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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 22, 2016 21:40:29 GMT -5
Phoenix Suns (5th): In at 5th in the West is my squad, the Pheonix Suns! Since it is my team, analyzing it kind of feels weird to an extent, so I will talk about my team direction, what we are going for this season and maybe some weaknesses/strengths that I am trying to fill/maintain. When I joined this league (I think somewhere between RFA and UFA before the 2nd season), my team consisted of Bradley Beal, Vince Carter, Jamal Crawford, Matthew Dellavedova, and a few others with Brook Lopez and Tim Duncan on their way out as free agents. I was quite new to the values of players and picks, as I had only done fantasy basketball for 2 yrs before that and a few months of Legacy Dynasty (where I met Billy). So for the first season we tried to make the most of it and compete. After a few injuries and SW decreases, I found myself just barely scraping for the playoffs. I figured it wasn’t worth it and for the last few games we tried to get into the lottery. Now, after numerous trades throughout the year, I am content with my team. During the summer, I didn’t think that I would be competing, let alone looking to make it into the upper tier of the West. Most of my offseason moves were aimed at competing in 2 seasons, however, after receiving the league file for this season near the end of the summer, I realized my team gelled WAY better than had anticipated. That was without starting a PG above 60 as well (lol). I have attempted to build my team around optimizing attributes, staying young and defense. For defense, we have Biyombo locking down the paint (with Nurkic and Hill backing him up), Draymond being a defensive monster (probably kicking someone in the process), MKG being a pest on the perimeter and Mudiay hopefully can make the most of his physical tools. Hayward is smart and solid defensively as well. All in all, I think we will be a tough match against any team. After the realization that my team works really well in the sim, I decided to switch gears a bit and compete in attempt to attract free agents this offseason. If the Suns perform well this year, we think we can be a prime FA destination and improve on this year’s success. The target is +50 wins and so far we are on track! The most glaring weaknesses for my team are at PG and wing depth. Starting Mudiay is less than ideal (mind you it seems to be working?). But, I think Hayward’s and Draymond’s ball handling ability greatly reduces the load on Mudiay. It would be interesting to see the usage statistics in the sim. Then, if Hayward or the more likely MKG go down for a significant portion of the season, we could really go into a tail spin. Both play such crucial roles on this team that replacing them even with decent backups would be detrimental. Having virtually no wings behind them is scary and somewhere I am actively trying to fix. So anyone with a 3 and D wing should shoot me an inbox :) . Furthermore, I am excited to continue to watch my 3 irl Nugget youngins on an exciting Denver team. Murray has been a pleasant surprise and I can’t wait to see what he turns into. I have faith that Nurkic and Mudiay will both turn into solid players as well, eventually taking the torch from our current stars. In addition, I have acquired 2 additional 1sts this year that I am not sure what to do with yet. Perhaps a trade in the future to help with competing, or the more likely, I’ll just keep them and hold onto the prospects as low end bench players. Who knows what will happen, and that is the beauty of this. That is all for my ramble, if someone wants to do a more in depth outside perspective analysis go for it! Watch for my Suns to continue to surprise and with the potential to crash and burn.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2016 22:06:19 GMT -5
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 24, 2016 0:10:05 GMT -5
Boston Celtics (5th): In at 5th in the East is Red Auerbach and his Boston Celtics! Led by Russell Westbrook, Isaiah Thomas, Dwayne Wade, Paul Millsap and Dirk Nowitzki, the C’s are looking to be a competitive team once again. After a disappointing season last year, Red and his team have regrouped with many new faces on the roster. The Celtics successfully signed Wade, Chandler, Crawford, Johnson, Stuckey and DWade during this offseason free agency. Despite having only one rookie under contract, Red has prioritized winning this season over the future - and without having his picks in 2018 or 2020, he will have to remain in that mind set for a while after as well. I have the Celtics pegged only at 5th, even with some of their high end talent, due to their weird fit, depth and health/age. Similar to many teams now, Boston is another team with a peculiar fit. Currently, they are starting a PG, SG, 2 PF’s and a C (Westbrook, Wade, Millsap, Dirk and Big Al). This may allow them to dominate the glass, but I think the defense will suffer. Even having the most athletic player in the NBA right now on their team, this starting 5 has the potential to be one of the slowest. Big Al and Dirk is an extremely cumbersome front court and Millsap is out of position causing him to be slow against regular 3’s. Then, although both Wade and Westbrook can be good defensively, they aren’t necessarily known for it or consistent through the regular season. I will expect the Celtics to give up some high scoring games this year. Then for the issue of depth, the Celtics only have 12 players rostered. They are all decently rated (going +58 for the top 11 guys), but the lack of bodies may become an issue later on. This leads me to my next point where health and age may catch up, compounding the issue of only having 12 players on deck. Chandler, Wade, Big Al and especially Dirk this season, have been known to miss some time. With few players rostered, the Celtics could have to resort to playing guys that are less talented or running their stars +40min a night. Any of these situations, which I think are quite likely, could cost them games that could bump them to around this prediction. As mentioned previously, rebounding and the veteran experience will be some of the Celtic’s strengths this year. Westbrook is an insane rebounder for his position, rocking a 26.5 DRB% this season, and paired with Millsap, Dirk and Big Al (who are all respectable rebounders), I think the Celtics will be tough to box-out this season. Lastly, the majority of Red’s team are older players that have all experienced the ups and downs of the NBA. While this could be a weakness for them this year (in terms of health and endurance), I think the veteran consistency will be a key factor in pulling out wins in the close and tough matchups. Watch for the Celtics to hover around the upper to middle portion of the East due to their consistency while they attempt to optimize lineups when some players go down.
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Red Auerbach
Boston Celtics
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Total Bank: 37,000
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Post by Red Auerbach on Dec 24, 2016 11:35:03 GMT -5
Thank you for the review. You have put a lot of work into this. I was looking forward to mine to see what strengths you thought I had and which weaknesses needed to be addressed.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 24, 2016 12:28:05 GMT -5
Thank you for the review. You have put a lot of work into this. I was looking forward to mine to see what strengths you thought I had and which weaknesses needed to be addressed. No problem! From the sims I did to get an idea of where to put some teams, the East was very close together (usually only a few games back from each other). And I seem to have been off with Cleveland and Indy, meaning you and the other top East teams could be moving up a few spots
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Post by Allen Iverson on Dec 24, 2016 12:56:15 GMT -5
#OrlandoProud They made it, this proves I didn't completely ruin Orlando :'( (rofl) Umm u did...I just rebuilt it
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Post by Gregg Popovich on Dec 24, 2016 13:34:50 GMT -5
#OrlandoProud They made it, this proves I didn't completely ruin Orlando :'( (rofl) Umm u did...I just rebuilt it LOL
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2016 13:49:52 GMT -5
Umm u did...I just rebuilt it LOL Who got you Gasol and DeRozan? Might've made the playoffs if Gasol wasn't injured last season.At least thank me for Gasol and his 3 point shot lol.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 27, 2016 23:38:03 GMT -5
Memphis Grizzlies (4th): Next up at 4th in the West is Logan Hough and his Memphis Grizzlies! Led by Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin, this is just one of the many very strong teams in this conference. They are currently off to a great 8-2 start this season and look to be one of the forerunners this year. I had them pegged a bit lower when I made the rankings due to the reasons of injuries and stock watch decreases. Just as I had feared this summer, Blake has suffered another injury and is scheduled to miss 4-6 weeks after foregoing arthroscopic knee surgery. Losing any +70 player for a significant stretch of time will surely cost the Grizzlies a few games that they would normally win. Let's hope he gets lucky and doesn’t miss more than the threshold of 15 games. The other major contributors on this team could miss a bit of time and if unlucky, could miss more than the threshold...but I don’t see that happening. Blake’s health is of the most concern and is one of the most difficult to replace. For stock watch decreases, I think Aaron Afflalo and Brandon Jennings could see a decrease in the future. Afflalo is currently rated 66 and Jennings a 65, with both ratings entailing solid starting calibre players. Afflalo is off to a near career worst season, with the stats of 7.2 PPG, 2.2 REB, 1.1 AST, 108 ORtg, 114 DRtg, -4.1 BPM and 8.2 PER in 23.8 min on a team that could probably use his shooting. Jennings is doing slightly better this season at 7.7 PPG, 2.7 REB, 5.4 AST, 103 ORtg, 112 DRtg, -2.5 BPM, 49.4 TS% and 12.9 PER in 23.5 min. ‘Backup’ appropriate ratings for these two current starters could also weaken this strong Grizzly team. However, if Aaron Gordon and Zach Lavine continue to progress, a ratings increase for them (especially Lavine - AG is probably a bit too soon), could help counteract the decreases of Jennings and Afflalo. One of my favourite aspects of this team is the fact that they are strong now and have two strong prospects in Gordon and Lavine. Mr. Hough has done a great job of finding a balance within his team that will surely benefit him in the long run. Along with the strength of these two strong prospects, the Grizzlies also have the strength of three +70 rated players on their team. Any team with that kind of firepower is surely destined to do very well. While their frontcourt doesn’t provide a ton of interior defense, I think the intelligence and veteran experience of these guys will help make up for that. The offense of the Grizzlies is also insane. They have the potential for 4 players to average close to 20 PPG. Blake, Aldridge, Melo and Lavine are all talented offensive players that are going to be a challenge to stop against any team, even without being concentrated on one team. Look for the Grizzlies to blow out most teams without having to try too hard on defense, but have the potential to lose a few too many games if injuries and SW’s catch up to them.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 30, 2016 15:22:26 GMT -5
Detroit Pistons (4th): Next up in the East is Frank Reynolds and his Detroit Pistons! Currently at a respectable 7-5, the Pistons are looking to continue the trend as one of the most successful D720 franchises we have. They are led by Pau Gasol, Nicolas Batum, Reggie Jackson and Harrison Barnes. While this team is very strong and balanced, having no real ‘star’ of the team, they are lacking in a few key areas - particularly interior defense and depth. Pau is smart, experienced and a perhaps a good team defender, but he lacks the quickness and athleticism now to be a true rim protecting threat. Nikola Mirotic and Channing Frye, the only other bigs on this team, are also not great rim protectors. Both Mirotic and Frye are sporting a below 3% BLK on the year. The Pistons are going to be relying heavily on their perimeter defense to help divert some of the pressure away from their weak inside protection. Opposing teams are going to be looking to exploit this when they come to play Motor City. Frank’s next most pressing issue to address is depth. He is lacking both positional depth and roster depth. At only 12 players deep, the Pistons are tied for the shortest bench in the league. Any serious of injuries have the potential to seriously hinder the Piston’s chances this season. And as already pointed out, Detroit only has three traditional bigs that will be splitting all of the time at the starting and secondary lineups of PF/C. There will be no shortage of minutes for the three of them, that’s for sure. Frank is also without a backup PG. Delon Wright has been out since the beginning of the year with a shoulder injury that is expected to sideline him until January. With Reggie missing the first chunk of the season due to tendinitis, the Pistons could be in for a crippling losing streak. This is why depth, and at the very minimum a solid number of bodies on the roster, is so important for a competing team. To recover from these weaknesses, Detroit will need to rely on their strengths of shooting and perimeter defense. The Pistons have both inside/mid range scorers in Barnes and Pau, as well as 3PT shooters in Reggie, Batum, Korver, Mirotic, Frye and Barnes. The Pistons are a team with multiple ways to score and great weapons to carry that out. A lot of their bigs can stretch the floor and their wings are some of the best at doing that as well. For perimeter defense, the are lucky that they have a few great wing defenders in Barnes, Allen and Batum, which should help to offset the weak interior defense. As I said before, they will need to make sure this area of their defense is air-tight if they want to prevent an inside-the-paint-massacre. Watch for the Pistons to be a solid playoff team when healthy, but have the potential to fall below this prediction if they are unable to salvage the season after a tough few weeks in the beginning without a single PG.
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Post by Ray Allen on Dec 30, 2016 15:30:45 GMT -5
Milwaukee Bucks (8th): The first Eastern Conference team to be predicted to make the playoffs is Dirk Nowitzki and the Milwaukee Bucks! Led by Derrick Favors, Rudy Gay, Brandon Knight, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon, the Bucks are looking to show that they are a solid team even without cornerstone player, Anthony Davis. In a blockbuster trade with Seattle, the Bucks received a plethora of picks along with Favors to move the 23 yr old superstar who has now found his way onto the Pelicans. The Bucks are a well rounded offensive team, with great spacing from Ariza, Gordon and Knight, as well as iso-scoring from Gay and solid interior play from Favors. This continues into the bench too, with Calderon, Bogdanovic and Dunleavy as the shooters, Livingston with iso-post ups and Koufos working the interior. One of the bigger questions surrounding the Bucks is who their starting 5 will be exactly. I suspect Favors, Knight and Gay to be shoe-ins, but whether they will go small (with Favors at the 5, Gay/Young at the 4, Ariza at 3, Gordon at 2 and Knight at 1) or big (with Koufos at 5, Favors at 4, Gay at 3, Ariza/Gordon at 2 and Knight at 1) will be the question. With Favors’ lack of perimeter shooting but great size and defense, he certaintly wouldn’t be out of place in the sim playing center. This would also enable Koufos to come off the bench and provide the Bucks with their only other interior defender in the 2nd unit. However, having only one backup center, possibly only 1 center if Favors plays the 4, is a huge roster weakness for Dirk this season. Especially since Favors has been dealing with a lingering back issue, they could find themselves fairly short handed this season. Therefore, opposing teams will be looking to take advantage of the lack of interior defense on the Bucks. For other weaknesses, possible stock watch reductions looks to be the most haunting. Before the season began, Brandon Knight was assigned to a 6th man role in Phoenix, where he looked to be in a position to be a frontrunner 6MOTY (6th man of the year) candidate. If this slump of shooting 37.9% from the field and career lows (or close to) in RB%, AST%, STL%, TS% and BPM continues, I think Knight could warrant a decrease from his current 68 rating. Colderon (59) and Dunleavy (59) would be other players that could see a reduction this year as well on the Bucks. The only clear candidate for increase that is currently rostered is Justin Anderson (50). As irl Dallas becomes more and more injured, Anderson’s role will expand, giving Dirk an opportunity to give his guy a SW to potentially help compensate these reductions. Look for Milwaukee to struggle against teams with great finishers and if Favors is out due to injury, but manage to secure a playoff spot with great offense and the luck of being in a weaker Eastern Conference. Thank you fro showing me what i need to accomplish friend, i need to move up in the standings and hopeflly grt a god superstar :)
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Dec 30, 2016 16:06:52 GMT -5
This is the first one I disagree with! Detroit won't finish 4th... Especially after the Gasol stock watch!
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Dec 30, 2016 16:28:44 GMT -5
This is the first one I disagree with! Detroit won't finish 4th... Especially after the Gasol stock watch! I agree. He's going to hit a rough patch without a PG too. But remember this was made in the summer and not changed since then. Seems like I was quite off with the top 4 in the East lol
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 1, 2017 16:38:16 GMT -5
Utah Jazz (3rd): Next up in the West is DJ Jazzy Jeff and his Utah Jazz! After a successful offseason signing numerous players, the Jazz are looking to build on from their winnings of last year. Currently doing a bit worse than I had anticipated, the Jazz are 8-7, with plenty more games ahead to hit this prediction. They are led by Paul George, Monta Ellis, Ricky Rubio and Robin Lopez. Perhaps some of the reasons the Jazz aren’t living up to expectations yet is due to their weaker supporting cast for PG13 (when compared to other top teams) and their lack of 3PT shooting in the starting lineup. Now to be fair, I am nitpicking here, but the little things can make the difference when talking about the upper tier of the league. Outside of Paul George, the Jazz’s best rated players are Ricky Rubio and Monta Ellis; both rated 65 overall. While this is by no means terrible, I think PG13 would be much better off playing alongside another high 60’s player or better. Right now his minutes are sky high, with him playing 41.1min in their loss to the Kings and 38.4min in their loss to the Grizzlies. In the sim, this will only lead to a decreased PER and a weakened Utah Jazz. After over 300 personal sims, I have noticed that a player’s potential is maximized in a sweet spot of minutes/efficiency. If the Jazz are able to ease up the pressure on PG by lessening his minutes or getting better teammates, I think the Jazz could be a true top 5 team. For the lack of 3PT shooting in the starting lineup, the Jazz only have George as a real outside threat. Rubio and Ellis have always been poor shooters, this Lopez is pretty irrelevant outside 10ft and Morris is solid but not spectacular shooting .335 3P% on 4.6 attempts on the year. The Jazz do have the bright spots of depth and a top 10 player on their team that place them above most teams. They go 13 deep with players above 57 (wow!) and their top 9 are all in the 60s! Positional depth is also a non issue with the Jazz as they have multiple backups at every position. If a few guys go down for the Jazz this year, they should be more than fine to fill the holes in the meantime. Paul George is also a great talent and the centerpiece of this team. Any team with a superstar is always going to have the advantage against a team without one. The NBA is a star driven league and the Jazz are fortunate enough to have a player such as PG13. They also acquired Brandon Ingram in one of the more controversial trades of last year. That is one heck of a now and future wing rotation! Watch for the Jazz to be a top team if they are able to make a few minor tweaks, or regress to mediocrity if they can’t.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 3, 2017 21:25:16 GMT -5
Indiana Pacers (3rd): In at 3rd in East is Reggie Miller and his Indiana Pacers! Currently at 4-11, the Pacers are experiencing one of the biggest disappointments of the season - according to my predictions. Lately when writing these, I haven’t been focusing on ‘why this hasn’t been living up to expectation’, but I think it is appropriate in Indiana’s case. General Manager, Reggie Miller, always has his team directed towards winning, so seeing a bottom 5 start in the East and bottom 10 start in the league truly is worrisome. When I had originally made the predictions, I had envisioned Indiana taking the next step with the addition of Kevin Love to their roster. The Pacers finished 49-33 last year, with the majority of the PF minutes played by Markieff Morris. Logically, I figured adding a 71 overall player to the mix at PF would garner a few more wins and push them into the upper tier of a weak Eastern conference. Also, I knew that Reggie was prepping for another winning season and any trades he made would be geared toward that goal. That’s why the bump from 6th last year to 3rd this year seemed within the Pacer’s grasp. However, some of the issues of player inefficiencies and a lack of essential roster pieces are outweighing the offseason improvements. Specifically with player inefficiencies, and with reference to the latest league file, everyone except Jonas Valanciunas, Danny Green and Kelly Olynyk are below the average PER of 15 (the three of them are at 17.2, 16.2 and 20.3 respectively). Most noticeable are Jeff Teague, rocking a 10.5 PER in 41.4min, and Kevin Love, with a 14.4 PER in 38.4min. Both players are under a ++ time modifier right now, resulting in the high minutes and inefficient play. While Love can handle the double plus modifier with his 95 rated endurance, I think Teague would benefit greatly from less minutes. But, a probable reason for why Mr. Miller has chosen to play Teague with ++ is because of the lack of a decent backup PG. If Teague is to play less minutes, someone else would have to fill in that extra time. Only Ramon Sessions, rated 59 without any attributes, is slotted to play PG minutes. If the Pacers want to improve, I think finding a more serviceable backup to sop up the extra minutes from playing Teague less would be greatly beneficial. Additionally, the Pacers seem to be without a 6th man. Jeff Green would likely be that right now coming off the bench, but he has been averaging an 8.3 PER in 29.0min. A player that could play an efficient 20-28min off the bench with a + modifier I think could also help the Pacers a lot. As well, they are without a quality starting SF. Perhaps Reggie could be really diligent and get one player to fill the backup PG and 6th man roles or one to play 6th man and split the minutes at SF without paying a starter level cost. Either way, the Pacers have some areas to address that I think could help them get a few more ticks in the win column. In the meantime, the Pacers have great depth and three highly rated players in Love (71), JV (68) and Teague (67) to rely on. Their depth goes 11 deep that are all above 58 overall. They also have every other backup position covered to make for a well rounded bench. Love, Teague and JV are their 3 pillars that their success will depend upon. Strong rebounding and scoring will be the story of these 3 and the areas I think they will do well in. Let’s hope that Reggie is able to find something that works for his team to salvage this season. It would be a shame if the Pacers were to take a step back in the year they expected to take a step forward. Mind you, while owning their pick this year, getting into the lottery wouldn’t be the worst thing for a relatively old team? Watch for the Pacers to try hard to make some changes this season, and maybe accept a losing season if those plans don’t come to fruition.
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Reggie Miller
Indiana Pacers
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Post by Reggie Miller on Jan 4, 2017 0:23:07 GMT -5
Did not expect to be performing like this but I guess JV and KL cannot co exist.. plus the lack of a quality SF cause Green has been nerf..
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 5, 2017 15:51:09 GMT -5
Oklahoma City Thunder (2nd): In at 2nd in the West is Steve Jobs and his Oklahoma City Thunder! Currently at 9-6, the Thunder are a team that has been doing a bit worse than expected, but will eventually turn it around and play to their potential. They are led by John Wall, Al Horford, Victor Oladipo, Tristan Thompson and Jae Crowder, combining strong offense with strong defense. The Thunder have a point differential of 11.5 (putting them at 7th), while having a win/loss record that places them at tied for 12th. This Thunder team is very well-built and cohesive, however, with a few injuries already (namely Khris), some weaknesses have surfaced. Those weaknesses being 3PT shooting and further injuries. As expected of any team losing their best 3PT shooter, the Thunder are currently lacking spacing. None of Steve’s starting 5 are notable 3PT shooters in the sim with the attribute. Wall has never been known for his shooting, Horford has began to use the 3 but nothing to warrant an attribute and TT is pretty much a non factor outside of 10ft. For Crowder and Oladipo, both have shown impressive improvement in this area, shooting 0.430 3P% on 5.3 attempts and 0.390 3P% on 5.7 attempts this year. If Khris doesn’t return this season and the shooting of Oladipo and Crowder continues, I think Steve’s team could benefit from a SW tweak of them and be able to knock down a few more outside shots. To the next area of concern, the Thunder have two players that could miss the rest of the season and three players that don’t receive playing time (and rightfully so). Bayless has been confirmed to miss the rest of the season and it wouldn’t make much sense for Khris to come back if Bucks are out of the playoffs when he returns. If the Thunder were to deal with another injury, even just for the 15 game threshold, they could be forced to start sub-60 rated players. Even with a deep bench, this situation is obviously not ideal and could cost this title contending team a few too many games. Despite that, OKC comes at opposing teams with tremendous defense and ‘All-team’ talent. John Wall has slipped a bit recently in terms of his defense, but he is still a great athlete and leading the NBA in steals (2.31), Horford is a solid interior defender, TT has really improved his defense for the Cavs (not necessarily in blocks but switching on the perimeter type stuff has improved), Crowder is a top wing defender and Norman Powell is going to be a great defender as well. Then to top it all off, when/if Khris comes back, he is also a great wing defender. Any way you would come at OKC, they have an answer for it. The Thunder also have two +70 players and a great supporting cast to mid to high 60 rated players. They are neither a team without high level talent, nor a team with high level talent but no one else around that. Watch for the Thunder to be a top team across the league, only to get better, and continue to be the team that Seattle should be most worried about.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 7, 2017 16:24:55 GMT -5
Cleveland Cavaliers (2nd): In at 2nd in the East is Keith Van Horn and his Cleveland Cavaliers! Currently at 10-7 and 7th in the East, I am a bit off but I still remain hopeful. There was a few reasons for why I had projected this young team to do so well. Firstly, I didn’t want this to be too boring. I wanted to take a few risks and make some bolder predictions. To me, the Cavaliers seemed to be a bit outside the typical perspective, but still realistic at the same time. They were and still are a very real threat to be a top Eastern team because of what they accomplished last year. Last year, the Cavaliers finished with a record of 53-29, good enough for 5th in the East and only two games back from 1st! Also, being so young, I had expected improvements in their players. With the combination of where they finished last season and what they could achieve with an improved Giannis and supporting cast, it seemed like a logical next step for the Cavs. One of their biggest strengths is in their potential to get better. Continued improvement in Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, Rodney Hood and Steven Adams (and maybe even Giannis eventually..again?) could all make this team even greater than it already is. Last year, they emulated the Gestalt concept of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts perfectly. The individual players may not be super stars in the sim, but together they meshed extremely well and performed well above their talent level. The gelling that Keith has made with his team is something very real in the sim and something he has managed to find to his success. It is all about finding players that fit. These two strengths are why I viewed Cleveland as the team to take the 2nd spot. Now for weaknesses, the Cavaliers are lacking positional depth and they will be reliant on the improvements of their players to continue to progress (yes, this was also a strength but let me explain). Currently, the Cavaliers are playing without a backup PG or C. While most of the minutes could realistically be split between Giannis and Payton for PG, Giannis didn’t seem to receive any ball handling or passing attributes in his latest build update. That leaves Payton as the only player eligible to play PG on his roster. If an injury were to take place, the Cavs could find themselves in some trouble. Furthermore, only Steven Adams is slotted in as a C on the whole team. Keith’s starters receive heavy minutes, with only a select few getting minutes off the bench. This is working now, but any bad luck could derail this fragile setup. For the player improvement, which I said was a strength, happens to also be a potential weakness. I think that they will be restricted to make any tremendous growth by the development of some of their players. In particular, Hezonja, Adams, Bazemore, Hood, Harriston and Payton have either regressed from last season, or failed to show significant improvements in their game this season. Unless Mr. Van Horn makes some trades or signs some free agents, this team will need to have their young talent improve. It is unfortunate that this area of the Cavaliers is so ‘make or break’, but either way it should make for some exciting D720 basketball! Watch for the Cavaliers to continue to improve this season with SWs on certain players, but also have the potential to stagnate if the remaining players don’t improve or injuries to non-wings catch up to them.
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
Posts: 4,110
Likes: 2,492
Total Bank: 76,000
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Post by Allan Houston on Jan 7, 2017 16:59:13 GMT -5
Nice.
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billy
Miami Heat
Posts: 7,174
Likes: 6,145
Total Bank: 3,050
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Post by billy on Jan 7, 2017 18:17:53 GMT -5
What an honour! Truly, I envy you!
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
Posts: 4,110
Likes: 2,492
Total Bank: 76,000
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Post by Allan Houston on Jan 7, 2017 19:27:49 GMT -5
I better get a trophy under my avatar
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 8, 2017 20:05:56 GMT -5
Seattle Supersonics (1st): In at the most coveted place in the West, and possibly the greatest team we will ever see assembled, is John Stockton and his Seattle Supersonics! Led by the King himself, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry, this team is like a god amongst mere mortals on paper. Starting out at 13-5, with the record of 6-5 in their last 11 games, the Supersonics are not quite at the level most of us thought they would be. It seems as though a a weak bench and a defense that isn’t quite as great as you’d think are some of the reasons for this peculiar start. In terms of ratings, the Sonics are actually quite deep - with ratings of 59 or greater in their top 10. However, these bench players that are all situated around a 60, are neither defensive nor offensive in the sim. Most seem like they are just bodies thrown in so that LeBron and them can rest. It doesn’t seem like players such as Crabbe, Turner, Barbosa and Mbah a Moute are contributing. Perhaps specialists in a 6th man/gunner role, or a bench stopper would be beneficial for John and his team. For his defense, again it is quite stellar, with Dieng, LBJ and KD all having the Di attribute, and KD, Kawhi and LBJ having the Dp attribute. Yet, according to the team stats, they are letting an average of 99.5 opponent points on them per game. That places them at 15th in the league (crazy, right?!). The reason Seattle is doing much better than 15th, is because their offense is currently 1st, scoring 111.6 pts per game. Not surprisingly then, the losses are coming from the fact that their offense is only a few pts per game better than the other top teams, yet their defense is middle of the pack right now. This is making for some close games between teams with top defenses and offenses, and therefore costing them a few losses. Looks like Seattle isn’t invincible after all! Now, they still are extremely strong in the areas of offense and having stars. As previously mentioned, they have the top offense in the league. It's not surprising when you have some of the best shooters/scorers in the entire league and one of the all-time-greats too. They are top in assists, top in 3PT made, 4th in FG% and 3rd in point differential. The Sonic’s starters can set anyone up from anywhere, and they can finish a play from anywhere - truly a deadly combination. Also, they are loaded with upper level talent. I don’t need to delve into this too much as we all know the caliber of players that are on this team, but it is still an important aspect of a successful basketball team and an area that Seattle dominates in. A team is usually lucky and expected to do well with one or two +70 players...Seattle has two +80 and two +70 players. Still blows my mind. Watch for the Supersonics to make a few moves, eventually find their stride and reclaim the top spot in the league.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Jan 8, 2017 21:50:21 GMT -5
New York Knicks (1st): With the final season prediction of year...in at 1st in the East is Allan Houston and his New York Knicks! Led by Kemba Walker, DeAndre Jordan, Manu Ginobili and my boi Nikola “Big Honey” Jokic, the Knicks are a well run, well built and strong playoff team. Currently 11-6 and 6th in the East, the Knicks aren’t quite where I had them pegged but are only 2 games back from the current top team. Some areas of mild concern this season for the Knicks are in their age and shooting. Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce, Rondo, Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams and David West are all at or above 30 years old. I haven’t done the math, but off the top of my head I can’t think of a team that is older on average or has older players with as significant of roles as the guys mentioned above on the Knicks. This is a potential weakness for Allan and his team because as his players age, they usually regress in their production, and thus will be eligible for stock watch decreases. As well, with so many of these older players having a significant role (⅗ starting are over at or over 30), a few SW decreases could really hinder the Knicks success. It will be a tricky balance for Mr. Houston to find the sweet spot between getting the consistency of a veteran, while managing the decline in their inevitable regression. For shooting, the Knicks only have one player with the 3 attribute at the moment (Manu). Specifically, Rondo, DeAndre, Covington, Reed, Rodriguez and Kemba in previous years, have all struggled to have range or be efficient shooters. On the year, Rondo is shooting 36.9%, Covington is shooting 34.8%, Rodriguez is shooting 40.2%, and DJ and Reed are useless outside the paint. Luckily, Kemba has shown great progression this season and last, going from below 40% two years ago to shooting 46.8% this year. For strengths, the Knicks are very deep and are one of the best passing teams in the league. The Knicks have their top 11 at or above a 60. As well, they have great positional depth, with every position having multiple backups. Their bench is also strong, with Rondo and Jokic being the 6th and 7th men. Any injury that the Knicks face this season, should be handled with relative ease and without any serious damage. According to the team stats, Allan’s team is currently 3rd in assists per game at 25.3 - only 0.4 assists per game behind Seattle. With great passers like Rondo, Manu and Jokic, it's easy to see why their so successful in this aspect. If they were to add a few more shooters to this pass-heavy team, I think the Knicks could really take the next step. Watch for the Knicks to be extremely consistent and well rounded this season, as the statistical genius GM takes them to deep into the playoffs.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on May 21, 2017 21:53:13 GMT -5
Hey guys, I figured I should do a follow up of my predictions now that the final standings are in. As expected, the West was a lot easier to predict that the East. Despite a few management and team direction changes over the season, I think I did fairly well? Let me know what you guys think! I hope to do a short write up for each team on why my prediction was right, wrong or close. Key: Green = Got it right! Yellow = Very/pretty close! Within 1-5 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. White = Meh/not really. Within 6-10 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. Red = Way off! Over 10 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. +# = Prediction was over by # -# = Prediction was under by # West Prediction | West Actual | East Prediction | East Actual | 1. Seattle Supersonics | 1. Seattle Supersonics | 1. New York Knicks | 1. New York Knicks | 2. Oklahoma City Thunder (+6) | 2. Phoenix Suns | 2. Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) | 2. Boston Celtics | 3. Utah Jazz | 3. Utah Jazz | 3. Indiana Pacers (+5) | 3. Orlando Magic | 4. Memphis Grizzlies (+7) | 4. New Orleans Pelicans | 4. Detroit Pistons (+7) | 4. Brooklyn Nets | 5. Phoenix Suns (-6) | 5. Oklahoma City Thunder | 5. Boston Celtics (-4) | 5. Cleveland Cavaliers | 6. New Orleans Pelicans (-3) | 6. Houston Rockets | 6. Orlando Magic (-5) | 6. Indiana Pacers | 7. Golden State Warriors (+6) | 7. Memphis Grizzlies | 7. Philadelphia 76ers (+17) | 7. Detroit Pistons | 8. Houston Rockets (-5) | 8. Sacramento Kings | 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 9. Los Angeles Lakers (0)* | 9. Golden State Warriors | 9. Charlotte Hornets (+4) | 9. Miami Heat | 10. Sacramento Kings (-5) | 10. Los Angeles Lakers | 10. Brooklyn Nets (-20) | 10. Chicago Bulls | 11. Minnesota Timberwolves | 11. Minnesota Timberwolves | 11. Miami Heat (-4) | 11. Charlotte Hornets | 12. San Antonio Spurs | 12. San Antonio Spurs | 12. Washington Wizards (+6) | 12. Philadelphia 76ers | 13. Portland Trailblazers | 13. Portland Trailblazers | 13. Chicago Bulls (-11) | 13. Washington Wizards | 14. Los Angeles Clippers | 14. Los Angeles Clippers | 14. Atlanta Hawks (+2) | 14. Toronto Raptors | 15. Dallas Mavericks | 15. Dallas Mavericks | 15. Toronto Raptors (-2) | 15. Atlanta Hawks |
*Lakers finished with the exact same record as the team in the position I had predicted them in.
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on May 21, 2017 21:57:05 GMT -5
Hey guys, I figured I should do a follow up of my predictions now that the final standings are in. As expected, the West was a lot easier to predict that the East. Despite a few management and team direction changes over the season, I think I did fairly well? Let me know what you guys think! I hope to do a short write up for each team on why my prediction was right, wrong or close. Key: Green = Got it right! Yellow = Very/pretty close! Within 1-5 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. White = Meh/not really. Within 6-10 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. Red = Way off! Over 10 games from the team that finished in the position I had predicted them in. +# = Prediction was over by # -# = Prediction was under by # West Prediction | West Actual | East Prediction | East Actual | 1. Seattle Supersonics | 1. Seattle Supersonics | 1. New York Knicks | 1. New York Knicks | 2. Oklahoma City Thunder (+6) | 2. Phoenix Suns | 2. Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) | 2. Boston Celtics | 3. Utah Jazz | 3. Utah Jazz | 3. Indiana Pacers (+5) | 3. Orlando Magic | 4. Memphis Grizzlies (+7) | 4. New Orleans Pelicans | 4. Detroit Pistons (+7) | 4. Brooklyn Nets | 5. Phoenix Suns (-6) | 5. Oklahoma City Thunder | 5. Boston Celtics (-4) | 5. Cleveland Cavaliers | 6. New Orleans Pelicans (-3) | 6. Houston Rockets | 6. Orlando Magic (-5) | 6. Indiana Pacers | 7. Golden State Warriors (+6) | 7. Memphis Grizzlies | 7. Philadelphia 76ers (+17) | 7. Detroit Pistons | 8. Houston Rockets (-5) | 8. Sacramento Kings | 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 8. Milwaukee Bucks | 9. Los Angeles Lakers (0)* | 9. Golden State Warriors | 9. Charlotte Hornets (+4) | 9. Miami Heat | 10. Sacramento Kings (-5) | 10. Los Angeles Lakers | 10. Brooklyn Nets (-20) | 10. Chicago Bulls | 11. Minnesota Timberwolves | 11. Minnesota Timberwolves | 11. Miami Heat (-4) | 11. Charlotte Hornets | 12. San Antonio Spurs | 12. San Antonio Spurs | 12. Washington Wizards (+6) | 12. Philadelphia 76ers | 13. Portland Trailblazers | 13. Portland Trailblazers | 13. Chicago Bulls (-11) | 13. Washington Wizards | 14. Los Angeles Clippers | 14. Los Angeles Clippers | 14. Atlanta Hawks (+2) | 14. Toronto Raptors | 15. Dallas Mavericks | 15. Dallas Mavericks | 15. Toronto Raptors (-2) | 15. Atlanta Hawks |
*Lakers finished with the exact same record as the team in the position I had predicted them in. Damn you were pretty spot on
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Post by John Stockton on May 21, 2017 22:09:02 GMT -5
Good shit JT, hope this becomes a tradition that we can look forward to every season. Not only is it obvious you spent a lot of time analyzing the teams but you were also right on majority of your picks!
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Post by Justin Timberlake on May 23, 2017 13:13:59 GMT -5
Here is the first of the mini write ups! They likely won't be as long as the season predictions and I will combine a few teams per post. I'll be going in the order of the final standings. Enjoy! Seattle SupersonicsPrediction: 1st in the West Result: 1st in the West
This was probably the easiest of the bunch. With a core of KD, LeBron and Kawhi, it was very difficult to see the Supersonics finish anywhere but 1st. What was most surprising was only finishing 1 game ahead of the 2nd placed Suns (woo!) and 3 games ahead of the 3rd placed Knicks! I think the combination of losing Durant and Barea for significant time, caused an increase in playing time for a mediocre bench, which ultimately lost the Sonic's a few more games than expected. All in all, it was a dominating year by the defending champs. Great job John, you've constructed one hell of a team!
Phoenix Suns
Prediction: 5th in the West (underestimated by 6 games) Result: 2nd in the West
This was a pleasant surprise! I did not expect my Suns to be such a competitive team. Going into the season, we planned to make the playoffs, but not be title contender. I think the main reason I underestimated my team's success was due to the importance of defense. The Suns finished with the top defense in the league, allowing 91.6 OPts per game. As well, my team remained relatively healthy throughout the year and seemed to gel. Then, the addition of Lowry gave us the offensive boost we needed. All of this was a recipe for an overachieving year!
New York Knicks
Prediction: 1st in the East Result: 1st in the East
The second team I predicted correctly! To put it bluntly, the East was a crapshoot. The Knicks, however, were a steady force that I had the most faith in prevailing on top. Anchored by DJ and lead by Kemba, the Knicks consistently played their game and calmly found their way to the 1st seed. I think the biggest reason I got this right was trusting in the GM. I knew Allan would build a team that worked together. At first, this prediction was looking off, but after multiple 10+ game winning streaks, the Knicks quickly climbed to the top of the league. Even more impressive than finishing 58-24, is finishing 58-24 after losing Kevin Durant in the offseason. Great job Allan, and thanks for making me look smart!
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Post by Justin Timberlake on May 27, 2017 1:12:50 GMT -5
Boston CelticsPrediction: 5th in the East (underestimated by 4 games) Result: 2nd in the East As you can see, I was pretty far in terms of a standings prediction, but Boston only finished 4 games ahead of the 5th seed in East. So I won't be too hard on myself with the top of the East being so fluid and close throughout. However, I still underestimated them! I think the biggest fault in that was not accounting for the stock watch upgrades that the Celtics received. Most notably was the increase to Isaiah Thomas and Russell Westbrook (I think?). As well, Paul Millsap at age 32 showed no signs of regression and retained his 72 overall rating. Having three +70 players helped propel the Celtics past my prediction. Great job Red, your team is one to be feared! Utah JazzPrediction: 3rd in the West Result: 3rd in the West Another prediction I got correct! The Jazz are a pretty stable team that I expected to do quite well. They had a lot of continuity and had plans to pursue the playoffs. What really helped make this prediction come to fruition was Utah's trade deadline moves this season. Acquiring Eric Gordon and Marvin Williams seemed to add a much needed boost to the Jazz that slightly pushed them ahead of the Pelicans and Thunder. Without those last minute moves, I don't think I would've gotten this one right! Great moves Jazzy Jeff, they made me look psychic! Orlando MagicPrediction: 6th in the East (underestimated by 5 games) Result: 3rd in the East The Orlando Magic were another East team I was off by a close amount. I think the biggest reasons for getting this prediction wrong was underestimating how good their offense would be and overestimating the impact their defense would have. The Magic finished the year with the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 106.8 pts per game. While their defense was 16th, it wasn't bad enough to drag them down to where I had predicted. Further, AI made some deadline moves that seem to have helped on the defensive side of the floor. Great job Allen, you've built a previously tanking team into a serious contender!
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Post by DJ Jazzy Jeff on May 27, 2017 12:48:01 GMT -5
Might there be an Executive of the year award on the horizon for me? We shall see
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Post by Yao Ming on May 27, 2017 18:05:37 GMT -5
Man these are great JT
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