JT's Season Predictions

[Justin Timberlake]

May 27, 2017 18:05:37 GMT -5 Yao Ming said:

Man these are great JT

Thanks, glad you're enjoying!

[Justin Timberlake]

^{New Orleans Pelicans}

Prediction: 6th in the West (underestimated by 3 games)
Result: 4th in the West

Based on where Billy started, I think my prediction was fair. I knew the Pelicans were going to be competing, but going from the worst record in the entire league two seasons ago to being 4th in the West would've been ridiculous. The biggest component to my underestimating was the trades that BK made. He added Dwight Howard, John Wall, Patrick Patterson and various other role players to create a powerhouse team. This rebuild has been very effective and certainly faster than I had anticipated. Great job Commish, the 'other' BK could learn a few things from you!



^{Oklahoma City Thunder}

Prediction: 2nd in the West (overestimated by 6 games)
Result: 5th in the West 

This was one I would've put money on at the beginning of the year! Since I have been a GM here, Steve has always managed competitive and winning teams. In line with that, I had predicted another successful year for the Thunder. However, Steve trying his hand as the newest Tank Commander was something I hadn't anticipated. While his change in direction was near the end of the year, I think he could have gotten close to this prediction with trades in the other direction. Ultimately, I am fascinated as to where Steve will take his newly youth-ified Thunder. Plus, the West can't be too competitive ;) . Great job Steve, another successful year to your name and a fresh new Thunder we're excited to see!


^{Cleveland Cavaliers}

Prediction: 2nd in the East (overestimated by 4 games)
Result: 4th in the East

Another prediction I am happy with! This prediction was one of my 'hot takes'. With the East up for grabs and the Cavs' youth trending upwards, I decided to be bold and take a chance. To my surprise, they got quite close (only 4 games back from 2nd seed in the East). Two of the biggest contributors to the Cleveland not quite meeting my lofty expectations was trading away their best rim protector, Steven Adams, to Indiana and having a dormant GM for some time. Had Scottie not been hired and made the trades he did, I think the Cavs would've finished much worse than this. Great job Scottie, you salvaged this team from mediocrity and are going to be a threat for years to come! 

[billy]

You were really spot on with a lot of these JT, great foresight and writing!

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Brooklyn Nets}

Prediction: 10th in the East (underestimated by 20 games)
Result: 5th in the East

Wow! This was certainly the surprise of the season and by far my worst prediction. Mind you, I think the Nets surprised most of us this season. I haven't found a reason for why the Nets were so successful that I am satisfied with. While it seemed a lot had to do with the ease of conference/schedule, I think the Nets managed to find some kind of magic synergy as well. They somehow managed to finish with the 5th best offense in the league, scoring 104.4 pts per game, and top third in a variety of other categories with Embiid missing the majority of the season. Possibly the whole being greater than the sum of its parts? Great job Kareem, your team was the most surprising...in a good way!


^{Houston Rockets}

Prediction: 8th in the West (underestimated by 5 games)
Result: 6th in the West

This was another prediction I was relatively close on. I had predicted the Rockets to have a top notch defense in the league, which did not disappoint! They finished with the 4th best defense, allowing 94.8 opponents pts per game. I think the underestimation stemmed from undervaluing a great defense and overvaluing the impact of their offense. Similar to my prediction with my team, a great defense really can make up for decent to mediocre offense. As well, I had predicted a few other Western teams to do better than they did (*cough* Golden State *cough*), which helped bump the Rockets up a few spots. Great job Yao, your team is a prime example of the importance of a great defense! 


^{Indiana Pacers}

Prediction: 3rd in the East (overestimated by 5 games)
Result: 6th in the East

This was another bold prediction that got somewhat close by the end of the season. I bet on Reggie's desire to win more than anything, to carry them to the upper tier of the East. While I was wrong on where they would end up, Reggie's competitiveness saved this prediction from being like the Nets' and 76ers'. Before the addition of a great rim protector, the Pacers were at the bottom of the league, with no signs of improvement. However, Reggie never gave up on his will to win and managed to put together a very respectable year! Had the Pacers started the year with a more prominent paint protector, I think they could've made this prediction true. Great job Reggie, your desire to win when most would've given up was inspiring!

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Memphis Grizzlies}

Prediction: 4th in the West (overestimated by 7 games)
Result: 7th in the West

This was the farthest off prediction that I made in the West. While 7 games and 3 spots away isn't too bad, I feel as though I could have done better. Going into the year, Memphis had a few overrated players that were large contributors to their team that I knew of. For some reason, I didn't take the stock watch reductions on Afflalo and Jennings into as much consideration as I should have. The other place I think I went wrong was in something I couldn't predict - Lavine's injury. Memphis truly missed the athleticism and scoring of Lavine during the later portion of the year. Great job Logan, your team put up one hell of a fight in these playoffs!


  ^{Sacramento Kings}

Prediction: 10th in the West (underestimated by 5 games)
Result: 8th in the West 

Another prediction I had gotten somewhat close on! The Kings came out of nowhere this postseason and stole the first 2 games from the best team in the league. Who would've guessed?! I think the biggest reason for my underestimation of the Kings was in my evaluation of their team direction. With a few veterans like Hill, Gibson, DWill and Johnson, while also having a strong young core, I expected to see the Kings trade their vets for younger pieces and focus on development. Instead, the Kings continued to win games and finished with a respectable record of 46-36. Perhaps with the OG Tank Commander himself, Sam Hinkie, in charge, Sacramento will look to get a top pick in the coming years? Great job Mr. Hinkie, I think we all enjoyed you and Logan putting a scare into John and I this postseason!


^{Detroit Pistons}

Prediction: 4th in the East (overestimated by 7 games)
Result: 7th in the East

As the owner of this pick, this was one prediction that I was happy with getting wrong! After winning the inaugural season and being quite competitive last year, I predicted another year where Detroit was a strong force in the East. Instead, the Pistons seemed to hover in no-man's land for most of the season. I think my overestimation was due to two main reasons. The first was the inevitable Pau Gasol reduction, which I failed to take into account. The second was poor management done by SVG's successor and Greg's predecessor. Pau's reduction changed him from a dominating force to a more accurate and one-dimensional player, which greatly affected Detroit. The poor management and eventual inactivity meant the Pistons never improved their situation. Luckily, the Pistons have hired a new GM that looks to take them to a brighter future. Great job Greg, you've done very well for walking into a less than ideal situation! 

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Milwaukee Bucks}

Prediction: 8th in the East
Result: 8th in the East

Woo! This was one of two predictions I got exactly correct in the East. In my initial prediction, I stated they would be a good team, however a SW reduction in Knight and the injuries of Favors would hold them back. Surprisingly, both of those occurred and had the expected outcome on the team. The Bucks were more than capable of beating the tankers of the East but not good enough to make a dent in the true competitors of the East. In addition, the Bucks suffered from a dormant GM for a time. While the gap between 8th and 9th in the East was likely too large, a more active GM could have put the Bucks a few spots higher. Great job White Mamba, you've already done fine work on the best part of this league - making the team your own!


^{Golden State Warriors}

Prediction: 7th in the West (overestimated by 6 games)
Result: 9th in the West

This result was another surprise on the season. I think most of us had Golden State as a team that was on the rise in the West. Unfortunately, the talent didn't seem to mesh this year. Their biggest weakness which they attempted to fix was the positional discord. They had too many guards and centers, and not enough wings. The addition of Crowder and Oladipo on paper would seem to work, but the sim didn't agree. Most likely, it was playing KAT and Gobert together. This team still has a ton of upside and it will be interesting to see where Kwame's replacement will take them. Even though you're still very new, great job so far Penny, you have one of the most interesting teams in the league!


^{LA Lakers}

Prediction: 9th in the West (neither over or underestimated)
Result: 10th in the West

Well, I basically got this correct but didn't at the same time. Both the Warriors and Lakers finished 41-41, however the Warriors won the tie breaker and pushed the Lakers down a spot. Had that not happened, I would've had this prediction correct as well. I think both the Warriors and Lakers had the same issue of playing two centers together. While they would dominate most teams on the boards, they both lacked any modicum of spacing or perimeter depth (the Lakers more so than the Warriors). I had Golden State slightly higher than the Lakers for this reason, but it is quite interesting that they finished with the exact same record. Unfortunately for the Lakers, having 4 guys at or above 67 was not enough to make it into the playoffs in the ultra competitive West. To bring the Lakers out of mediocrity, Rasheed will need to be talented but also synergistic. Great job so far Rasheed, you have a lot of potential with your roster! 

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Minnesota Timberwolves}

Prediction: 11th in the West
Result: 11th in the West

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the first of the bottom of the West that I predicted correctly! For the past few seasons, the TWolves have hung around this no-man's land position. This is unfortunate as they have a lot of interesting talent that could come together to make a great team. I think what allowed me to get this prediction right was betting on the fact that the Wolves were too good to compete with the bottom of the West and didn't have the fit or desire to compete with the playoff teams. That places them somewhere in the 10-12 range in the conference, which is exactly where they turned out. Great job Milt, while this is perhaps a disappointing year, you have a lot to look forward to with your team!


^{Miami Heat}

Prediction: 11th in the East (underestimated by 4 games)
Result: 9th in the East

It is interesting that you can clearly see the disparity between the East and the West. The 9th best team in the East finished with a worse record than the 11 best team in the West. But to the prediction, this was one I can't really complain about. Beginning the year, it seemed as though the Heat were taking a questionable route of tanking...but not really tanking. The previous administration had aspirations to move the pieces that were inhibiting the Heat's ability to acquire a top pick, but they fell through when dormancy struck the Heat. I think this prediction could've gotten closer had someone like Gallo, Igoudala or Henson been traded/moved earlier. Great job so far Jamario, you've made a few solid value trades that should help your team's future. 


^{Chicago Bulls}

Prediction: 13th in the East (underestimated by 11 games)
Result: 10th in the East

The second of three predictions that were 'in the red'. The Bulls certainly did better than I thought, which was a huge success for them considering they didn't own their pick this year. The biggest reason for my miscalculation was PP's relentless nature to better his team this year (and for the future). When initially analyzing the team, I expected the Bulls to be near the bottom of the league due to their poor defense and assets to improve. Paul managed to find a way to circumvent those concerns, make his pick worse and get the 1st overall pick in the draft. All of this was accomplished through numerous trades and a bit of luck. Great job Paul, you never gave up on your team and it paid off tremendously!

[Julius Erving]

More? :)

[Paul Pierce]

Jun 14, 2017 0:35:39 GMT -5 Justin Timberlake said:

^{Minnesota Timberwolves}

Prediction: 11th in the West
Result: 11th in the West

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the first of the bottom of the West that I predicted correctly! For the past few seasons, the TWolves have hung around this no-man's land position. This is unfortunate as they have a lot of interesting talent that could come together to make a great team. I think what allowed me to get this prediction right was betting on the fact that the Wolves were too good to compete with the bottom of the West and didn't have the fit or desire to compete with the playoff teams. That places them somewhere in the 10-12 range in the conference, which is exactly where they turned out. Great job Milt, while this is perhaps a disappointing year, you have a lot to look forward to with your team!


^{Miami Heat}

Prediction: 11th in the East (underestimated by 4 games)
Result: 9th in the East

It is interesting that you can clearly see the disparity between the East and the West. The 9th best team in the East finished with a worse record than the 11 best team in the West. But to the prediction, this was one I can't really complain about. Beginning the year, it seemed as though the Heat were taking a questionable route of tanking...but not really tanking. The previous administration had aspirations to move the pieces that were inhibiting the Heat's ability to acquire a top pick, but they fell through when dormancy struck the Heat. I think this prediction could've gotten closer had someone like Gallo, Igoudala or Henson been traded/moved earlier. Great job so far Jamario, you've made a few solid value trades that should help your team's future. 


^{Chicago Bulls}

Prediction: 13th in the East (underestimated by 11 games)
Result: 10th in the East

The second of three predictions that were 'in the red'. The Bulls certainly did better than I thought, which was a huge success for them considering they didn't own their pick this year. The biggest reason for my miscalculation was PP's relentless nature to better his team this year (and for the future). When initially analyzing the team, I expected the Bulls to be near the bottom of the league due to their poor defense and assets to improve. Paul managed to find a way to circumvent those concerns, make his pick worse and get the 1st overall pick in the draft. All of this was accomplished through numerous trades and a bit of luck. Great job Paul, you never gave up on your team and it paid off tremendously!

Great analysis JT, these are great reads! 

[billy]

This might be one of the most viewed threads in D720's history.

[Justin Timberlake]

Sorry, I've been slacking! I hope to get the rest done soon

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Charlotte Hornets}

Prediction: 9th in the East (overestimated by 4 games)
Result: 11th in the East

Once again the East proves to be difficult to pinpoint. But overall, I'm quite pleased with this prediction! As I stated in my initial season prediction, Charlotte was a team that was difficult to predict. At the time, they had an interesting mix of competitive players and prospects. If Colin was to take a stance in either direction, he had the potential to vastly out-perform or under-perform the prediction. To my luck, what allowed me to get close was the Hornets took a slight dip to the tanking side, but didn't commit a complete firesale. Great job Colin, another top 10 pick and a lot to look forward to!


^{San Antonio Spurs}

Prediction: 12th in the West
Result: 12th in the West

The streak continues in the West - another correct! Just as I had predicted, the Spurs would struggle this season without adequate ball handling or 3PT shooting. They finished with the 5th worst offense in the league, scoring 95.5 pts per game. As well, they had the 4th worst 3PT% in the league, shooting 29.7% from downtown. It's not all bad for the Spurs, as they finished in the top third in offensive rebounding and shot blocking. With a few smart signings and trades to fix their weaknesses, the Spurs could look to be out of the bottom of the West in no time! Great job David, I hope to see a Spurs resurgence next season!


^{Portland Trail Blazers}

Prediction: 13th in the West
Result: 13th in the West

Bang bang, anotha one! The Blazers are one of the most exciting up-and-coming teams we have. With the exception of Dunn, the Trailblazer's young core look as promising as ever. What allowed me to get this one right was the fact that Theodore didn't rush his team to be competitive. Instead, he is taking the more patient and organic route, letting his players grow into their role. The Blazers didn't shine in anything this season except for 3PT shooting. They finished top third in 3PT attempts, makes and %. I guess the shooting from Porzingis, Booker and Fournier is more than adequate. While their defense and overall offensive efficiency needs work, they are right on track in my eyes to be a future force in the West. Great job Theodore, you never lost sight of your direction and are making promising steps forward!

[Justin Timberlake]

^{Philadelphia 76ers}

Prediction: 7th in the East (overestimated by 17 games)
Result: 12th in the East

Well this prediction is the last of the 'red' ones. I had originally predicted the 76ers to be a low playoff team with Harden and other solid surrounding talent (ZBo, Reddick, Kanter, etc). They didn't have the greatest fit, but they had a lot going for them. This all took a drastic turn when Kong took over and tanked the shit of this team. It's pretty hard to predict something like that, but perhaps I can throw in a bold pick or two predicting a tank next year? Kong took full advantage of the lineups in the sim to make his team worse, and to his credit, he managed to get the 2nd overall pick! Great job so far Julius, there's a lot to learn in this league but you have the passion to do it!


^{LA Clippers}

Prediction: 14th in the West 
Result: 14th in the West

Another one of the bottom West teams I predicted correctly! This team has suffered a lot lately. When I joined the league, I was upset at just barely missing to claim the Clippers. They were a competitive playoff team with Steph Curry and Kevin Love as their centerpieces. Now, they have plummeted to the bottom of the league with a revolving door of GMs. What allowed me to get this pick correct was predicting a Steph Curry trade and being right about the very poor defense. Unfortunately, the latest GM attempted to make this year's pick worse and sacrificed A LOT of long term flexibilty. Hopefully things can look a little better next season.  


^{Washington Wizards}

Prediction: 12th in the East (overestimated by 6 games)
Result: 13th in the East

I wasn't too far off with this one. The roster has been shaken up a bit, but overall has a similar mold to when I made my initial predictions - which I think allowed me to get close. The Wizards are still without a player that most would classify as a star. This will greatly hinder their chance at getting out of the bottom of the league any time soon. Stars are most often offensively oriented, and their lack of this was supported by finishing 2nd worst in scored points per game at 90.4 (Dallas finished last with 89.8). As well, a lack of a ball handler compounded the Wizard's poor offense. Until they find their star, I think Pete will be stuck in limbo with solid rotation and role players. But as a rebuilding team, they are where they should be and have a lot of time to turn it around. Great job Pete, you've been patient and seem to trust the process - the luck will turn in your favour soon!