Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Post by Steve Jobs on Feb 26, 2017 1:05:14 GMT -5
Current Rating: 73 I believe he deserves a decrease. For starters, his Offensive stats are down across the board. Points/game fell from 14.0 to 10.1, Assist/game fell from 7.4 to 7.2, rebounds fell from 9.5 to 8.1. On top of this, he's fallen off a noticeable amount in several different ways that aren't easily explainable by KD joining the team and taking away his volume. Most notably, his FG% dropped from 49% to 43.4%; his 3pt percentage dropped from 38.8% to 32.2%; his eFG% dropped from 55.1% to 50%; his FT% dropped from 69.6% to 67.8%; his ORtg dropped from 115 to 113, his PER dropped from 19.3 to 17.0; his OBPM dropped from 2.0 to 0.9; his WS/48 dropped from 0.190 to 0.172; his VORP dropped from 5.5 to 3.6; his ORPM dropped from 3.93 to 1.73... In short, i still think he's a great overall player and an awesome "do it all" big man, but he's not playing at nearly the historic levels he reach last season, and most of the stats I've chosen indicate this in a way that largely ignores KD's impact. 73 ratings are reserved mainly for players with near-superstar levels of impact on the game, and I don't believe that Draymond fits that bill anymore.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Feb 26, 2017 10:48:26 GMT -5
Well for starters, I think that entire first paragraph is due to KDs impact. His usage and minutes are down...which are all expected and not his fault when a player of KDs ilk joins a team. And even with less minutes, his steals (1.5 to 2.1) and blocks (1.4 to 1.5) are up and his TOs are down (3.2 to 2.4).
Even with those stats mentioned in the first paragraph are due to KDs impact and are expected to decrease slightly, his assists have actually increased per 36! For rebounds, which I've said are expected to go down with KD, have actually decreased minimally. If you look at his TRB% it's down from 14.7% to 13.7%. With the addition of KD, if you're rebounding goes down 1 flippin % I'd say that's more than fine and quite impressive.
As for the other things that have decreased, mostly offensively (as his defense has arguably gotten better), it could easily be due to the fact that he's taking less shots (2 less per game) and simply asked to do less on that end. I think it's pretty hard to get going and get hot when you're taking only a few shots per game. I know this can't really be proven, but from personal experience I'm sure we can all relate. I know from fantasy if I check my team after the 1st or 2nd quarter or something, sometimes they're shooting 1/8 and I'm like well shit there goes my FG%, and by the end of the game they finish 10/20. My point is, he's shooting 8.3 shots per game, which isn't a lot and probably hard to get hot and effective that way. The man is taking 2 less shot per game and making 1.5 less per game. Just the way percentages are it looks worse than it is.
Last things I wanted to bring up, which Steve didn't mention, are the things that have actually increased. As I've already pointed out, his steals and blocks have increased in less minutes! Especially those steals going up 0.6. His DRtg has improved from 100 to 99. As well, he has a league leading 5.2 DBPM and his BPM is EXACTLY the same as last year. So while his offense may have declined (due to one of the best offensive players joining the team) his defense has improved by this metric and actually made up for the offense. Essentially it's saying he's just as effective as last year.
I think what we're coining as a "decrease" is really just a slight shift in a player's role. Saying he's less effective or impactful I think is entirely wrong. Not too many players have had to deal with a superstar like KD joining their team and he has still found ways to be literally just as important to his team as last year. I think his rating is currently spot on and represents his "do it all" style. The criteria for 73+ is All-NBA 2nd team. Guess who was on the All-NBA 2nd team last year? You got it.
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Posts: 2,918
Likes: 2,107
Total Bank: 50,500
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Post by Steve Jobs on Feb 26, 2017 11:04:32 GMT -5
Well for starters, I think that entire first paragraph is due to KDs impact. His usage and minutes are down...which are all expected and not his fault when a player of KDs ilk joins a team. And even with less minutes, his steals (1.5 to 2.1) and blocks (1.4 to 1.5) are up and his TOs are down (3.2 to 2.4). Even with those stats mentioned in the first paragraph are due to KDs impact and are expected to decrease slightly, his assists have actually increased per 36! For rebounds, which I've said are expected to go down with KD, have actually decreased minimally. If you look at his TRB% it's down from 14.7% to 13.7%. With the addition of KD, if you're rebounding goes down 1 flippin % I'd say that's more than fine and quite impressive. As for the other things that have decreased, mostly offensively (as his defense has arguably gotten better), it could easily be due to the fact that he's taking less shots (2 less per game) and simply asked to do less on that end. I think it's pretty hard to get going and get hot when you're taking only a few shots per game. I know this can't really be proven, but from personal experience I'm sure we can all relate. I know from fantasy if I check my team after the 1st or 2nd quarter or something, sometimes they're shooting 1/8 and I'm like well shit there goes my FG%, and by the end of the game they finish 10/20. My point is, he's shooting 8.3 shots per game, which isn't a lot and probably hard to get hot and effective that way. The man is taking 2 less shot per game and making 1.5 less per game. Just the way percentages are it looks worse than it is. Last things I wanted to bring up, which Steve didn't mention, are the things that have actually increased. As I've already pointed out, his steals and blocks have increased in less minutes! Especially those steals going up 0.6. His DRtg has improved from 100 to 99. As well, he has a league leading 5.2 DBPM and his BPM is EXACTLY the same as last year. So while his offense may have declined (due to one of the best offensive players joining the team) his defense has improved by this metric and actually made up for the offense. Essentially it's saying he's just as effective as last year. I think what we're coining as a "decrease" is really just a slight shift in a player's role. Saying he's less effective or impactful I think is entirely wrong. Not too many players have had to deal with a superstar like KD joining their team and he has still found ways to be literally just as important to his team as last year. I think his rating is currently spot on and represents his "do it all" style. The criteria for 73+ is All-NBA 2nd team. Guess who was on the All-NBA 2nd team last year? You got it. I tried to make it clear at the end of the first paragraph that I acknowledge KD's effect on this counting stats. It's the multitude of percentages and advanced stats that KD doesn't/can't effect that make me feel he needs to change. Draymond isn't playing like a top 10 player this season. 8 shots per game is still plenty to get going and he's shooting significantly worse percentages across the board. Compare that to a Klay Thompson, where his offensive impact has remained virtually unchanged despite KD joining the team... Dray is obviously the odd-man out as far as offensive impact goes, and I didn't bring up his defense, not because it doesn't matter, but because it wasn't the point of my saying he needs to be decreased. His defense hasn't improved proportionally to his offensive loss, and most of his numbers that prove he's not as effective as a scorer this season are unaffected by KD joining the team.
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Posts: 2,918
Likes: 2,107
Total Bank: 50,500
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Post by Steve Jobs on Feb 26, 2017 11:06:04 GMT -5
For instance, we didn't fault David West for losing counting stats because he took a bench role. We DID fault Kevin Love for losing counting stats because across the board it was clear he wasn't the same player next to Kyrie/LeBron as he was when he was the #1 guy in Minnesota.
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Post by Justin Timberlake on Feb 26, 2017 13:42:56 GMT -5
Can you say his defense hasn't proportionally made up for his offensive 'decline'? I think that's pretty subjective. And from the little I know, BPM is one of the better all-encompassing stats? Well like I said before its exactly the same as last year, but his OBPM has gone down while his DBPM has "proportionally" made up for it. So based on that and the other things I mentioned it has.
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Posts: 2,918
Likes: 2,107
Total Bank: 50,500
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Post by Steve Jobs on Feb 26, 2017 13:49:19 GMT -5
Either way, people don't have to agree that he needs a decrease, but it's quite clear that at the least his build needs to be adjusted to account for a shift in his production.
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