Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Nov 9, 2017 7:56:43 GMT -5
Current rating 66 (it was 68 before the height rating change) Porzingis needs a really BIG increase in his rating. He has become Top 10 player in the league this year. He has taken a huge leap forward this year. Playing more minutes, taking more shots, but also doing it much more efficient than ever before while being the focus on each opponents defense every night. All the shooting percentages are up from last year 55% twos, 38% threes and 83% FT. His points per 36min are up from 19.9pts to 32.7pts (!). This all while being still one of the top rim protectors in the whole league 29.1 PER (4th in NBA) 30.0 points per game (2nd in NBA) 2.3 blocks per game (3rd in NBA, he is also 2nd in block percentage after Gobert)
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Post by Steve Jobs on Nov 9, 2017 13:15:41 GMT -5
Current rating 66 (it was 68 before the height rating change) Porzingis needs a really BIG increase in his rating. He has become Top 10 player in the league this year. He has taken a huge leap forward this year. Playing more minutes, taking more shots, but also doing it much more efficient than ever before while being the focus on each opponents defense every night. All the shooting percentages are up from last year 55% twos, 38% threes and 83% FT. His points per 36min are up from 19.9pts to 32.7pts (!). This all while being still one of the top rim protectors in the whole league 29.1 PER (4th in NBA) 30.0 points per game (2nd in NBA) 2.3 blocks per game (3rd in NBA, he is also 2nd in block percentage after Gobert) Hold up now. No offense, but regardless of all other arguments, calling the guy a top 10 player in the NBA based on 10 games is a stretch every time. He's playing incredibly well, and has always had sky-high potential, but my main problem here is that I think your argument fails to address a couple of extremely important points that should temper his rating -- for now! - 1) He has yet to be an All-Star, and 68 is the new all-star tier, so he's not wildly underrated based on the whole of his career. - 2) He has consistently struggled to maintain his early season production in both of his previous two seasons. He averaged 21+ ppg through 16 games in November of last season and dropped all the way down to his 18.1 in his other 50 games. Also, despite his defensive reputation and high block numbers, he's posting a career worst -1.8 DBPM. The extra offensive numbers are nice, but I struggle to see how he could maintain them. If shouldering such a huge USG% is affecting his defense this much, and his numbers seem pretty unsustainable, anything but a small preliminary boost while we wait out the question of "how consistently can he play like this?" would be too much.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Nov 9, 2017 13:45:33 GMT -5
He was borderline all star last year. It's not that huge leap to become a good all star and all-NBA player. At least currently he is playing like one. If it lasts the whole year, we'll see.
Top 10 is obviously a bit extra hype from me (top 15 is still all-NBA), but typically people are hesitant to give huge rating increases at once, even if they are deserved. So some extra hype is always good. It's not just me saying thiw. I think it was last week also in Nate Duncan's podcast they were calling KP a at the moment the third best player in the Eastern conference after Giannis and Lebron. And he was also killing it in Eurobasket this summer, so there is more proof than these NBA games that he has taken a big leap.
This was Steve's own post in Ben Simmons stockwatch. I do fully agree with it. ;)
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Post by Steve Jobs on Nov 9, 2017 16:20:38 GMT -5
He was borderline all star last year. It's not that huge leap to become a good all star and all-NBA player. At least currently he is playing like one. If it lasts the whole year, we'll see. Top 10 is obviously a bit extra hype from me (top 15 is still all-NBA), but typically people are hesitant to give huge rating increases at once, even if they are deserved. So some extra hype is always good. It's not just me saying thiw. I think it was last week also in Nate Duncan's podcast they were calling KP a at the moment the third best player in the Eastern conference after Giannis and Lebron. And he was also killing it in Eurobasket this summer, so there is more proof than these NBA games that he has taken a big leap. This was Steve's own post in Ben Simmons stockwatch. I do fully agree with it. In fairness, it's two wildly different concepts... the rating of a second-year rookie that was picked #1 overall being way too low to match up to expectations or real life production vs. a third year player with a borderline All-Star rating and two seasons worth of games as a baseline measure for his production. Asking that Ben Simmons be upgraded from a below-replacement level rating to a middle-of-the-pack starter rating so that he's somewhat usable in the sim vs. asking for a player who has yet to be an All-Star to get an All-Star rating based off of ten games that show marked improvement isn't the same. In KP's case, we've got a lot of evidence that's he's "somewhere between top 75 and top 25" good, and 10 games worth of evidence that he might be anywhere in the top 25, and by asking to increase from 66 you're asking that he be rated like a top 25 player. In Ben's case we have 10 games of top 40 production (and the #1 overall selection to suggest he's got top 25 player upside), and by asking to increase him from a 57 I only hoped for him to be anything above a 57 so that he could be somewhat comparable to real life. That said, I do understand that many of the voters cast their rating as a measure of him not deserving a great rating yet, understand both sides of the argument, and would more often than not lean towards this kind of caution with ratings if I have any doubts about a player's ability. Had anybody come forth with a convincing reason why expectations should be tempered for Ben going forward, I wouldn't have been upset about it. I think my reasons for tempering expectations for KP is valid. Is he playing amazing? Yup. Do I expect him to be an all-star this season? Sure. Do I think he needs the standard 40-ish games of "prove it" time before giving him that boost, because of his past production in the league? Also yes.
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Nov 10, 2017 10:56:39 GMT -5
66 might be a little low even based on last years production
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