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Post by Luke Walton on Jul 8, 2015 1:23:03 GMT -5
Current Rating: 71
Strengths: Inside Shots, Rebounds, Blocks Weakness: Assists, Fouls
2014-15 stats: 18.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG, PER: 22.73 Reason: 2015 Nba All-Star Starter 2015 All-NBA Second Team #4 in RPG #9 in BPG #20 in PPG
Suggested Rating: 76
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Post by Donald Trump on Jul 8, 2015 1:35:44 GMT -5
Wow i didnt noticed that he had stats like that last season, but 76 is too high! hehe i vote for 73
Just for comparison Demarcus Cousins is rated 76 and had 24 pts 13 rebs 1.6 blks per game and PER of 25.9 while also playing the same minutes as Gasol (34 MPG)
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Post by Steve Jobs on Jul 8, 2015 1:56:10 GMT -5
Yeah, impossible to ignore that part of the rating is his age. A 76 would make Pau the 10th best player in the league, which he certainly isn't. Also, as much as 2014 stats totally count, technically this sim is replacing the real life 14-15 season, so the rating would be much more accurate based on pre-2014 stats - in which case the 71 is pretty accurate still.
On the flip side of this, Marc Gasol's rating is solid and the stats are largely comparable if not in favor of Pau...
I'll say 72.
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Reggie Miller
Indiana Pacers
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Post by Reggie Miller on Jul 8, 2015 4:15:41 GMT -5
73 is enough for him..
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
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Post by Allan Houston on Jul 8, 2015 11:47:21 GMT -5
My personal ratings are pretty down on Pau, and I'm not 100% sure why. (They're largely RPM based, with adjustments for age and other factors. I think RPM is the best available one-number metric, though none are perfect) Obviously his counting stats are great, though it's pretty well established that they're inflated (13th highest usage rate among big men). His defense is fine. My guess is that it's because he eats up possessions at just league average efficiency. My algorithm has him as a 61, which is tied for 87th best so definitely a solid starter. But that seems much too low for me, so I'm gonna make an ad hoc upward adjustment.
I vote: 67
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Post by Donald Trump on Jul 8, 2015 12:07:52 GMT -5
My personal ratings are pretty down on Pau, and I'm not 100% sure why. (They're largely RPM based, with adjustments for age and other factors. I think RPM is the best available one-number metric, though none are perfect) Obviously his counting stats are great, though it's pretty well established that they're inflated (13th highest usage rate among big men). His defense is fine. My guess is that it's because he eats up possessions at just league average efficiency. My algorithm has him as a 61, which is tied for 87th best so definitely a solid starter. But that seems much too low for me, so I'm gonna make an ad hoc upward adjustment. I vote: 67 you use some kind of algo in computing ratings? but how come the result is too low 61? is that algo specific for basketball gm?
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
Posts: 4,110
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Post by Allan Houston on Jul 8, 2015 12:25:29 GMT -5
Yea, I try to translate real world metrics into my basketball-gm ratings. It's largely based on Real Plus-Minus, which as a top-down stat doesn't say why it gives the ratings it does (besides an offense/defense split). So you have to look elsewhere to try to explain it. As I said, my guess is that it's because he has too much possession time and usage at average efficiency. That still projects Pau to be a solid starter (which a 61 is), but not an all-star level player. (I know he actually was an all-star but those nominations are very biased towards basic counting stats).
Also, I think our current ratings have too uniform of a distribution (i.e. the standard deviation is too high at ~10), whereas it should have a lower standard dev, with more players clustered around average and fewer at the tails. That would reflect pretty much any real-world one number metric (PER has a standard dev ~7, WS ~6, WP ~7, RPM ~3. My metric has a standard dev of 7.8). In effect this bumps down a lot of 2nd and 3rd tier guys.
Regardless, a lot of my ratings may be truncated out if this methodology is too against the grain.
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Jul 8, 2015 16:31:13 GMT -5
73
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Post by Tony Stark on Jul 9, 2015 3:45:54 GMT -5
72
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Post by James K. Polk on Jul 9, 2015 16:15:09 GMT -5
72
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Jul 13, 2015 0:41:40 GMT -5
72
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2015 3:51:09 GMT -5
My personal ratings are pretty down on Pau, and I'm not 100% sure why. (They're largely RPM based, with adjustments for age and other factors. I think RPM is the best available one-number metric, though none are perfect) Obviously his counting stats are great, though it's pretty well established that they're inflated (13th highest usage rate among big men). His defense is fine. My guess is that it's because he eats up possessions at just league average efficiency. My algorithm has him as a 61, which is tied for 87th best so definitely a solid starter. But that seems much too low for me, so I'm gonna make an ad hoc upward adjustment. I vote: 67 You vote Pau as a 67, but Matt Barnes as a 64??
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
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Post by Allan Houston on Jul 16, 2015 8:39:28 GMT -5
My personal ratings are pretty down on Pau, and I'm not 100% sure why. (They're largely RPM based, with adjustments for age and other factors. I think RPM is the best available one-number metric, though none are perfect) Obviously his counting stats are great, though it's pretty well established that they're inflated (13th highest usage rate among big men). His defense is fine. My guess is that it's because he eats up possessions at just league average efficiency. My algorithm has him as a 61, which is tied for 87th best so definitely a solid starter. But that seems much too low for me, so I'm gonna make an ad hoc upward adjustment. I vote: 67 You vote Pau as a 67, but Matt Barnes as a 64?? Yup. And let me be clear, I have a ton of respect for the career of the future hall of famer. But it seems to be that at this point in his career Pau may be an empty stats guy who's contribution to team play is at a nadir. Treatises have been written on how similar players are overrated (e.g. Melo and David Lee and many others), and I think those outside the Bulls fandom avoid that criticism of Gasol out of respect for his past. And as a point of principle, I wish more people would make outlier opinions like mine. In the end, the truncated average is going to eliminate their influence anyway. I think it's unfortunate when people literally justify their vote by saying "I'll go with the consensus."
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2015 15:41:21 GMT -5
Not really sure if that means they are justifying it. If I'm going with the consensus it means I agree with them, not that I'm using that as justification for my reasoning. I see what you mean though, it's analytics vs. observation.
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Post by Gheorghe Mureșan on Jul 21, 2015 2:53:19 GMT -5
73
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Sept 13, 2015 11:21:17 GMT -5
92 83 42 60 92
93 87 77 79 35
85 24 50 58 96
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