Unprotected Draft Picks!

[Jackie Kong]

UNPROTECTED PICKS ON DEMAND!

@xavier0717 would probably tell you that draft picks are overrated but their value should now be higher than ever. Why? I will explain.

These were the odds in 2018:

Seed 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 .250 .215 .178 .357 – – – – – – – – – –
2 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123 – – – – – – – – –
3 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040 – – – – – – – –
4 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012 – – – – – – –
5 .088 .097 .107 – .261 .360 .084 .004 – – – – – –
6 .063 .071 .081 – – .439 .305 .040 .001 – – – – –
7 .043 .049 .058 – – – .599 .232 .018 .000 – – – –
8 .028 .033 .039 – – – – .724 .168 .008 .000 – – –
9 .017 .020 .024 – – – – – .813 .122 .004 .000 – –
10 .011 .013 .016 – – – – – – .870 .089 .002 .000 –
11 .008 .009 .012 – – – – – – – .907 .063 .001 .000
12 .007 .008 .010 – – – – – – – – .935 .039 .000
13 .006 .007 .009 – – – – – – – – – .960 .018
14 .005 .006 .007 – – – – – – – – – – .982

These are the odds now:

Seed 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 .140 .134 .127 .120 .479 – – – – – – – – –
2 .140 .134 .127 .120 .278 .200 – – – – – – – –
3 .140 .134 .127 .120 .148 .260 .070 – – – – – – –
4 .125 .122 .119 .115 .072 .257 .167 .022 – – – – – –
5 .105 .105 .106 .105 .022 .196 .267 .087 .006 – – – – –
6 .090 .092 .094 .096 – .086 .298 .206 .037 .001 – – – –
7 .075 .078 .081 .085 – – .197 .341 .129 .013 .000 – – –
8 .060 .063 .067 .072 – – – .345 .321 .067 .004 .000 – –
9 .045 .048 .052 .057 – – – – .507 .259 .030 .001 .000 –
10 .030 .033 .036 .040 – – – – – .659 .190 .012 .000 .000
11 .020 .022 .024 .028 – – – – – – .776 .126 .004 .000
12 .015 .017 .019 .021 – – – – – – – .861 .067 .001
13 .010 .011 .012 .014 – – – – – – – – .929 .023
14 .005 .006 .006 .007 – – – – – – – – – .976

So, before there was a 72.4% chance that the number 1 pick would go to the top 4. Now, it is 54.5% which is still pretty high but you got 17.9% more odds and a 64.9% increment for the other 10 picks and that is really something.

In particular, picks in the 8-12 range now have more than double odds for that #1 pick and a top 4 pick in general and that's where you would expect a decent unprotected 1st round pick to finish when making a trade. Obviously, there are exceptions and unprotected picks that end up much higher but in most cases those top places are reserved for tankers that have an actual incentive to finish last. Brian Scalabrine knows what I am talking about.

And yeah, yeah; billy will tell you that as the league evolves rules make it harder for GMs to tank but the truth is tankers will always find a legal way to suck whether you like it or not.

In addition to this, 2021 and 2022 1sts are particularly tasty if you go by the rumours that the "One and Done" rule might be gone by then possibly combining 2 classes of top talents into 1.

So, you heard it here first. If you are one of those borderline Playoffs teams you might want to think twice before giving away an unprotected 1st. I heard Duke's big 3 is looking good. Zion has been on the Kong diet so you know what is coming!

[Jackie Kong]

Adding to the small article, if you own 8th, 9th and 10th pick before the lottery now you have almost as much chances as getting that #1 pick as the last team in standings.

In that case where you have 8th, 9th and 10th your odds at #1 went from 5.6% to 13.5%. So yes, it is always more likely for someone else to get it; 86.5% in this case but there is double the hope now.

The new changes I believe also make things more interesting for swap options.

[Brian Scalabrine]

Yeah, this is some interesting shit to me. Sure wish I had my 2020 pick (and LeVert for that matter).

One way I'm looking at this as a bottom tier team--even though there's less of an inventive to be the very worst team, if you're close, you better tank it up because the difference between 1 and 2 is the greatest difference between ANY two lottery spots imo because it's the difference between a 47ish % chance at falling to five versus splitting those odds between five and six. You can kinda live with a horrible season for pick five, but it really gets dicey if you're falling to six for it.

Best strategy is to have a good spread--MIL and CHO look in good shape with this model. Me? Ehhhhhhhh.

But, I'd take my contracts vs talent over theirs.

I also think this model incentives slowly building talent--I could be okay with being the eighth worst team that looks like they have a future and getting those odds at a great pick if I already have a promising core.

[Jackie Kong]

And to add even more to what I said,

as an example, the 8th pick now has 26.2% chances of jumping to the top 4 compared to the 10% that it had last year. I think that is a considerable upgrade.
That 10% was to jump to the top 3 though (still top 4, lol). That's because this season the last team could fall as low as 5th with almost half chances of that happening! Last season it was almost one third of falling as low as 4th. It almost makes you feel for a really bad team that might need that high pick, LOL.

[Jackie Kong]

Stay tuned for next week episode "The reason why Billy left the Pelicans".

If it doesn't up it is because Billy censored it. Not because I am lazy.

[Jackie Kong]

Lol. I am just messing around. I do have my theory though. It starts with d, ends with g and has raftin in the middle.

[Stuff The Magic Dragon]

oof

[Paul Pierce]

Nov 8, 2018 23:06:48 GMT -5 Stuff The Magic Dragon said:

oof

you're pick that I have in 2021 looks a little tastier now but the '19 magic first looks like shit. You won 47 games in the preseason :/

[Brian Scalabrine]

Nov 9, 2018 15:02:14 GMT -5 Paul Pierce said:

Nov 8, 2018 23:06:48 GMT -5 Stuff The Magic Dragon said:

oof

you're pick that I have in 2021 looks a little tastier now but the '19 magic first looks like shit. You won 47 games in the preseason :/

Good thing I traded that while it was still valuable

[Stuff The Magic Dragon]

Nov 9, 2018 15:02:14 GMT -5 Paul Pierce said:

Nov 8, 2018 23:06:48 GMT -5 Stuff The Magic Dragon said:

oof

your pick that I have in 2021 looks a little tastier now but the '19 magic first looks like shit. You won 47 games in the preseason :/

we were a playoff team last year too during the preseason, I don't have that high of an expectation coming this year. I think it's '22 that will be loaded with great prospects

[Penny Hardaway]

Nov 9, 2018 19:13:16 GMT -5 Stuff The Magic Dragon said:

Nov 9, 2018 15:02:14 GMT -5 Paul Pierce said:

your pick that I have in 2021 looks a little tastier now but the '19 magic first looks like shit. You won 47 games in the preseason :/

we were a playoff team last year too during the preseason, I don't have that high of an expectation coming this year. I think it's '22 that will be loaded with great prospects

My 2022 firat is available

[Brian Scalabrine]

Nov 22, 2018 6:00:01 GMT -5 Penny Hardaway said:

Nov 9, 2018 19:13:16 GMT -5 Stuff The Magic Dragon said:

we were a playoff team last year too during the preseason, I don't have that high of an expectation coming this year. I think it's '22 that will be loaded with great prospects

My 2022 firat is available

Looks like you already traded it

[Penny Hardaway]

Nov 22, 2018 7:29:16 GMT -5 Brian Scalabrine said:

Nov 22, 2018 6:00:01 GMT -5 Penny Hardaway said:

My 2022 firat is available

Looks like you already traded it

Thought swap , same as my 2021

[Jackie Kong]

In my original post I think I didn't talk about how everything is the same now for the bottom 3 in terms of odds for a top 4 pick.

That's a significant change compared to how it used to work in the past.

[Jackie Kong]

Seed T-3 T-8 T-L T3%DROP T3ACC%DROP T8%DROP T8ACC%DROP
1 .401 1 1
2 .401 1 1 .0 .0 .0 .0
3 .401 1 1 .0 .0 .0 .0
4 .366 1 1 -.035 -.035 .0 .0
5 .316 .994 1 -.05 -.085 -.006 -.006
6 .276 .962 1 -.04 -.125 -.032 -.038
7 .234 .858 1 -.042 -.167 -.104 -.142
8 .190 .608 1 -.044 -.211 -.250 -.392
9 .145 .203 1 -.045 -.256 -.405 -.797
10 .099 .139 1 -.046 -.302 -.064 -.861
11 .066 .094 1 -.033 -.335 -.045 -.906
12 .051 .071 1 -.015 -.350 -.023 -.929
13 .033 .051 1 -.018 -.368 -.020 -.949
14 .017 .024 1 -.016 -.384 -.027 -.976

^ Odds to match Draft Picks available protections.

To note is the big jump from 9th to 8th for top 8 protection. This is because 9th place can drop to 9th or worse meaning no 8th pick possibility compared to 8th place.

%DROP - % drop compared to next best seed.

ACC%DROP - % drop compared to #1 seed.