT -5 Allan Houston said:

	Most Controversial Changes
Rank	Player	Standard Deviation	Notes
1.	Marshon Brooks	17.11	John Stockton giving his boy a 99
2.	Willie Reed	13.20	Steve Jobs gives my boy an 18. Rude.
3.	Hasheem Thabeet	8.03	DJ Jazzy Jeff throwing out a 20. Reasonably
4.	Jordan Crawford	5.55	Ranging from 45 (JT and Logan) to 60 (Hanamichi, RIP)
5.	Wesley Matthews	4.71	Most people thought he was still in solid starter range. Me and John Stockton saw some injury concerns.

	Least Controversial Changes
Rank	Player	Standard Deviation	Notes
1.	Russell Westbrook	0.52	Everyone voted either 81 or 82
2.	Alexis Ajinca	0.60	Surprised by this agreement. Five ppl voted 57, two 58, one 56
3.	DeMarcus Cousins	0.95	With an impressive 13 votes, all were between 76 (me) and 79 (Steve Jobs)
4.	Derrick Favors	1.04	Everyone except for John Stockton (73) voted 70 or 71. John's got the strategic voting down. Fortunately, we deal well with outliers.
5.	Greg Monroe	1.07	Mostly 68-69. Logan Hough low at 67; JT at 70 and Luke Walton high at 7

I don't recall the Willie Reed vote... Can't imagine giving a player an 18, let alone a player that I didn't research enough to remember why I would give him an 18. Must have been some kind of mistake.