Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: What to Watch For In Game 5
Jun 12, 2017 16:18:12 GMT -5
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Post by Zach Lowe on Jun 12, 2017 16:18:12 GMT -5
The 2017 D720 Playoffs have been a little bit different than in previous years, and the most accurate description of each series can be summed up in one word: Drama.
No one has been more shocked by the Seattle Supersonics shortcomings than me. Even after trading away Kyle Lowry in pursuit of extra youth, this team still boasted three of the top 5-10 players in the league, and enough reliable depth to make up for any two of the superstars having slow games. So their first two series not being disastrously boring has been a welcome sight. Their first series was a backdoor sweep that started off with two surprise victories by the Sacramento Kings (worth noting this team has dealt with more than their fair share of front office upheaval, and being in the playoffs at all seemed like a bit of a victory. Who knows if George Hill and Taj Gibson will return to lead this roster of overachievers?). Their second series looks as if it may end up the exact same way, with both teams stealing both games on the other teams home court en route to a 2-2 series tie. What's the deal with all these road victories anyway? 13 in the Western Conference Quarter Finals and 8 in the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals alone, on top of 5 in the WCSF and 7 in the ECSF. 33 road wins in 59 games for a .559 win percentage from the road team. My best guess is that a lot of teams are hearing the media noise that the title is Seattle's to lose and are playing both with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose - a dangerous combination from any underdog. Another theory here is that the officiating might be skewed this year towards extending series - an argument not upheld by the low number of games from the ECQF, but certainly not an impossibility. The league doesn't generate more income without more games.
All things considered, so far we've seen great series between Utah/Houston, Phoenix/Memphis, Brooklyn/Cleveland, Seattle/Sacramento, Seattle/New Orleans, Phoenix/Utah, Boston/Magic, and New York/Cleveland. There is a lot to dissect, but here's a few things I'll be watching for through the last few games of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
Can New York's High-Flying Offense get back on track against Cleveland?
We all watched through the regular season and their Quarter Finals series against the Bucks exactly how potent the Knicks' offensive attack can be. Even in this series against Cleveland, they've proven adversity doesn't phase them by snatching back-to-back wins on the road by 49 and 14 points respectively (143-94; 112-98). But when they've faltered, it has been their offensive punch that was missing, scoring 82 and 114 in home losses for an average of 98 points per game, a full 7 points per game below their regular season average, 15.125 points below their Playoffs average, 15.5 points below their ECQF average, and a ridiculous 29.5 points below their average in their game 3 and 4 wins. Watching the film for games 1 and 2, the team just looked completely flat, but Kemba, Jokic, and Deandra all remained pretty consistent so I was surprised they struggled so badly. After finding one notable inconsistency in the box scores, I went back to the film and the sluggish play of Rajon Rondo jumped off the screen. His return to form as a distributor off the bench seems to be absolutely crucial for the Knicks, as his 5 and 4 assists from games 1 and 2 ballooned into back to back games with 10 assists. Having both units pack a ball-moving punch is extremely necessary, and Rondo's energy off the bench seems to be a catalyst for the rest of the team. Can they maintain the momentum through sustained offensive play? Cleveland has the talent to throw out a great 2-way player at every spot in the starting lineup, and with some more consistent depth I could see them going deep, so it's up to the Knicks to bring an offensive game plan that neutralizes the elite defensive attack of Cleveland.
Can Boston sustain their defensive effort?
It is no secret after watching the first four games of this series that Boston has won thanks in large part to their defense, holding Orlando to three total 20-point performances so far (DeRozan game 3; DeRozan and McCollum game 4). In particular, it appears as if Russell Westbrook has had great success containing Chris Paul, holding him to 5, 6, 9, and 5 assists (an average of 6.25) and 14, 18, 8, and 18 points (an average of 14.5 per game). In addition, Zach Randolph and Brook Lopez have either taken turns being a non-factor on offense, or shared that particular distinction. They combined for 11 total points in their Game 4 loss. When neither of them are known all that strongly for their defense anyway, it's a very bad omen for the Magic that they're being shut down on offense against Paul Millsap (an excellent defender) and Jonas Valanciunas (a subpar one).
Speaking of Jonas, he's averaging 21.25 points per game this series, highlighted by a 30 point explosion in Game 4. He's also brought 4 blocks per game to the table (a fact surely not lost on Randolph and Lopez). It's hard to overstate his important in this series so far.
If Boston can keep up the pace on both sides of the ball, they have a great chance to close out in 5, but defense will be the more instrumental in bringing it home. So far, the Celtics have held the Magic to 84, 131, 95, and 113 points (an average of 108.25 that drops all the way to 97.33 if you drop the 131 point outing in game 2), and another strong defensive impact on Game 5 may be enough to get the job done.
On Orlando's side of things, I'll be watching closely to see if they can get more out of Randolph and Lopez, and whether or not they can get strong offensive performances from DeRozan and McCollum again. If they can get the offense moving and bring a good defensive effort, I can still imagine this series becoming very interesting.
The West has been every bit as intense as the East, so check back tomorrow for some things to watch for in the nail-biting series between Sonics/Pelicans as well as the surprisingly lopsided Jazz/Suns series. Let me know who you think wins Game 5 in the Knicks/Cavs series, and let me know below why you think they'll win.
No one has been more shocked by the Seattle Supersonics shortcomings than me. Even after trading away Kyle Lowry in pursuit of extra youth, this team still boasted three of the top 5-10 players in the league, and enough reliable depth to make up for any two of the superstars having slow games. So their first two series not being disastrously boring has been a welcome sight. Their first series was a backdoor sweep that started off with two surprise victories by the Sacramento Kings (worth noting this team has dealt with more than their fair share of front office upheaval, and being in the playoffs at all seemed like a bit of a victory. Who knows if George Hill and Taj Gibson will return to lead this roster of overachievers?). Their second series looks as if it may end up the exact same way, with both teams stealing both games on the other teams home court en route to a 2-2 series tie. What's the deal with all these road victories anyway? 13 in the Western Conference Quarter Finals and 8 in the Eastern Conference Quarter Finals alone, on top of 5 in the WCSF and 7 in the ECSF. 33 road wins in 59 games for a .559 win percentage from the road team. My best guess is that a lot of teams are hearing the media noise that the title is Seattle's to lose and are playing both with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose - a dangerous combination from any underdog. Another theory here is that the officiating might be skewed this year towards extending series - an argument not upheld by the low number of games from the ECQF, but certainly not an impossibility. The league doesn't generate more income without more games.
All things considered, so far we've seen great series between Utah/Houston, Phoenix/Memphis, Brooklyn/Cleveland, Seattle/Sacramento, Seattle/New Orleans, Phoenix/Utah, Boston/Magic, and New York/Cleveland. There is a lot to dissect, but here's a few things I'll be watching for through the last few games of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
Can New York's High-Flying Offense get back on track against Cleveland?
We all watched through the regular season and their Quarter Finals series against the Bucks exactly how potent the Knicks' offensive attack can be. Even in this series against Cleveland, they've proven adversity doesn't phase them by snatching back-to-back wins on the road by 49 and 14 points respectively (143-94; 112-98). But when they've faltered, it has been their offensive punch that was missing, scoring 82 and 114 in home losses for an average of 98 points per game, a full 7 points per game below their regular season average, 15.125 points below their Playoffs average, 15.5 points below their ECQF average, and a ridiculous 29.5 points below their average in their game 3 and 4 wins. Watching the film for games 1 and 2, the team just looked completely flat, but Kemba, Jokic, and Deandra all remained pretty consistent so I was surprised they struggled so badly. After finding one notable inconsistency in the box scores, I went back to the film and the sluggish play of Rajon Rondo jumped off the screen. His return to form as a distributor off the bench seems to be absolutely crucial for the Knicks, as his 5 and 4 assists from games 1 and 2 ballooned into back to back games with 10 assists. Having both units pack a ball-moving punch is extremely necessary, and Rondo's energy off the bench seems to be a catalyst for the rest of the team. Can they maintain the momentum through sustained offensive play? Cleveland has the talent to throw out a great 2-way player at every spot in the starting lineup, and with some more consistent depth I could see them going deep, so it's up to the Knicks to bring an offensive game plan that neutralizes the elite defensive attack of Cleveland.
Can Boston sustain their defensive effort?
It is no secret after watching the first four games of this series that Boston has won thanks in large part to their defense, holding Orlando to three total 20-point performances so far (DeRozan game 3; DeRozan and McCollum game 4). In particular, it appears as if Russell Westbrook has had great success containing Chris Paul, holding him to 5, 6, 9, and 5 assists (an average of 6.25) and 14, 18, 8, and 18 points (an average of 14.5 per game). In addition, Zach Randolph and Brook Lopez have either taken turns being a non-factor on offense, or shared that particular distinction. They combined for 11 total points in their Game 4 loss. When neither of them are known all that strongly for their defense anyway, it's a very bad omen for the Magic that they're being shut down on offense against Paul Millsap (an excellent defender) and Jonas Valanciunas (a subpar one).
Speaking of Jonas, he's averaging 21.25 points per game this series, highlighted by a 30 point explosion in Game 4. He's also brought 4 blocks per game to the table (a fact surely not lost on Randolph and Lopez). It's hard to overstate his important in this series so far.
If Boston can keep up the pace on both sides of the ball, they have a great chance to close out in 5, but defense will be the more instrumental in bringing it home. So far, the Celtics have held the Magic to 84, 131, 95, and 113 points (an average of 108.25 that drops all the way to 97.33 if you drop the 131 point outing in game 2), and another strong defensive impact on Game 5 may be enough to get the job done.
On Orlando's side of things, I'll be watching closely to see if they can get more out of Randolph and Lopez, and whether or not they can get strong offensive performances from DeRozan and McCollum again. If they can get the offense moving and bring a good defensive effort, I can still imagine this series becoming very interesting.
The West has been every bit as intense as the East, so check back tomorrow for some things to watch for in the nail-biting series between Sonics/Pelicans as well as the surprisingly lopsided Jazz/Suns series. Let me know who you think wins Game 5 in the Knicks/Cavs series, and let me know below why you think they'll win.
Miami Heat