Western Conference Semi-Finals: What To Watch For In Game 5
Jun 13, 2017 14:40:15 GMT -5
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Post by Zach Lowe on Jun 13, 2017 14:40:15 GMT -5
Sometimes in the course of a year in D720, magic happens. You have the Detroit Pistons back to back Finals runs in '15 and '16, the mysterious rise of underdog teams like 16-17 Brooklyn Nets and the 15-16 Utah Jazz during the regular season, Seattle miraculously acquiring Anthony Davis from the Bucks and opening the door for a trade that brought in Kawhi Leonard. There is so much spectacle to see that some seasons become a blur. But other times we see well-built teams get dismantled from the get go before they have a chance to make a deep playoff run. In Orlando's case, the Magic most definitely did not happen.
Boston came out with a vengeance, looking to close out their Semi-Finals series. They held Orlando's front court duo of Brook Lopez and Zach Randolph to 2/11 from the field and a combined 5 points. The valiant efforts of Chris Paul (19 points / 10 rebounds / 5 assists), DeMar DeRozan (19 points / 7 rebounds), and C.J. McCollum (20 points / 4 rebounds / 2 assists) weren't enough to overcome Boston despite a less than stellar game from Russell Westbrook. Solid performances by Thomas, Wade, and Millsap, who combined for 69 of the Celtics 111 points (led by Thomas' 31), ended up being too much to overcome for Orlando. I think possibly the most telling thing from this game was the 1/14 three-point performance of the Magic, with an astounding 0/5 coming from the Magic's sharpshooter McCollum, that doomed the Magic in a game where their bigs didn't come to play.
That doesn't even mention the intensity of the CLE-NYK series. Cleveland delivered a punch that left Knicks' GM Allan Houston dazed after a 100-83 victory on New York's home court that saw New York's offense once again sputter against the lockdown defense of the Cavaliers. A combined 12 blocks and 7 steals had the Knicks struggling to put up points, even from the Knicks' top scorer Kemba Walker, who was blocked 4 times. The common theme from Games 1-4 held true for New York once again, while Rajon Rondo was left to focus on scoring and only got his teammates involved to the tune of 4 assists. The Cavaliers take New York back to their home court for Game 6 and I would hazard a guess that it will be one for the ages. My personal prediction? The Cavaliers take advantage of the fact that Nikola Jokic is still a year or two away from fully realizing his superstar potential and let Giannis Antetokounmpo carry the team to its first Conference Finals berth in D720 history.
All of this comes at the expense of the Western Conference, which has been every bit as riveting as the East. Here's what I'll be watching as Game 5 for both of the WCSF series take place:
Which LeBron James will we get?
LeBron's performances in Games 1 and 2 of this Semi-Finals series against the New Orleans Pelicans have seen him deliver some of his most historically ineffective playoff performances, ever. For a player that GM John Stockton entrusted with the reins to the offense as point guard, LeBron sure didn't seem to get the memo until Game 4 against New Orleans, posting 5, 5, and 4 assists respectively in Games 1-3. But interestingly enough, it was his scoring that Seattle missed the most in their losses in Games 1 and 2, when LeBron's 7 and 13 points (for an average of 10 points per game) presided over 7 and 5 point losses. The 10.1 point difference between LeBron's 20.1 regular season average and the 10 he averaged in the first two games of the series would have been the difference between a 2-2 home court bloodbath of a series and a sweep in Seattle's favor. And that fails to mention that LeBron was having an ultra-stellar post-season prior to this series. A game 3 stumble of 12/6 against the Kings was the only blemish on his playoffs masterpiece, averaging 22.7 points per game through the first round. Since Game 2, LeBron has somewhat returned to form, posting 18/7/4 in game 3 and a 15/10/11 triple double in game 4. I wondered how exactly, with both Kawhi and Durant on the wings, Lebron was struggling so much, but with Wall, Bradley, Davis, and Howard shuffling around on defense and relative non-factors in Dieng, Crabbe, and Pachulia getting sizable minutes for Seattle, the double team action was real. I suspect having Kyle Lowry around to help pull defensive attention and keep the Pelicans from overcommitting with double teams would be making a massive impact on this series, but the fact remains that LeBron James is and will continue to be the top dog on this team and it's going to take him finishing out this series strong to move on to the conference finals.
A quick aside - Anthony Davis has been stellar for the Pelicans, posting averages of 22.25 points and 13.5 rebounds while tacking on over 3 blocks per game. He's been a beast on both ends of the floor, and he'll need to keep that up if the Pelicans want to pull out a win this series. I'll mainly be watching LeBron's performance, but it is hard to say that continued dominance from Davis doesn't give New Orleans a great chance to pull it off whether or not LeBron delivers great performances in the upcoming games.
Can Gordon Hayward find his offense to lead the Suns out of this 3-1 hole?
I can't necessarily point to any one side of the ball that the Suns have specifically faltered on in the midst of dropping three games to the Utah Jazz, because both sides have been bad. Their offense has been held in check to the tune of 96.8 points per game (6.5 points per game lower than their regular season average), while their defense has allowed Utah to post 102.8 points per game - just 0.4 points per game under Utah's season average, but a staggering 11 points per game more than the Suns gave up to their opponents in the regular season. While I would typically count the fact that Phoenix is underperforming dramatically on both sides of the ball as primary factors in the 2-game deficit, it is impossible to deny that having dropped 2 games on the road by 1 point a piece makes the hole seem a little less foreboding for the Suns. This could just as easily be a 3-1 lead in favor of the Suns with 2 extra points in games 3 and 4.
That said, the fear of dropping one game in the next three to a team that clearly has no lack of will power has to be getting to this Phoenix squad. They're built heavily around a defense that isn't holding up its end of the bargain while relying mainly on Lowry, Hayward, and Green for their offense (with some big help from Teletovic's 20+ point performances in games 2 and 3). The missing link is obvious in the game film and the box scores. Gordon Hayward is struggling. Averaging the second-most points in the league through the regular season at 24.1, his 14.3 points per game on 37% from the field through these first four games of the series have not been enough to pull his team in front at the end of games. Paul George and Marvin Williams have drawn the bulk of the assignment guarding Hayward, and it was especially obvious that this is a challenge that he won't find easy to overcome with his 8-point performance in the 108-80 blowout loss in Game 1.
Hayward being fresh at the end of the game is going to be crucial if they want to avoid another 1-point loss. Some options the Suns could explore to achieve that goal would be to bring Teletovic into the starting lineup to add some extra spacing around Hayward. Additionally, giving Hayward some more minutes alongside both Roberson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could keep Hayward from spending all his time trying to stop Paul George. It's an interesting proposition to go completely small - something like Lowry/Roberson/MKG/Hayward/Draymond - and hope that the extra defensive energy could be enough to get the job done, but ultimately it won't be about strategy or matchups. Hayward getting his points is a mandatory part of the Suns' main winning strategy, and if Hayward can't get his shot to fall for the next three games, the series is as good as over.
There are a lot of questions left to be answered in these two series. Phoenix certainly doesn't look outmatched on paper against the Jazz, but it will take pushing themselves to the next level to dig out of the 3-1 hole. As for Seattle, I'll be looking at that game closely to see if one of the teams can establish a rhythm going forward. Another win on Seattle's home court for the Pelicans will put the media into a frenzy, but I'm not going to count out the Supersonics until the final buzzer sounds.
Stop by tomorrow, when I'll have my post-game thoughts on these WCSF series, as well as what to watch for in each ECSF Game 6. In the meantime, tell me who you think will win each Game 5 of the WCSF, and why you think they'll win, in the comments below.
Boston came out with a vengeance, looking to close out their Semi-Finals series. They held Orlando's front court duo of Brook Lopez and Zach Randolph to 2/11 from the field and a combined 5 points. The valiant efforts of Chris Paul (19 points / 10 rebounds / 5 assists), DeMar DeRozan (19 points / 7 rebounds), and C.J. McCollum (20 points / 4 rebounds / 2 assists) weren't enough to overcome Boston despite a less than stellar game from Russell Westbrook. Solid performances by Thomas, Wade, and Millsap, who combined for 69 of the Celtics 111 points (led by Thomas' 31), ended up being too much to overcome for Orlando. I think possibly the most telling thing from this game was the 1/14 three-point performance of the Magic, with an astounding 0/5 coming from the Magic's sharpshooter McCollum, that doomed the Magic in a game where their bigs didn't come to play.
That doesn't even mention the intensity of the CLE-NYK series. Cleveland delivered a punch that left Knicks' GM Allan Houston dazed after a 100-83 victory on New York's home court that saw New York's offense once again sputter against the lockdown defense of the Cavaliers. A combined 12 blocks and 7 steals had the Knicks struggling to put up points, even from the Knicks' top scorer Kemba Walker, who was blocked 4 times. The common theme from Games 1-4 held true for New York once again, while Rajon Rondo was left to focus on scoring and only got his teammates involved to the tune of 4 assists. The Cavaliers take New York back to their home court for Game 6 and I would hazard a guess that it will be one for the ages. My personal prediction? The Cavaliers take advantage of the fact that Nikola Jokic is still a year or two away from fully realizing his superstar potential and let Giannis Antetokounmpo carry the team to its first Conference Finals berth in D720 history.
All of this comes at the expense of the Western Conference, which has been every bit as riveting as the East. Here's what I'll be watching as Game 5 for both of the WCSF series take place:
Which LeBron James will we get?
LeBron's performances in Games 1 and 2 of this Semi-Finals series against the New Orleans Pelicans have seen him deliver some of his most historically ineffective playoff performances, ever. For a player that GM John Stockton entrusted with the reins to the offense as point guard, LeBron sure didn't seem to get the memo until Game 4 against New Orleans, posting 5, 5, and 4 assists respectively in Games 1-3. But interestingly enough, it was his scoring that Seattle missed the most in their losses in Games 1 and 2, when LeBron's 7 and 13 points (for an average of 10 points per game) presided over 7 and 5 point losses. The 10.1 point difference between LeBron's 20.1 regular season average and the 10 he averaged in the first two games of the series would have been the difference between a 2-2 home court bloodbath of a series and a sweep in Seattle's favor. And that fails to mention that LeBron was having an ultra-stellar post-season prior to this series. A game 3 stumble of 12/6 against the Kings was the only blemish on his playoffs masterpiece, averaging 22.7 points per game through the first round. Since Game 2, LeBron has somewhat returned to form, posting 18/7/4 in game 3 and a 15/10/11 triple double in game 4. I wondered how exactly, with both Kawhi and Durant on the wings, Lebron was struggling so much, but with Wall, Bradley, Davis, and Howard shuffling around on defense and relative non-factors in Dieng, Crabbe, and Pachulia getting sizable minutes for Seattle, the double team action was real. I suspect having Kyle Lowry around to help pull defensive attention and keep the Pelicans from overcommitting with double teams would be making a massive impact on this series, but the fact remains that LeBron James is and will continue to be the top dog on this team and it's going to take him finishing out this series strong to move on to the conference finals.
A quick aside - Anthony Davis has been stellar for the Pelicans, posting averages of 22.25 points and 13.5 rebounds while tacking on over 3 blocks per game. He's been a beast on both ends of the floor, and he'll need to keep that up if the Pelicans want to pull out a win this series. I'll mainly be watching LeBron's performance, but it is hard to say that continued dominance from Davis doesn't give New Orleans a great chance to pull it off whether or not LeBron delivers great performances in the upcoming games.
Can Gordon Hayward find his offense to lead the Suns out of this 3-1 hole?
I can't necessarily point to any one side of the ball that the Suns have specifically faltered on in the midst of dropping three games to the Utah Jazz, because both sides have been bad. Their offense has been held in check to the tune of 96.8 points per game (6.5 points per game lower than their regular season average), while their defense has allowed Utah to post 102.8 points per game - just 0.4 points per game under Utah's season average, but a staggering 11 points per game more than the Suns gave up to their opponents in the regular season. While I would typically count the fact that Phoenix is underperforming dramatically on both sides of the ball as primary factors in the 2-game deficit, it is impossible to deny that having dropped 2 games on the road by 1 point a piece makes the hole seem a little less foreboding for the Suns. This could just as easily be a 3-1 lead in favor of the Suns with 2 extra points in games 3 and 4.
That said, the fear of dropping one game in the next three to a team that clearly has no lack of will power has to be getting to this Phoenix squad. They're built heavily around a defense that isn't holding up its end of the bargain while relying mainly on Lowry, Hayward, and Green for their offense (with some big help from Teletovic's 20+ point performances in games 2 and 3). The missing link is obvious in the game film and the box scores. Gordon Hayward is struggling. Averaging the second-most points in the league through the regular season at 24.1, his 14.3 points per game on 37% from the field through these first four games of the series have not been enough to pull his team in front at the end of games. Paul George and Marvin Williams have drawn the bulk of the assignment guarding Hayward, and it was especially obvious that this is a challenge that he won't find easy to overcome with his 8-point performance in the 108-80 blowout loss in Game 1.
Hayward being fresh at the end of the game is going to be crucial if they want to avoid another 1-point loss. Some options the Suns could explore to achieve that goal would be to bring Teletovic into the starting lineup to add some extra spacing around Hayward. Additionally, giving Hayward some more minutes alongside both Roberson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could keep Hayward from spending all his time trying to stop Paul George. It's an interesting proposition to go completely small - something like Lowry/Roberson/MKG/Hayward/Draymond - and hope that the extra defensive energy could be enough to get the job done, but ultimately it won't be about strategy or matchups. Hayward getting his points is a mandatory part of the Suns' main winning strategy, and if Hayward can't get his shot to fall for the next three games, the series is as good as over.
There are a lot of questions left to be answered in these two series. Phoenix certainly doesn't look outmatched on paper against the Jazz, but it will take pushing themselves to the next level to dig out of the 3-1 hole. As for Seattle, I'll be looking at that game closely to see if one of the teams can establish a rhythm going forward. Another win on Seattle's home court for the Pelicans will put the media into a frenzy, but I'm not going to count out the Supersonics until the final buzzer sounds.
Stop by tomorrow, when I'll have my post-game thoughts on these WCSF series, as well as what to watch for in each ECSF Game 6. In the meantime, tell me who you think will win each Game 5 of the WCSF, and why you think they'll win, in the comments below.
Miami Heat