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Steve Job's 10 Crazy Predictions for the 18-19 Season
Aug 24, 2018 10:55:13 GMT -5
billy, Brian Scalabrine, and 8 more like this
Post by Steve Jobs on Aug 24, 2018 10:55:13 GMT -5
Taking a page from Zach Lowe's book - I'm going to make 10 crazy predictions about things that I think we might see around the league this season. I fully expect all 10 of these to be wrong, but I'm still gonna go for it just for fun.
I'll attempt to avoid record/standings predictions, since I know we'll probably get plenty of fully fleshed out Standings articles later on (I might even do one). If this goes well and I have material for more, I may knock out another 10 next week.
Without further ado, 10 Crazy Predictions for the 18-19 D720 Season:
1. The Lakers will consider trading one of their big three after a disappointing start to the season.
The only thing holding up the Lakers is the mixture of Kawhi/Klay/Gobert with some added fire power from Lou Williams. With no true point guard to lead their offense, a trio of subpar facilitators*, and very questionable depth, I expect to see the Lakers struggle a bit out the gate and lose some match ups they shouldn't thanks to a bench that can't keep up. Kawhi Leonard returning to MVP levels of play will be crucial for avoiding those struggles, but that's an outcome that remains to be seen.
Regardless of Kawhi's performance, I expect to see Ron Artest(1x Champ) shop Klay or Gobert for a package of two or three good contributors before the D720 New Year if the Lakers take time to figure things out. A team like Phoenix, hoping to recapture the late season magic that propelled them to the finals, may consider targeting a guy like Klay if Gordon Hayward isn't himself right away or if Jamal Murray continues to have an uncertain place in their line up behind Bledsoe... more on Phoenix in a moment...
A deal may not get finalized, after all this is three all-stars in their prime with a little bit of room to maneuver and an easy Free Agency depth haul away from a top 4 finish in a tough Western Conference, but if something goes down I think Klay is the odd-man out with his expiring deal and league-wide coveted skill set.
*(All three average less than 2.5 assists per game for their career and the best AST% among them in a season is Kawhi's 16-17 with 18.9% - which would have been good for just 37th in the league this season, right behind Donovan Mitchell)
2. The Phoenix Suns may bench Gordon Hayward... at least for a stretch of the season.
A team "benching" their star player should probably be huge news, although in this case I don't expect it to turn a ton of heads if this comes true. This prediction stems entirely from the exceptional level of talent available in the projected Celtics starting line up in real life, plus knowing that injury recovery is never as "smooth sailing" as expected. If Gordon Hayward comes out of the gate putting up either a) solid numbers on subpar efficiency, or b) diminished numbers on normal efficiency... it may be in the Sun's best interest to test out deploying Hayward as an uber-6th-man until he returns to form.
OG Anunoby is the sole reason this may be possible, stepping into a probable starting role with the Raptors and showcasing continued excellence on both ends of the floor. With Eric Bledsoe manning the starting point guard job, and Jamal Murray potentially set for a break out at the same position, it wouldn't surprise me if the Suns are forced to get creative to give their best players time on the court. While I don't foresee a trade - if only because questions about WHO should start on a team capable of reaching the Finals are a blessing rather than a curse - a combination of both Murray somehow overtaking Bledsoe for the starting job AND OG failing to make a splash for the Raptors irl may be the only possibility that leads Justin Timberlake to continue to utilize the four man unit of MKG/Hayward/Favors/Drummond in the long term.
3. The Pelicans will trade for Jimmy Butler (or acquire another star player while trying).
It's no secret the Pelicans are looking to add a big name to pair with superstar Anthony Davis - at 25 and on a staggeringly good deal for a player of his caliber, anything short of putting a team around him that can contend for titles is a failure that could force the "Pelicans making the playoffs" experiment into an early grave (though world renowned tanker billy may genuinely welcome that).
One name that fits relatively well and should be available is Orlando Magic star Jimmy Butler - with the main hindrance being that point guard is a bigger positional issue and the current roster has the issue of too many mouths to feed on the wing (Josh Jackson, Avery Bradley, RHJ, Winslow, J. Simmons, and Kennard) that even trading for Butler may not alleviate completely. But - to bastardize one of my favorite sports cliches - the best ability is availability... even when "availability" refers to being a realistic option on the trade market. Butler and Davis would mesh about as well as Davis and Cousins did on the real life Pelicans, with the obvious upside of vastly improving perimeter defense and giving the team a level of line up flexibility that makes a coaches job simultaneously impossibly difficult and simple at the same time. I have to admit that the staggering potential perimeter defense possible from a "big ball" line up of AB/Butler/Jackson/RHJ/AD is enough to make fans of defense salivate a bit, even if it is overwhelmingly unlikely that Billy could bring in Butler without giving up at least one of those players.
Another option could be a blockbuster trade with the 76ers - but again, we'll get to that in a moment.
4. The Philadelphia 76ers will trade one (or both) of their star guards.
The issue with any superstar pairing is that any overlapping skills they have inevitably become less potent. As seen this last season with the rl Rockets having major success with Harden and CP3, two point guards can coexist well and produce excellent results. Other times, you have the rl Warriors trading a guy like Monta Ellis for a productive Center to improve their defense.
Considering that for the 76ers the title of THIRD BEST PLAYER remains largely up for grabs, moving on from the Harden/Lillard duo seems to be more necessity than possibility. Their SF and PF positions yield no notable additions of perimeter defense (Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot may actually be their best and only option to start at SF), and Harden and Lillard both suffer from somewhat extreme cases of "I carry my offense to hard to be a good defender"-itis.
Regardless of the direction implications, there is little left to be seen from this 76ers team. "Blow it up" doesn't have to be the name of the game, housing the reigning MVP for even a season gives enough upside to go all in on contending, but it may be equally time to focus on the future, and in that case BOTH players may wind up with new homes come the end of the season... Philly will need a new GM first no matter what.
5. The Toronto Raptors will have a Rookie of the Year challenger.
Not exactly a bold bet on a team whose GM Brian Scalabrine wheeled and dealed his way to four selections in the first round of the rookie draft, but here's my actual bold prediction which for suspense purposes couldn't be in the main prediction - it won't be 6th overall pick Mohamed Bamba.
Some combination of Markkanen and Kuzma will take up enough of the front court offense that Bamba, not known primarily for his offense anyhow, won't make a big enough scoring impact to challenge for RoY honors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with an unimpeded starting PG role and a likely two-way producer out the gate irl, has a shot to be right up there. Ayton is on a team with a couple of decent centers in Henson/Lopez, and a productive starting PG that will most likely lead the team in points easily, plus his real life counter part will be fighting for touches with Booker and 2nd year JJ (great for real life, bad for ratings boosts). Doncic has his question marks and Kent Bazemore most likely dominating the ball for the Mavericks. Trae Young is competing with Donovan Mitchell and Gary Harris for guard minutes. Jaren Jackson has a good chance to be a contender but will need to get considerable playing time for the rl Grizzlies before his sim rating could improve that much. There are certainly other options, and I don't aim to make a prediction about who will WIN, but I do think the Raptors will have a contender and I think SGA has a great shot to be that guy.
6. Charlotte... won't suck?
Okay, okay... Maybe that needs an "as bad as expected" addendum, but I'm not touching it. J Cole has taken over a roster that looks a whole lot like a stinker at face value, but I'm not convinced. Zach Lavine has a skill set that the sim could deem productive even if he doesn't become a unanimous star for the Bulls, John Collins and Jeremy Grant are both likely to see much expanded roles this year, Kevin Knox has a legitimate shot to be the ROY if his summer league play carries over to real life, and there are a handful of solid contributors elsewhere on the roster. I don't mean to say they'll contend for the playoffs, just that if they're aiming for the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft I think they may need to lower their expectations.
The most important factor here is one worth discussing: the players they DO have on the roster are in all likelihood too young and talented to easily move for anything except as packages for better players. If they were gunning for the tanking crown, they'll likely need to move on from Lavine plus one other solid young player primed for decently productive seasons like Collins and Knox. Forgive me for thinking that with no guarantee a higher pick won't bust, it probably isn't worth doing what it takes to make the team worse and move the pick up the board. Until the season starts, there is no way to know for sure and I'll happily admit defeat on this if the lack of defense at every position across the roster brings them down to the point this prediction is wrong.
7. The Boston Celtics are primed to finish at (or near) the top of the East.
The Celtics under Red Auerbach have never really gone away, thanks in large part to the epic contributions of Russell Westbrook, but things were looking bleak for their roster. Trading Tobias Harris for a collection of contributors and depth has looked like a great move, and one that surprisingly enough could be a win-win for both teams involved.
I project the starting line up to look something like Russ/Hood/Roberson/Millsap/Ibaka, which is a unique collection of guys who do a bit of everything at various levels of success surrounding an MVP caliber point guard. The roster has a shot to make waves, and the depth (Portis, Saric, Monroe, Len, Knight, Oubre) adds a lot of versatility to the line up combinations possible.
The East is primed for change. Plenty of last year's playoff teams still have a lot to prove, and a team like the Hawks (with Oladipo, Middleton, and Gasol on top of some excellent youth in Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr., and others) will most likely rocket up the standings from last year's 12th place finish. But the Celtics have a lot of reason to be optimistic, and a whole lot of tradable assets that could help them realize the right mixture of talent to contend for that first place finish in the east.
8. The New York Knicks will not defend their title.
The thing I always love to out for most is what a team prioritizes after a successful year. Some teams see marginal success and retool their roster hoping for that sort of in-organic growth that NBA rosters don't typically have the luxury of utilizing. Others take every opportunity they can to add extra talent at any cost - case in point the Minnesota Timberwolves, who went from years of middling performances while hoarding their assets, to a playoff spot immediately followed by seizing the opportunity to go out and shop for more talent - nestled right up against the hard cap, we'll see how that gamble plays off. But the thing I love to analyze MOST are the championship rosters. The Detroit team that took home D720's inaugural title was considerably weaker than any team that has taken the trophy since, and despite a solid 2-seed finish in 17-18 season, they've done little over the following years to bolster that championship line up despite elite teams like the Supersonics springing up to take their throne (hard to fault not trying to keep up with a roster bearing LeBron/KD/Kawhi though).
Allan Houston had a clear plan to chase a superstar player with his cap space to take his team over the top, but wasn't able to get anybody to sign and instead doubled down on continuity while adding solid contributors with the rest of that money. In spite of that, they have a lot of reasons to re-tool within the calendar year, not the least of which includes the expiring contracts of starting point guard Kemba Walker and starting center DeAndre Jordan. Jordan's cap hit won't change significantly, but keeping Kemba around as he goes into his age 29 season will likely require a significant increase from the $12M/year bargain deal he's played on the last few years. Combine the idea of committing 50-65M to Kemba and DJ with the fact that star center Nikola Jokic plays Jordan's position for a fraction of the price, and it becomes clear that to some extent New York's future is not as stable as a reigning champion would most likely prefer.
Now none of those points lay out a clear argument for the Knicks not winning another championship this coming season - in fact I think with a chance to make some deals the roster could even improve on last year's - but the seeds of doubt are planted with regards to the team's future, and the road forward may require Allan to focus his team building on Jokic's time line as opposed to going all in for another ring.
9. The Portland Trail Blazers got worse and may still win 60 games.
It's impossible for me not to count Klay > Draymond and Cousins > youth as two HUGE blows to the Blazers contending hopes... Klay is the epitome of 3 and D with the talent to offer more, Cousins is a top tier Center when healthy and provides some valuable passing and 3 point shooting that most centers can't replace... But Theodore Duncan has proven in a short time to be an excellent GM and we'll get to see his vision play out in time. Overall, the starting line up lost two valuable shooters and there isn't a clear picture of how to best utilize front court depth like Porzingis/Draymond/Poeltl/Booker/Dedmon without asking Dray to play out of position at the 3 (a failed experiment that some of Dray's previous teams had tried as well). With diminished shooting, no obvious starting SF, and minimal roster security for the future (only a handful of players have deals that extend beyond the 18-19 season), it would stand to reason that the Blazers would struggle and make moves to re-tool for the future but...
CP3 / DeRozan / Dray / Porzingis is an awesome core and if Porzingis can give Portland even 50-60 games of good production, the depth (12 players at or above 58, 14 above 54) and versatility will play a huge part in grinding out another year of big time win totals. Denver struggled through a year without Kawhi and then lost him to the Lakers, New Orleans has a lot of questions to answer, Phoenix had a great year (perhaps unsustainably so) and finished 9 games back anyway. Other teams like the Thunder, Golden State, Los Angeles, and Minnesota have a lot of reason for optimism but still struggled for regular season wins at times. The whole West looks to be improved, and perhaps the new look Blazers will flame out early and be forced to dump talent before the deadline if things aren't going as planned, but as of now, they look like an easy bet to stay in the top 2 seeds of the West, and I'm going to say outright that they'll win at least 60 games.
10. The Golden State Warriors will have the league's best offense... and just may have the juice to win a title.
I'll preface this with the fact that I don't consider the Warriors frenzied summer trading to have made any massive improvements in the roster... no, I'll chalk up any and all potential improvements from their 52-win 6th seed finish last year to the simulation updates that hopefully stand to put Steph Curry back in the upper stratosphere of talent where he belongs. A line up of Steph/Oladipo/Kat/Gobert had a phenomenal shot at jumping to the top of the stacked Western Conference thanks to elite two-way stars, but Steph/McCollum/PG/KAT/Kanter stands to be so dominant on offense that it just might overcome that complete lack of any type of interior defense that their team will roll out this coming year. 4 40% 3 point shooters (capped off with the greatest shooter of all time) and arguably the best post scorer in the league in walking bucket Enes Kanter with miles of un-clogged paint to work his magic in, this team just may be capable of overcoming 4 positions of defensive ineptitude in a way no D720 team has before.
We've seen some squads double down on line ups filled with shooters and minimal defense before, but never to the level that this current GSW squad has. In fact, it has an opportunity to be so potent that I'm not convinced they won't challenge for the title this year. No team in the league has a team capable of marking up that starting 5 with a plus defender, and even the ones that come close will be sacrificing their own ability to score in order to do so. This team may have enough firepower to overcome 4 years of evidence that defense first teams are usually the best. If they fail, it won't be in a "blow it all up" kind of way, but rather in a "We have some questions to answer but we're clearly among the league's upper echelon." kind of way. Lots of good West teams stand in the way of a title, but what if these Warriors can pull it off? Hell, if they beat another team to the punch trying to trade for Jimmy Butler, they just may wield one of the most potent perimeter defense units in the league. There's a whole lot of promise, and plenty of room for growth, and no matter how it plays out they've got no worse than 4/1 odds of being the most exciting team in the league - D720's "must watch" league pass team, if you will. I'll look forward to keeping tabs on Penny Hardaway and his roster throughout the upcoming season.
There are lots of interesting story lines to watch, and about a 100% chance that all of these predictions are wrong in one way or another, but we've got a lot of time left until the season no matter what so here's to another great year of D720 basketball. Be sure to tell me how wrong (or right?) you think my predictions are in the comments, or leave a prediction of your own. If it's good enough I'll steal your prediction for part 2!
I'll attempt to avoid record/standings predictions, since I know we'll probably get plenty of fully fleshed out Standings articles later on (I might even do one). If this goes well and I have material for more, I may knock out another 10 next week.
Without further ado, 10 Crazy Predictions for the 18-19 D720 Season:
1. The Lakers will consider trading one of their big three after a disappointing start to the season.
The only thing holding up the Lakers is the mixture of Kawhi/Klay/Gobert with some added fire power from Lou Williams. With no true point guard to lead their offense, a trio of subpar facilitators*, and very questionable depth, I expect to see the Lakers struggle a bit out the gate and lose some match ups they shouldn't thanks to a bench that can't keep up. Kawhi Leonard returning to MVP levels of play will be crucial for avoiding those struggles, but that's an outcome that remains to be seen.
Regardless of Kawhi's performance, I expect to see Ron Artest(1x Champ) shop Klay or Gobert for a package of two or three good contributors before the D720 New Year if the Lakers take time to figure things out. A team like Phoenix, hoping to recapture the late season magic that propelled them to the finals, may consider targeting a guy like Klay if Gordon Hayward isn't himself right away or if Jamal Murray continues to have an uncertain place in their line up behind Bledsoe... more on Phoenix in a moment...
A deal may not get finalized, after all this is three all-stars in their prime with a little bit of room to maneuver and an easy Free Agency depth haul away from a top 4 finish in a tough Western Conference, but if something goes down I think Klay is the odd-man out with his expiring deal and league-wide coveted skill set.
*(All three average less than 2.5 assists per game for their career and the best AST% among them in a season is Kawhi's 16-17 with 18.9% - which would have been good for just 37th in the league this season, right behind Donovan Mitchell)
2. The Phoenix Suns may bench Gordon Hayward... at least for a stretch of the season.
A team "benching" their star player should probably be huge news, although in this case I don't expect it to turn a ton of heads if this comes true. This prediction stems entirely from the exceptional level of talent available in the projected Celtics starting line up in real life, plus knowing that injury recovery is never as "smooth sailing" as expected. If Gordon Hayward comes out of the gate putting up either a) solid numbers on subpar efficiency, or b) diminished numbers on normal efficiency... it may be in the Sun's best interest to test out deploying Hayward as an uber-6th-man until he returns to form.
OG Anunoby is the sole reason this may be possible, stepping into a probable starting role with the Raptors and showcasing continued excellence on both ends of the floor. With Eric Bledsoe manning the starting point guard job, and Jamal Murray potentially set for a break out at the same position, it wouldn't surprise me if the Suns are forced to get creative to give their best players time on the court. While I don't foresee a trade - if only because questions about WHO should start on a team capable of reaching the Finals are a blessing rather than a curse - a combination of both Murray somehow overtaking Bledsoe for the starting job AND OG failing to make a splash for the Raptors irl may be the only possibility that leads Justin Timberlake to continue to utilize the four man unit of MKG/Hayward/Favors/Drummond in the long term.
3. The Pelicans will trade for Jimmy Butler (or acquire another star player while trying).
It's no secret the Pelicans are looking to add a big name to pair with superstar Anthony Davis - at 25 and on a staggeringly good deal for a player of his caliber, anything short of putting a team around him that can contend for titles is a failure that could force the "Pelicans making the playoffs" experiment into an early grave (though world renowned tanker billy may genuinely welcome that).
One name that fits relatively well and should be available is Orlando Magic star Jimmy Butler - with the main hindrance being that point guard is a bigger positional issue and the current roster has the issue of too many mouths to feed on the wing (Josh Jackson, Avery Bradley, RHJ, Winslow, J. Simmons, and Kennard) that even trading for Butler may not alleviate completely. But - to bastardize one of my favorite sports cliches - the best ability is availability... even when "availability" refers to being a realistic option on the trade market. Butler and Davis would mesh about as well as Davis and Cousins did on the real life Pelicans, with the obvious upside of vastly improving perimeter defense and giving the team a level of line up flexibility that makes a coaches job simultaneously impossibly difficult and simple at the same time. I have to admit that the staggering potential perimeter defense possible from a "big ball" line up of AB/Butler/Jackson/RHJ/AD is enough to make fans of defense salivate a bit, even if it is overwhelmingly unlikely that Billy could bring in Butler without giving up at least one of those players.
Another option could be a blockbuster trade with the 76ers - but again, we'll get to that in a moment.
4. The Philadelphia 76ers will trade one (or both) of their star guards.
The issue with any superstar pairing is that any overlapping skills they have inevitably become less potent. As seen this last season with the rl Rockets having major success with Harden and CP3, two point guards can coexist well and produce excellent results. Other times, you have the rl Warriors trading a guy like Monta Ellis for a productive Center to improve their defense.
Considering that for the 76ers the title of THIRD BEST PLAYER remains largely up for grabs, moving on from the Harden/Lillard duo seems to be more necessity than possibility. Their SF and PF positions yield no notable additions of perimeter defense (Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot may actually be their best and only option to start at SF), and Harden and Lillard both suffer from somewhat extreme cases of "I carry my offense to hard to be a good defender"-itis.
Regardless of the direction implications, there is little left to be seen from this 76ers team. "Blow it up" doesn't have to be the name of the game, housing the reigning MVP for even a season gives enough upside to go all in on contending, but it may be equally time to focus on the future, and in that case BOTH players may wind up with new homes come the end of the season... Philly will need a new GM first no matter what.
5. The Toronto Raptors will have a Rookie of the Year challenger.
Not exactly a bold bet on a team whose GM Brian Scalabrine wheeled and dealed his way to four selections in the first round of the rookie draft, but here's my actual bold prediction which for suspense purposes couldn't be in the main prediction - it won't be 6th overall pick Mohamed Bamba.
Some combination of Markkanen and Kuzma will take up enough of the front court offense that Bamba, not known primarily for his offense anyhow, won't make a big enough scoring impact to challenge for RoY honors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with an unimpeded starting PG role and a likely two-way producer out the gate irl, has a shot to be right up there. Ayton is on a team with a couple of decent centers in Henson/Lopez, and a productive starting PG that will most likely lead the team in points easily, plus his real life counter part will be fighting for touches with Booker and 2nd year JJ (great for real life, bad for ratings boosts). Doncic has his question marks and Kent Bazemore most likely dominating the ball for the Mavericks. Trae Young is competing with Donovan Mitchell and Gary Harris for guard minutes. Jaren Jackson has a good chance to be a contender but will need to get considerable playing time for the rl Grizzlies before his sim rating could improve that much. There are certainly other options, and I don't aim to make a prediction about who will WIN, but I do think the Raptors will have a contender and I think SGA has a great shot to be that guy.
6. Charlotte... won't suck?
Okay, okay... Maybe that needs an "as bad as expected" addendum, but I'm not touching it. J Cole has taken over a roster that looks a whole lot like a stinker at face value, but I'm not convinced. Zach Lavine has a skill set that the sim could deem productive even if he doesn't become a unanimous star for the Bulls, John Collins and Jeremy Grant are both likely to see much expanded roles this year, Kevin Knox has a legitimate shot to be the ROY if his summer league play carries over to real life, and there are a handful of solid contributors elsewhere on the roster. I don't mean to say they'll contend for the playoffs, just that if they're aiming for the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft I think they may need to lower their expectations.
The most important factor here is one worth discussing: the players they DO have on the roster are in all likelihood too young and talented to easily move for anything except as packages for better players. If they were gunning for the tanking crown, they'll likely need to move on from Lavine plus one other solid young player primed for decently productive seasons like Collins and Knox. Forgive me for thinking that with no guarantee a higher pick won't bust, it probably isn't worth doing what it takes to make the team worse and move the pick up the board. Until the season starts, there is no way to know for sure and I'll happily admit defeat on this if the lack of defense at every position across the roster brings them down to the point this prediction is wrong.
7. The Boston Celtics are primed to finish at (or near) the top of the East.
The Celtics under Red Auerbach have never really gone away, thanks in large part to the epic contributions of Russell Westbrook, but things were looking bleak for their roster. Trading Tobias Harris for a collection of contributors and depth has looked like a great move, and one that surprisingly enough could be a win-win for both teams involved.
I project the starting line up to look something like Russ/Hood/Roberson/Millsap/Ibaka, which is a unique collection of guys who do a bit of everything at various levels of success surrounding an MVP caliber point guard. The roster has a shot to make waves, and the depth (Portis, Saric, Monroe, Len, Knight, Oubre) adds a lot of versatility to the line up combinations possible.
The East is primed for change. Plenty of last year's playoff teams still have a lot to prove, and a team like the Hawks (with Oladipo, Middleton, and Gasol on top of some excellent youth in Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr., and others) will most likely rocket up the standings from last year's 12th place finish. But the Celtics have a lot of reason to be optimistic, and a whole lot of tradable assets that could help them realize the right mixture of talent to contend for that first place finish in the east.
8. The New York Knicks will not defend their title.
The thing I always love to out for most is what a team prioritizes after a successful year. Some teams see marginal success and retool their roster hoping for that sort of in-organic growth that NBA rosters don't typically have the luxury of utilizing. Others take every opportunity they can to add extra talent at any cost - case in point the Minnesota Timberwolves, who went from years of middling performances while hoarding their assets, to a playoff spot immediately followed by seizing the opportunity to go out and shop for more talent - nestled right up against the hard cap, we'll see how that gamble plays off. But the thing I love to analyze MOST are the championship rosters. The Detroit team that took home D720's inaugural title was considerably weaker than any team that has taken the trophy since, and despite a solid 2-seed finish in 17-18 season, they've done little over the following years to bolster that championship line up despite elite teams like the Supersonics springing up to take their throne (hard to fault not trying to keep up with a roster bearing LeBron/KD/Kawhi though).
Allan Houston had a clear plan to chase a superstar player with his cap space to take his team over the top, but wasn't able to get anybody to sign and instead doubled down on continuity while adding solid contributors with the rest of that money. In spite of that, they have a lot of reasons to re-tool within the calendar year, not the least of which includes the expiring contracts of starting point guard Kemba Walker and starting center DeAndre Jordan. Jordan's cap hit won't change significantly, but keeping Kemba around as he goes into his age 29 season will likely require a significant increase from the $12M/year bargain deal he's played on the last few years. Combine the idea of committing 50-65M to Kemba and DJ with the fact that star center Nikola Jokic plays Jordan's position for a fraction of the price, and it becomes clear that to some extent New York's future is not as stable as a reigning champion would most likely prefer.
Now none of those points lay out a clear argument for the Knicks not winning another championship this coming season - in fact I think with a chance to make some deals the roster could even improve on last year's - but the seeds of doubt are planted with regards to the team's future, and the road forward may require Allan to focus his team building on Jokic's time line as opposed to going all in for another ring.
9. The Portland Trail Blazers got worse and may still win 60 games.
It's impossible for me not to count Klay > Draymond and Cousins > youth as two HUGE blows to the Blazers contending hopes... Klay is the epitome of 3 and D with the talent to offer more, Cousins is a top tier Center when healthy and provides some valuable passing and 3 point shooting that most centers can't replace... But Theodore Duncan has proven in a short time to be an excellent GM and we'll get to see his vision play out in time. Overall, the starting line up lost two valuable shooters and there isn't a clear picture of how to best utilize front court depth like Porzingis/Draymond/Poeltl/Booker/Dedmon without asking Dray to play out of position at the 3 (a failed experiment that some of Dray's previous teams had tried as well). With diminished shooting, no obvious starting SF, and minimal roster security for the future (only a handful of players have deals that extend beyond the 18-19 season), it would stand to reason that the Blazers would struggle and make moves to re-tool for the future but...
CP3 / DeRozan / Dray / Porzingis is an awesome core and if Porzingis can give Portland even 50-60 games of good production, the depth (12 players at or above 58, 14 above 54) and versatility will play a huge part in grinding out another year of big time win totals. Denver struggled through a year without Kawhi and then lost him to the Lakers, New Orleans has a lot of questions to answer, Phoenix had a great year (perhaps unsustainably so) and finished 9 games back anyway. Other teams like the Thunder, Golden State, Los Angeles, and Minnesota have a lot of reason for optimism but still struggled for regular season wins at times. The whole West looks to be improved, and perhaps the new look Blazers will flame out early and be forced to dump talent before the deadline if things aren't going as planned, but as of now, they look like an easy bet to stay in the top 2 seeds of the West, and I'm going to say outright that they'll win at least 60 games.
10. The Golden State Warriors will have the league's best offense... and just may have the juice to win a title.
I'll preface this with the fact that I don't consider the Warriors frenzied summer trading to have made any massive improvements in the roster... no, I'll chalk up any and all potential improvements from their 52-win 6th seed finish last year to the simulation updates that hopefully stand to put Steph Curry back in the upper stratosphere of talent where he belongs. A line up of Steph/Oladipo/Kat/Gobert had a phenomenal shot at jumping to the top of the stacked Western Conference thanks to elite two-way stars, but Steph/McCollum/PG/KAT/Kanter stands to be so dominant on offense that it just might overcome that complete lack of any type of interior defense that their team will roll out this coming year. 4 40% 3 point shooters (capped off with the greatest shooter of all time) and arguably the best post scorer in the league in walking bucket Enes Kanter with miles of un-clogged paint to work his magic in, this team just may be capable of overcoming 4 positions of defensive ineptitude in a way no D720 team has before.
We've seen some squads double down on line ups filled with shooters and minimal defense before, but never to the level that this current GSW squad has. In fact, it has an opportunity to be so potent that I'm not convinced they won't challenge for the title this year. No team in the league has a team capable of marking up that starting 5 with a plus defender, and even the ones that come close will be sacrificing their own ability to score in order to do so. This team may have enough firepower to overcome 4 years of evidence that defense first teams are usually the best. If they fail, it won't be in a "blow it all up" kind of way, but rather in a "We have some questions to answer but we're clearly among the league's upper echelon." kind of way. Lots of good West teams stand in the way of a title, but what if these Warriors can pull it off? Hell, if they beat another team to the punch trying to trade for Jimmy Butler, they just may wield one of the most potent perimeter defense units in the league. There's a whole lot of promise, and plenty of room for growth, and no matter how it plays out they've got no worse than 4/1 odds of being the most exciting team in the league - D720's "must watch" league pass team, if you will. I'll look forward to keeping tabs on Penny Hardaway and his roster throughout the upcoming season.
There are lots of interesting story lines to watch, and about a 100% chance that all of these predictions are wrong in one way or another, but we've got a lot of time left until the season no matter what so here's to another great year of D720 basketball. Be sure to tell me how wrong (or right?) you think my predictions are in the comments, or leave a prediction of your own. If it's good enough I'll steal your prediction for part 2!
Chicago Bulls
LA Lakers
Portland Trail Blazers