Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
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Post by Allan Houston on Jan 16, 2018 14:35:42 GMT -5
Current Rating: 73 Just rated too high. Is Klay clearly an all-star this season, let alone borderline All-NBA 1st team? His 16.9 PER is above average, but ranks just 99th among players with 200+ minutes. His BPM is -0.1, which is pretty notable being a Warrior. He looks better under BPM, with a 2.07. That ranks 7th among SGs, 47th overall. Still not a all-star caliber rank. He's still an insane shooter, probably the second best all-time. His TS% is actually a career high .602. But he doesn't do a ton else. He doesn't rebound. He's not a great passer. His steal rate is average. He is one of these guys who everyone agrees is a good defender, but no metric ever bares that out.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Jan 17, 2018 3:17:29 GMT -5
I really have to disagree here PER is just a unbelievable bad stat to say how much impact a player can have on the court. Draymond Green has pretty much same PER as Klay 17.1. Is he also just above average player? Klay has been All-Star for past 3 years and is playing at the same level also for this year. I bet he makes it also this year, as he also deserves as one of the best two-way players in the league. Of course he is not huge assist guy (although AST% is actually up from last year) because he is not asked to do it. Klay is one of all time greats in getting open and hitting catch and shoot jumpers. But in different system than GSW he would surely be able to do also more. Already now when both Curry and KD are on the bench, you can see Klay attacking to the rim much more often and not just settling for jumpers. Last February the stockwatch was started with pretty much with the same arguments as now, and he was voted to keep the all-star rating: dynasty720.proboards.com/thread/3418/klay-thompsonI agree also what John said last year about his defense: I've personally seen his defense to defend those metrics. stats are nice, but they're only a representation of what a player can do and despite his somewhat less impressive stats. he has shown over the years that he can go toe to toe with some of the juggernauts in the NBA (e.g. Irving, harden, lillard) NBA is full of guys who are bad defenders, who just gamble to get steals. Klay is opposite of that. He doesn't care of personal stats. When you watch him defend it's never about reaching, just keeping in front of the attacker and making sure they don't get a good shot. Or denying the entry pass in the first place. If there would be a stat for when a guy has to pass the ball away because they couldn't get a shot up, I bet he would be in top of the league in that. And every night he is doing this against the best offensive guys in the opponents team. Having said all this.. I agree he deserves a bit of a decrease. He was voted 71 last year and was automatically pumped to 73 because of the height rating change. Most likely he is not gonna make first team All-NBA what 73 suggests.
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Allan Houston
New York Knicks
Deputy Commissioner
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Post by Allan Houston on Jan 17, 2018 23:50:16 GMT -5
PER is fine to establish a prior. Of course, it's not the end-all, be-all, having well-known flaws.
And this post sounds similar to last year's because my own stance hasn't changed.
Think about it this way: How would you put together a build for Klay? A very high rating for 3s. A high rating for Free Throws and mid-range, sure. But he's nothing special in the Post, and doesn't score much At the Rim for a 6'7" guy. And all the skills should be, what, average? Steals, average. Assists, average. Rebounds, below average for his height. Dribbling, average, maybe sightly above? Blocks, maybe slightly above average for his height? Regardless, there are 5 components going into the overall that are in the 40-75 range and a couple more that should be a bit lower than that in rebounds and dunks? Even if we jack up the physical stats to try to get Dp (with A almost certainly subsumed), I think it's hard to see a path to a 73 rating where some of those previously mentioned ratings aren't jacked up beyond what Klay has shown.
I think of Klay as similar to the rim-running bigs. A great player for sure, but because his game as is isn't super versatile, his sim build's Overall maybe should be deflated a bit.
Side-note: anyone know any deep-dive into why guys like Klay and Avery Bradley often are rated poorly by defensive metrics? My guess would be relatively low steals deflate box-score based stats. And a split between on-ball defense and team-defense deflates the plus-minus based stats, with only the latter really making an impact. (And might indicate that the former isn't necessarily as valuable)
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Jan 18, 2018 2:49:25 GMT -5
To get him more realistic build, he would deserve the Dp attribute. But I guess only way that sim thinks someone is a good perimeter defender is if they are very good at getting steals. So my solution would be to increase the steal rating for good defenders like Klay and Bradley who don't get much steals.
Maybe they would get 0.5-1.0 steals more than in real life, but at least the "end result" from the sim would be more realistic since the defensive impact would be taken into consideration. Bit of unrealism in the stats would add more realism to sim results.
Edit. It's not like this solution would also cause that all players need inflated steal ratings. I think in the end it would be only couple of players e.g. Klay, M.Smart who don't have the Dp attribute but would probably deserve it.
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Jan 18, 2018 9:08:14 GMT -5
I agree with both sides here, myself. I don't see him maintaining that rating, because he is a glorified role player. However, he may be the best at playing that role in the entire NBA. Does anyone else have someone they'd rather want as their Klay Thompson than Klay Thompson? The fact is the skills he is elite at are needed in any successful on-court lineup in 2018. I'd also argue that players that bring the same type of stuff to the table, but also have higher usages, deflate the usefulness of the 3&D role by always having an on-ball defender on them, (Looking at other wings like JB or PG). However, I do stand by what I said in the trade thread for Klay that if he was the #1 option on a team like the Sun's his stats would look much much worse than they do now.
With all that together I see a lowered overall for Klay, but support him having the Dp attribute as well.
I would be careful about getting locked into the idea that our rating labeled "steals" is just about steals, anyway. We will be building him to reach a certain mark in perimeter defense (the actual skill used in the sim), and if steals is the category that makes the most sense for those points to go (as opposed to speed et al), then that's where they'll go.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Jan 24, 2018 9:16:34 GMT -5
In case someone missed it. Klay was again voted to All-Star reserves by NBA coaches ;)
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Steve Jobs
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Post by Steve Jobs on Jan 24, 2018 10:20:25 GMT -5
In case someone missed it. Klay was again voted to All-Star reserves by NBA coaches ;) Correct. All-star reserves (and I think a pretty consensus "last few in" reserve at that) would be near the bottom of all-star caliber ratings, the baseline for which is a 68 now. No one was really questioning if he was an all-star, just if he was a top 5-10 player. It was obvious he was no longer on par with other 73's in the new ratings calibration, so he's definitely represented more accurately now.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Jan 24, 2018 10:36:06 GMT -5
In case someone missed it. Klay was again voted to All-Star reserves by NBA coaches Correct. All-star reserves (and I think a pretty consensus "last few in" reserve at that) would be near the bottom of all-star caliber ratings, the baseline for which is a 68 now. No one was really questioning if he was an all-star, just if he was a top 5-10 player. It was obvious he was no longer on par with other 73's in the new ratings calibration, so he's definitely represented more accurately now. Yeap.. I didn't disagree he should't decrease from 73. Just mentioning since Allan was questioning if he is all star caliber this year Just a small remark. The voting guide says all stars starts from 68.8.. I would round up that to 69. Edit. I didn't see that the new rating had been already set to 69. I thought the voting was still ongoing. Nevermind
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