Brandon Jennings - Memphis

[Steve Jobs]

Has a group of offers he thinks are worth considering, but he'll be making his decision within the next day so make sure you get in your offers now.

[Steve Jobs]

Brandon struggled for a couple of days with this decision, but he's going to finalize his choice to join the Memphis Grizzlies.

The offer ---

1. The contract we are offering is:

2016/17: $7,500,000
2017/18: $7,500,000
2018/19: $7,500,000 (TO)

2. The Grizz are using FA this year to find their starting PG. We extended offers to many guards, but even without losing out on Conley and Dragic, we value the skill set that Jennings brings to the table very highly; it would compliment our front court beyond the simple positional improvement Jennings would bring to our team.

3. A championship is our goal. Over the course of last year and this off season, we have assembled an elite core and now we are shrewdly using our remaining cap space to acquire the remaining piece (Jennings as a starting Ball Handler) we need to complete our team. We believe Jennings will find the personal and team success all athletes strive for, in Memphis, this coming season.

---

Congrats Logan Hough, he will be a good addition to the team.

Runners up: Milwaukee and Golden State.

[Gregg Popovich]

damnit

[billy]

Jul 23, 2016 8:47:45 GMT -5 Gregg Popovich said:

damnit

Starting was just too hard to pass up -- especially for a likely playoff team

[Gregg Popovich]

Jul 23, 2016 8:53:50 GMT -5 billy said:

Jul 23, 2016 8:47:45 GMT -5 Gregg Popovich said:

damnit

Starting was just too hard to pass up -- especially for a likely playoff team

am i considered a playoff team or no and check PM

[billy]

Jul 23, 2016 8:57:42 GMT -5 Gregg Popovich said:

Jul 23, 2016 8:53:50 GMT -5 billy said:

Starting was just too hard to pass up -- especially for a likely playoff team

am i considered a playoff team or no and check PM

You were definitely a playoff team before you traded JC. You'd be a 4th seed in the East but as you know the west is stacked.

[Baron Davis]

This isn't what Jennings would do in real life for sure. There is no chance he would agree to a third year team option he's a potential max player when healthy and not a ring chaser

[Baron Davis]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. He took a 1 year deal because he wanted to show his value coming off injury and then get paid next year

[Gregg Popovich]

Jul 23, 2016 10:09:42 GMT -5 Baron Davis said:

Yeah that's what I'm saying. He took a 1 year deal because he wanted to show his value coming off injury and then get paid next year

i agree - that's exactly what i did but apparently it wasnt enough bcuz he wasn't starting...whats wrong with being sixth man

[Gregg Popovich]

"We're aiming to start negotiations 15M on a longer term deal. If you aren't interested in offering a 5 year deal, we would consider taking less for a "prove it" contract (1 year or 1+1) as we believe Brandon's injury is a thing of the past and know we could easily stand to increase our earning potential by re-entering free agency after a year of strong production and another cap jump."

This is what Steve said to me as the player agent - as a result I offered him 13M and 14M respectively with PO in the second year.

I can't comprehend how a three year 7.5M (22.5M) with the last year with QO is remotely close to my offer which is 13 + 14 with PO.

Brandon Jennings didn't want to become a RFA but this contradicts what has been offered.

Your justification can't be just that he's starting in a playoff team...

[Steve Jobs]

Jul 23, 2016 10:18:45 GMT -5 Gregg Popovich said:

"We're aiming to start negotiations 15M on a longer term deal. If you aren't interested in offering a 5 year deal, we would consider taking less for a "prove it" contract (1 year or 1+1) as we believe Brandon's injury is a thing of the past and know we could easily stand to increase our earning potential by re-entering free agency after a year of strong production and another cap jump."

This is what Steve said to me as the player agent - as a result I offered him 13M and 14M respectively with PO in the second year.

I can't comprehend how a three year 7.5M (22.5M) with the last year with QO is remotely close to my offer which is 13 + 14 with PO.

Brandon Jennings didn't want to become a RFA but this contradicts what has been offered.

Your justification can't be just that he's starting in a playoff team...

A) The fact that you'd bring my private negotiations into a public setting is incredibly poor form, and I hope you don't expect any of my free agents to heavily consider your offers anymore.

B) You do know I'm not single-handedly responsible for choosing Brandon's destination, right? I put together three offers that I felt were the best for Brandon, placed them in front of a group of PAs, gave my case for each and made my vote, then allowed four other PAs to cast their votes. When all 5 votes were cast, Memphis took best out of 5.

C) You know there are other factors that a player can take into account over money, right? Role is important, a GM/front office that doesn't attempt to trade away all their best players in drunkenness is important, contract is important, teammates are important, location is important. Your contract you offered was great, your role was mediocre (coming off the bench behind Lillard is a death sentence for a player that believes in their abilities), and there were certainly other issues there.

D) a Qualifying Offer goes at the end of rookie deals and allows the team to match a contract offer in free agency for their "Restricted Free Agent." A Team Option is not a QO, and it means the team gets to choose to pick up the option... if the player gets to choose it is called a Player Option. Not knowing the difference and extending a QO contract originally wasnt exactly the most promising part of your offer.

E) The 1+1 deal with a Player Option was a preferred contract if we couldn't get a long contract worth a lot, IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH YOUR TEAM. With other teams, I may have started negotiations the exact same or a little different, that's up to my discretion and I've never cheated a team with an offer deserving of consideration. But the contract wasn't the only thing that was important to us, and in this case there were several people who agreed that there were enough positives elsewhere in Memphis' offer to outweigh the non-ideal contract.

F) if you'd like to discuss it further, I'd love to do it privately instead of here.

[billy]

Jul 23, 2016 10:09:42 GMT -5 Baron Davis said:

Yeah that's what I'm saying. He took a 1 year deal because he wanted to show his value coming off injury and then get paid next year

You are right, Baron. The most similar contract would have been the one GSW offered (a 1+1). However, "real life personality" is merely one of the many aspects we take into account here. Here is the full list:

1. Money Offered (Player Agents will work to keep salaries realistic, but it doesn't hurt to show you're committed)
2. Playing time.
3. The chances of success with your team (playoff/championship caliber)
4. How much dedication you have shown to the player.
5. The perceived effort you put into making an offer.
6. A player's perceived real-life personality traits.
7. Whether your team is a "big market" team, or a team with "prestige" or history.

To be honest we don't know what contracts he was offered in real life, and what contracts he left on the table when he decided to sign with the Knicks. It could've been 0. Did anyone offer him the starting point guard job on a very competitive team that will certainly make the playoffs? I'm gonna guess no. Maybe this signing is slightly out of character for what Brandon Jennings did this offeason (though he requested to be traded to Orlando because he wanted to not play behind a franchise PG), I think it's in-character enough to not be considered a bad signing. I think 720 Brandon Jennings is happy with his destination :)

Maybe BJ signed a "prove it" deal with the Knicks not because of the money in 2017, but because he wants a chance to be considered a starting PG when 2017 rolls around? Neither of us know.

[Logan Hough]

You gotta get drunk and announce mega - signings of the century instead, like Jim Irsay.

[Gregg Popovich]

Jul 23, 2016 11:58:00 GMT -5 Logan Hough said:

You gotta get drunk and announce mega - signings of the century instead, like Jim Irsay.

regardless, congrats on Jennings.

[Baron Davis]

Jul 23, 2016 11:00:38 GMT -5 billy said:

I think you are all deeply understating the difference in contract between what GSW offered and what MEM offered. Consider the following two cases:

1. Brandon Jennings is good. With the GSW contract he denies his player option and signs for the max or near max. We'll say $25 mil. In three years he makes $62 million. With the MEM contract MEM picks up their option and he makes $22 million.

2. Brandon Jennings is bad. With the GSW contract he picks up his player option and makes $27 million in 2 years. With the MEM contract MEM rejects their option and he makes $15 million over 2 years.

His lifetime earnings are only $34 million, and he's at risk of being out of the league if he doesn't come out well from his injury. Options matter there is no way any player at age 26 would make this decision.

Having said that, I'm ultimately ok if the way the league is going to work is free agents are generally going to be biased toward going to playoff teams. That's fine with me. But then the TC has to allow teams to try to make trades that get them into the playoff hunt, even if it seems like the zoomed in trade is imbalanced, because being in the playoff hunt opens you up to all of these free agents apparently willing to take sweetheart deals where they give up tens of millions of dollars.

Also, Jennings is going to be 6th man on the Knicks this year so I have no idea what you are talking about BK.

[billy]

Jul 23, 2016 13:17:10 GMT -5 Baron Davis said:

Jul 23, 2016 11:00:38 GMT -5 billy said:

Also, Jennings is going to be 6th man on the Knicks this year so I have no idea what you are talking about BK.

?

And by doing that put himself into contention to become a starting point guard!

My point is you can't tell if his reasoning for wanting to sign a 1 year deal is because of the money, or because he wants to be able to be a starter in 2017 (no one offered him that this year).

Like, do you honestly believe that if a very strong playoff team had came up to brandon jennings this year and offered him the starting point guard job he would've said no and signed a 1+1 somewhere else?

Nah. He wants to start, and in real life he didn't have an offer to start. That's my interpretation of how his offseason went.

[Baron Davis]

Jennings could be the projected starter for the Nets right now if starting was his priority.

I would go as far as making the completely unresearched claim that there has never been a 26 year old player coming off injury that gave up $20-40 million for any reason. Certainly no player that wasn't already making millions of dollars off a shoe deal. The closest I can think of is maybe Larry Sanders, but that was for off the court issues/mental health. Then again, BJ and Larry Sanders were on the Bucks together...

[billy]

Jul 23, 2016 13:52:55 GMT -5 Baron Davis said:

Jennings could be the projected starter for the Nets right now if starting was his priority.

I would go as far as making the completely unresearched claim that there has never been a 26 year old player coming off injury that gave up $20-40 million for any reason. Certainly no player that wasn't already making millions of dollars off a shoe deal. The closest I can think of is maybe Larry Sanders, but that was for off the court issues/mental health. Then again, BJ and Larry Sanders were on the Bucks together...

This also gives Memphis an opportunity to get his Bird rights and an even bigger payday if you really think brandon jennings is thinking about maximizing his 2020 salary so much

[Logan Hough]

I'll say this, Jennings took less than I offered, IRL, and might have been offered more, we don't know. A more general opinion of mine is that money isn't everything and I think my team I clearly the best in contention. I don't see this as such a reach and we are glad to have Jennings on board.

[Baron Davis]

Jul 23, 2016 13:59:55 GMT -5 Logan Hough said:

I'll say this, Jennings took less than I offered, IRL, and might have been offered more, we don't know. A more general opinion of mine is that money isn't everything and I think my team I clearly the best in contention. I don't see this as such a reach and we are glad to have Jennings on board.

This is the point I'm trying to address. Jennings did not take less IRL, not even close. 3 years 22.5 million with third year team option is a much worse contract than 1 year 5 million for a player who was the best player on a playoff team at age 22 who is still 26. It's not even close, really. And the GSW contract is absurdly good. When I heard that that kind of contract was in the running, I figured he would obviously pick that. If y'all said the reason why you had BJ choose MEM over GSW is because you didn't want to let GSW make franchise hurting signings, that might make more sense.

To be clear, though, congrats on signing BJ Logan Hough - you got an awesome deal

[Steve Jobs]

Jul 23, 2016 14:10:12 GMT -5 Baron Davis said:

Jul 23, 2016 13:59:55 GMT -5 Logan Hough said:

I'll say this, Jennings took less than I offered, IRL, and might have been offered more, we don't know. A more general opinion of mine is that money isn't everything and I think my team I clearly the best in contention. I don't see this as such a reach and we are glad to have Jennings on board.

This is the point I'm trying to address. Jennings did not take less IRL, not even close. 3 years 22.5 million with third year team option is a much worse contract than 1 year 5 million for a player who was the best player on a playoff team at age 22 who is still 26. It's not even close, really. And the GSW contract is absurdly good. When I heard that that kind of contract was in the running, I figured he would obviously pick that. If y'all said the reason why you had BJ choose MEM over GSW is because you didn't want to let GSW make franchise hurting signings, that might make more sense.

To be clear, though, congrats on signing BJ Logan Hough - you got an awesome deal

To be 100% clear for more than the 2nd time: Money is very, very, very important to all of the PAs.  I've never been a PA where I didn't ask multiple times of every offerer that was in the running to increase their offer because I want the most for my players.

With that said, money IS. NOT. EVERYTHING.  There is a guide, which Billy posted directly in his response, but which I will post again, that shows what things matter:

1. Money Offered (Player Agents will work to keep salaries realistic, but it doesn't hurt to show you're committed)
2. Playing time.
3. The chances of success with your team (playoff/championship caliber)
4. How much dedication you have shown to the player.
5. The perceived effort you put into making an offer.
6. A player's perceived real-life personality traits.
7. Whether your team is a "big market" team, or a team with "prestige" or history.

Players go for most money, but playing time, chances of success, and many other factors play into the decision.  Not listed here, but something we've been trying to take into account because it is very true to real life: players avoid front offices that seem to be less stable.  We tend to understate the desire for most players that stability in an organization is very important, and included in that is not just a GM making strange/incompetent moves, but also GM turnover in general.  

And in Kwame's case, of course we have no intention or desire to penalize him forever for his drunken trades, nor for his indecision in whether to contend or maximize the value of his next pick or two (that decision is difficult and he's had mere days to choose, no judgment here), but these things still factor into my decisions when I'm personally voting on where a player should go, and I believe that other PAs make decision with these things in mind as well.  Sometimes these things take time to iron out.  


So back to the contract: Brandon's choice here was between two organizations that offered 2+1 contracts and GSW with a 1+1.  The 1+1 was very important to me in the decision, but the combination of other factors against GSW or toward Memphis made the decision between the two much more equal.  Imagine if Brandon's real life choice had been between the Knicks with a 2+1(to) and the Kings with a 1+1 for more money... would you honestly question it that much if Brandon chose the Knicks longer contract?  Now, come next free agency, there's a good chance this signing would have looked more "true" to real life because this GSW organization is a year stronger/wiser and has had the time to regain the trust of players/agents, and furthermore, this is all just an attempt to be as objective as possible anyway.  No one here made any decisions single-handedly to put a player on a roster out of spite or corruption.  3 out of 5 PAs made a choice that Brandon would choose this deal and we're sticking by that.  I hope we can lay this discussion to bed and not sit here quarreling needlessly over the fine ins and outs of player decision making.  We didn't spend a day talking about KDs decision, and that one has far larger implications on the league than Brandon's.

[Baron Davis]

Jul 23, 2016 14:34:24 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

So back to the contract: Brandon's choice here was between two organizations that offered 2+1 contracts and GSW with a 1+1.  The 1+1 was very important to me in the decision, but the combination of other factors against GSW or toward Memphis made the decision between the two much more equal.  Imagine if Brandon's real life choice had been between the Knicks with a 2+1(to) and the Kings with a 1+1 for more money... would you honestly question it that much if Brandon chose the Knicks longer contract?  Now, come next free agency, there's a good chance this signing would have looked more "true" to real life because this GSW organization is a year stronger/wiser and has had the time to regain the trust of players/agents, and furthermore, this is all just an attempt to be as objective as possible anyway.  No one here made any decisions single-handedly to put a player on a roster out of spite or corruption.  3 out of 5 PAs made a choice that Brandon would choose this deal and we're sticking by that.  I hope we can lay this discussion to bed and not sit here quarreling needlessly over the fine ins and outs of player decision making.  We didn't spend a day talking about KDs decision, and that one has far larger implications on the league than Brandon's.

Yes, I think if the real life choice was between the Knicks with a 2-1 or the Kings with 1+1 for much more money ($20 to $40 million), BJ would pick the Kings 10 times out of 10. (If this wasn't true, the Knicks would be getting players for nothing all the time and be super good) And the Knicks contract is not longer (at least in any way that long = good). The team option only screws you, it's a 2 year contract. And let's be clear, the d720 GSW are one of the best 5-10 organizations in the league right now, regardless of the JC trade (it's also unclear to me how the TC works within the "universe" of the game, do the players know they were almost traded or is it like it never happened?). If you are looking for the Kings of d720, that would be the d720 Kings (*sobs hysterically*). 

I'm all about having the 7 or 8 factors for free agency, that's more fun and obviously everything matters to players when they decide. But money is the most important by far. You can't wave away $20-40 million when your lifetime earnings are $30 million because no player in the history of the NBA has done so. That's why Jeremy Lin is in Brooklyn. That's why Greg Monroe is in Milwaukee. Or here's a great example: Manu Ginobli (a Spurs legend in probably the final year of his career on a contending team who has shown himself willing to take less money to try to win in the past) was willing to take less money to stay with the Spurs, but when Philly (47-199 in the last three years) offered him 1 year $16 million, the spurs had to give him $14 million to keep him. BJ is in his prime, hasn't banked nearly as much as Manu, doesn't have a rich history with the team, and so on. He wouldn't just eat $20-40 million for any reason.

[Gregg Popovich]

Whether this argument is valid or not (not my intention to be involved in anymore...im just going to move on) I respect Baron Davis for such eloquent argument and fire in his heart.

[Logan Hough]

You say that but it's what I was touching on in my post. Being the absolute greediest possible is ruining this planet. Not that Jennings thinks that, we can't know really. But if a group together thinks that conceding the (exorbitant) millions is ok, doesn't seem bad to me either.

[Dirk Nowitzki]

I think Jennings picking the Grizz is without a doubt a smart move for him but the problem is the years in his contract. The cap will rise again next year and that means more money if youre a free agent in that year. That being said, Im pretty sure Jennings can make a demand for a 1 year + 1 year player option for the griz. Jenning have all the leverage (He is the last tier 1 PG left and Mem needs a PG for a deep playoff push) and can easily ask a shorter contract with player option incase he got derailed by injuries again. This is just my opinion tho

[billy]

Just did a sim for fun with the latest league file... maybe this is why he signed in Memphis 8-)

[Allan Houston]

Not bad. See, we don't need you KD! Coward. (JK, we'd love you back next year)

[Dirk who forgots to log in]

Jul 24, 2016 13:38:15 GMT -5 billy said:

Just did a sim for fun with the latest league file... maybe this is why he signed in Memphis 8-)

Another 1st round exit for the Bucks?! My bench are going to be beasting and feasting after this offseason!  ;-|


I wonder how much more $$$ can Jennings make if he is a free agent in next year's offseason while coming off as a starting PG on a championship team

[Reggie Miller]

Jul 24, 2016 13:38:15 GMT -5 billy said:

Just did a sim for fun with the latest league file... maybe this is why he signed in Memphis 8-)

wow a 3rd placer only to lose to Detroit again

[Yao Ming]

Jul 24, 2016 13:38:15 GMT -5 billy said:

Just did a sim for fun with the latest league file... maybe this is why he signed in Memphis 8-)

:o