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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 23, 2018 20:05:20 GMT -5
To populate the forum during the off-season, I'd like to announce that I plan on doing a three part "Top 5 Trash and Treasures" analysis series. These will be my personal hot takes in response to what went down in the 2018 D720 draft, free agency, and regular season trades. I'll try to post once a day, counting down from number five to number one. (However, I'm pretty sure that my next post on this thread won't be until the 26th, because of real life responsibilities.) And, if I name one of your moves trash, please don't be offended. "Trash and Treasures" is just a fun alliteration, and I'm often wrong anyway. I wish everyone the best of luck with all of their moves, this is just the way I see things. To explain my methodology in the draft analysis, I'd like to point out that I'm mainly concerned with added value from picks. That is, JJJ at number three is a good pick, sure, but a very predictable one. I'm considering "Treasures" examples of a GM doing a lot with a little, and "Trash" as squandered opportunities. So, without further ado... TREASURE #5 - Michael Jordan selects Jerome Robinson at 23 Robinson is an interesting case, because most people (myself included) thought that the Clippers taking him at 13 was a reach. However, Robinson was on my radar as a sleeper in the mid-late first, and the fact that he was taken so high in the NBA draft raises his D720 stock for me. And in my opinion, taking a guy 10 spots or more below his real life draft position is almost always a good gamble, especially in the late first where you're actually lucky to get just a good rotation player. Robinson, the 6'5" guard out of Boston College, looks to be a guy who can have a role in the league as a spark plug bench player if nothing else. Not only is he a good shooter, but he also has a good enough handle that he might be able to create for himself and others. No one is a sure bet, but with his scoring and creating ability, Scalabrine can see avenues to him becoming a starting caliber SG. At this stage in the draft, having even a shot at being that level of player makes him an excellent pick. There are certainly questions about his game--can he really defend? If so, how many positions? Is he athletic enough to get to the rim and finish? Will he be enough of a willing passer to thrive as an axillary scoring option early on in his career? These questions are yet to be answered--but if the strengths of his game are strong enough, it will only matter so much. I think that in a perfect world, he follows a Lou Williams/Cj McCollum mold in a bigger frame. These are guys who can shoot the lights out, are crafty with the ball, and relatively quick. They play valuable roles as scorers in the offense and secondary ball handlers but struggle on defense. These are really efficient long distance shooters at high volumes--I'm not saying it's terribly likely he'll reach that kind of scoring ability, but it's possible. And, even if he gets to between 50 - 75% of that kind of scoring expertise, if he can use his frame to become an average or above average defender, Robinson would become a very valuable player. On the other side of things, maybe he'll get swallowed up by LAC's guard rotation, his offense will only partially translate to the NBA, and he'll be a bad defender. If that's the case, he'll be lucky if he's in the league in five years. In any case, I think this is a great pick for Cleveland--they get a guy who has a fair chance of becoming an above average to very good scorer late in the first round. Hitting on these kinds of picks is what makes the difference between good teams and great teams. Best of luck, Michael Jordan ! |
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Jackie Kong
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Post by Jackie Kong on Aug 23, 2018 21:50:34 GMT -5
Don't want to see any of your 12 picks on this.  |
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 23, 2018 21:56:20 GMT -5
Don't want to see any of your 12 picks on this. Lol, you won't. I don't need to qualify my picks because I've got nothing to prove! I already know I killed that shit |
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Jackie Kong
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Post by Jackie Kong on Aug 23, 2018 22:03:49 GMT -5
Good. When doing this, it doesn't show up in the draft page but remember Stuff picked LiAngelo.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 23, 2018 22:25:59 GMT -5
Good. When doing this, it doesn't show up in the draft page but remember Stuff picked LiAngelo. New number one treasure |
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Aug 24, 2018 0:19:00 GMT -5
Good. When doing this, it doesn't show up in the draft page but remember Stuff picked LiAngelo. New number one treasure spoiled it for them |
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 24, 2018 3:53:49 GMT -5
#5 TRASH - Backup Point Guards
For me, this is draft methodology. The big thing here is that backup PG is the easiest role to fill in the league. Every season there's a new guy who went undrafted that comes out of the G-League as a decent backup PG: Tim Frazier, To go Ferrel, Mike James, ect. These are waiver wire signings--hell, last year I signed Shabazz Napier, Milos Teodosic, and Ty Wallace all as regular season free agents. Rest assured, if you need a back-up point guard, you will find one diring the season. So why would you draft a PG without real starter potential?
1. You're a contender, it's late in the draft and backup PG is your only real need (unlikely)
2. The player you are drafting landed in a situation where there's a real chance they will move into a starting role.
For most of y'all, neither were true. Ultimately, after the lottery the best move is to target players with either a scarce skill set or who stand a chance to get significant rotation minutes in the next two years.
Will some of the PGs taken after 15 have ten year careers? Quite possibly. But will they ever be real core piece, needle moving players? Most of them, probably not. And more importantly, could you get a similarly useful player for equal value or less? Almost certainly.
In Scalabrine's opinion, if you're about to use pick 25 on a PG, you should very seriously consider trading that pick for an established backup PG and a second rounder. Chances are that the PG you trade for will be very comparable to the guy you would have drafted. And when you add the chance of hitting on a sleeper, and subtract the chance that your pick might be out of the league in three years, you'll win that trade nine times out of ten.
In any case, good luck to De'Anthony Melton, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Jalen Brunson, Jevon Carter, Shake Milton, and all the other PGs picked after SGA. I hope they prove me wrong!
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Theodore Duncan
 Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Aug 24, 2018 5:01:38 GMT -5
#5 TRASH - Backup Point Guards For me, this is draft methodology. The big thing here is that backup PG is the easiest role to fill in the league. Every season there's a new guy who went undrafted that comes out of the G-League as a decent backup PG: Tim Frazier, To go Ferrel, Mike James, ect. These are waiver wire signings--hell, last year I signed Shabazz Napier, Milos Teodosic, and Ty Wallace all as regular season free agents. Rest assured, if you need a back-up point guard, you will find one diring the season. So why would you draft a PG without real starter potential? 1. You're a contender, it's late in the draft and backup PG is your only real need (unlikely) 2. The player you are drafting landed in a situation where there's a real chance they will move into a starting role. For most of y'all, neither were true. Ultimately, after the lottery the best move is to target players with either a scarce skill set or who stand a chance to get significant rotation minutes in the next two years. Will some of the PGs taken after 15 have ten year careers? Quite possibly. But will they ever be real core piece, needle moving players? Most of them, probably not. And more importantly, could you get a similarly useful player for equal value or less? Almost certainly. In Scalabrine's opinion, if you're about to use pick 25 on a PG, you should very seriously consider trading that pick for an established backup PG and a second rounder. Chances are that the PG you trade for will be very comparable to the guy you would have drafted. And when you add the chance of hitting on a sleeper, and subtract the chance that your pick might be out of the league in three years, you'll win that trade nine times out of ten. In any case, good luck to De'Anthony Melton, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Jalen Brunson, Jevon Carter, Shake Milton, and all the other PGs picked after SGA. I hope they prove me wrong! Based on the first treasure post I was expecting Landry Shamet to be in treasures not in trash :D
since he was irl pick #26 who I got at #42. Anyways, I'm happy with the pick
I see the point, but it's hard to get a decent guy if you are over the cap and can only offer min. Maybe with the improved MLE system there is a better chance to get someone mid-season, but there is always some tank commander offering 4 x 1.2M for the next Yogi Ferrel just to get a free asset, even if they don't need the guy.
And then there is the thing of losing the guy anyways in UFA in few years, so then you are stuck with the same waiver wire game every season. But with own picks, if you draft the right guy you can get a super cheap back-up locked for 5-7 years.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 24, 2018 5:09:13 GMT -5
#5 TRASH - Backup Point Guards For me, this is draft methodology. The big thing here is that backup PG is the easiest role to fill in the league. Every season there's a new guy who went undrafted that comes out of the G-League as a decent backup PG: Tim Frazier, To go Ferrel, Mike James, ect. These are waiver wire signings--hell, last year I signed Shabazz Napier, Milos Teodosic, and Ty Wallace all as regular season free agents. Rest assured, if you need a back-up point guard, you will find one diring the season. So why would you draft a PG without real starter potential? 1. You're a contender, it's late in the draft and backup PG is your only real need (unlikely) 2. The player you are drafting landed in a situation where there's a real chance they will move into a starting role. For most of y'all, neither were true. Ultimately, after the lottery the best move is to target players with either a scarce skill set or who stand a chance to get significant rotation minutes in the next two years. Will some of the PGs taken after 15 have ten year careers? Quite possibly. But will they ever be real core piece, needle moving players? Most of them, probably not. And more importantly, could you get a similarly useful player for equal value or less? Almost certainly. In Scalabrine's opinion, if you're about to use pick 25 on a PG, you should very seriously consider trading that pick for an established backup PG and a second rounder. Chances are that the PG you trade for will be very comparable to the guy you would have drafted. And when you add the chance of hitting on a sleeper, and subtract the chance that your pick might be out of the league in three years, you'll win that trade nine times out of ten. In any case, good luck to De'Anthony Melton, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Jalen Brunson, Jevon Carter, Shake Milton, and all the other PGs picked after SGA. I hope they prove me wrong! Based on the first treasure post I was expecting Landry Shamet to be in treasures not in trash :D
since he was irl pick #26 who I got at #42. Anyways, I'm happy with the pick
I see the point, but it's hard to get a decent guy if you are over the cap and can only offer min. Maybe with the improved MLE system there is a better chance to get someone mid-season, but there is always some tank commander offering 4 x 1.2M for the next Yogi Ferrel just to get a free asset, even if they don't need the guy.
And then there is the thing of losing the guy anyways in UFA in few years, so then you are stuck with the same waiver wire game every season. But with own picks, if you draft the right guy you can get a super cheap back-up locked for 5-7 years.
I'll admit that YOU drafting Shamet where you did totally makes sense. Didn't mean to call out your pick specifically--but to your point, back-up PGs are one of my potential exceptions to the rule of thumb that you should always pick a guy who is falling. But in your position, as a team picking in the mid-second with title aspirations and strapped for cap space, BPA makes perfect sense, Shamet was a good pick for you. It's just a general rule of thumb, and all of them are mafe to be broken for the right reasons. |
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Aug 24, 2018 5:27:17 GMT -5
Yeah. It totally got your point. One additional thing is that PGs often take couple of years to develop and become useful, and it's hard to justify picking up a second rounders contract when they haven't shown anything yet during the first year. One example. When I took over Blazers I got Dinwiddie on a cheap rookie contract. I declined his TO after 2 years just to open up a roster spot, since he didn't get any playing time in Detroit and it looked like he would be out of the league. And obviously then he had the breakout season the following year.  |
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billy
 Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Aug 24, 2018 16:25:41 GMT -5
I like both Brunson and Carter.
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Yeezy
 Dallas Mavericks
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Post by Yeezy on Aug 24, 2018 16:29:51 GMT -5
Doncic ROY not even close. Bamba will bust like all other Magic picks.
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Paul Pierce
 Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Aug 24, 2018 16:30:32 GMT -5
I like both Brunson and Carter. same here, took Carter in D5 couldn't be happier. I feel like he can contribute defensively immediately. Hopefully he can develop offensive y |
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Aug 24, 2018 16:34:30 GMT -5
I like both Brunson and Carter. same here, took Carter in D5 couldn't be happier. I feel like he can contribute defensively immediately. Hopefully he can develop offensive y Not sure he'll ever be very efficient but he won't fuck up a whole lot on offense and he's a playmaker with the ball |
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Post by Penny Hardaway on Aug 24, 2018 19:08:18 GMT -5
Brunson will have a solid career mostly as a backup though.
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Post by Brian Scalabrine on Aug 29, 2018 17:17:21 GMT -5
#4 TRASH - Stuff The Magic Dragon passes on Robert Williams at 17 The draft is always a crapshoot, and I'm nearly always a proponent of BPA regardless of fit, but Robert Williams to Orlando seems like a would-be match made in heaven. Orlando, a team with some legit talent that has been underperforming for a while, seems like a good candidate to draft for fit if they want to become a real playoff team. As most of us have observed, they've shuffled through a list of big men in a search for interior defense: Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Pau Gasol, Jonas Valanciunas, ect... While I DO think that Jonas might finally fill this need for Orlando, the fact remains that he's only on a two year contract and the rest of Orlando's big men don't appear to be long term keepers. Robert "Snooze Button" Williams isn't exactly a shoe-in to be a guy with a 10+ year career, but his most projectable skill is something we've seen Stuff search for all season: interior defense. While Mitchell Robinson would perhaps be the very savviest pick by Stuff at this stage if he's looking for rim protection, at draft time Williams would have seemed like less of a reach. I'm not a huge fan of Donte myself, but the pick Stuff made wasn't outside of Donte's range. But with guys like Butler and Fournier on the roster, does the Donte pick stand a real chance to affect the team's success this season? It seems unlikely. Would Williams have improved their success? It's definitely not certain, but to me it seems like a much greater chance than Donte providing the missing piece. Ultimately, only time will tell how this pick will play out. Maybe Donte becomes a cornerstone type piece. Maybe Williams becomes an All-Defense tier defender. In any case, best of luck to Stuff The Magic Dragon , here's hoping Double D proves me wrong! |
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Jackie Kong
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Post by Jackie Kong on Aug 29, 2018 17:26:46 GMT -5
Rookies hardly make an impact though. It took almost a full season for Tatum to reach a 58. x_x
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Aug 29, 2018 17:37:20 GMT -5
Donte would be a role player at best. Trouble with Williams is his attitude, I see him boding a Larry Sanders-type of aura lol
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Sept 8, 2018 19:51:15 GMT -5
is this dead
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Mar 7, 2019 7:47:31 GMT -5
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Mar 7, 2019 7:47:56 GMT -5
I must admit, I should've drafted Mitchell Robinson
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Shaq O'Neal
 LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Mar 7, 2019 7:59:19 GMT -5
I must admit, I should've drafted Mitchell Robinson He is a shot blocking monster.I can see him being a future DPOTY |
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Mar 7, 2019 15:16:02 GMT -5
Robinson averages 6.1 fouls per 36 haha. He tries to block everything in his sight. Once he gets more disciplined defensively, he'll be a really good player
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Mar 7, 2019 18:57:18 GMT -5
Robinson averages 6.1 fouls per 36 haha. He tries to block everything in his sight. Once he gets more disciplined defensively, he'll be a really good player JJJ averages 5.2 per 36. They're still young and raw but the potential is there |
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Mar 7, 2019 20:00:08 GMT -5
Robinson averages 6.1 fouls per 36 haha. He tries to block everything in his sight. Once he gets more disciplined defensively, he'll be a really good player JJJ averages 5.2 per 36. They're still young and raw but the potential is there agreed |
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Toronto Raptors
Orlando Magic
