NBA Western Conference First Round Predictions.

[Shaq O'Neal]

1.GSW v 8.LAC



Injuries

GSW-Damian Jones(out for the playoffs)

LAC-No Injuries



Stats Comparision



Category GSW LAC Advantage

OFFRTG 114.9 112.3 GSW

DEFRTG 108.5 110.3 GSW

NETRTG 6.4 1.9 GSW

REB% 50.5 50.3 GSW

AST% 66.8 61.9 GSW

TOV% 13.9 13.7 LAC

TS% 59.6 57.9 GSW



Advantage-GSW in terms of stats comparison



Note-The stats for LAC are the stats post ASB in order to only have stats post Tobias Harris trade which effectively gives accurate stats of the current LAC roster.



Comparison of Starting Lineups



GSW LAC Advantage

Curry SGA GSW

Klay Bev GSW

KD Shamet GSW

Dray Gallo GSW

Cousins Zubac GSW



Dray vs Gallo is a close call due to Dray having a down year and Gallo having a career year but considering the fit of GSW and the playoffs I choose Dray over Gallo



Advantage-GSW



Playoff Experience

GSW LAC

677 games 148 games



Advantage-GSW

This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.



Summary

GSW outmatches LAC in each and every Category.



GSW have better team stats,more star power,more playoff experience and are also the two time defending champions.



LAC have punched above their weight in the regular season even after trading away their best player(Tobias Harris).However,they lack star power and experience and basically have no shot at beating GSW in a 7-game series.



Prediction-GSW in 4

[Shaq O'Neal]

2.DEN v 7.SAS
Injuries
DEN-MPJ(out for the season)
SAS-Dejounte Murray(out for the season),Dante Cunningham(day to day)

Stats Comparison

Category DEN SAS Advantage
OFFRTG 112.1 112.2 SAS
DEFRTG 108 110.5 DEN
NETRTG 4.1 1.7 DEN
REB% 52.4 50.1 DEN
AST% 65.3 58 DEN
TOV% 13.6 12.2 SAS
TS% 55.8 57.2 SAS

Advantage-DEN in terms of stats comparison


Comparison of Starting Lineups

DEN SAS Advantage
Jamal White DEN
Harris DeRozan SAS
Barton Forbes Even
Millsap Aldridge SAS
Jokic Poetl DEN


Advantage-Both teams have equal firepower in terms of starters with the Nuggets having the best player on the court in Jokic but his lack of playoff experience worries me.On the other hand,the Spurs have a great duo in DeRozan and Aldridge with them being surrounded by good role players.However,DeRozan hasn’t been a great playoff performer with the Raptors in previous seasons but lets see if he manages to turn it around with the Spurs who have one of the greatest coaches in Pop.

Depth
Advantage-DEN by a small margin due to the fact that when their starters got injured,they still managed to stay at the top of the West with players like Monte Morris,Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig contributing.

However,SAS have some good bench players in Bertans,Belinelli and Gay with Belinelli and Bertans capable of shooting the lights out.

Playoff Experience
DEN SAS
123 games 331 games

Advantage-SAS
This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.

Coach
DEN SAS
Mike Malone Pop

Advantage-SAS

Malone has done a great job in the regular season and imo deserves to be COTY runner up but he has never coached a playoff game whereas Pop has won 5 rings and has 23 playoff seasons and in the process has coached 277 playoff games.


Prediction-SAS in 6

While DEN had a great regular season,their lack of playoff experience will hurt them .Also Malone is bound to get outcoached by Pop.
This series can go to a game 7 due to both teams not being great travellers.
If this series goes to a game 7 then it can go either ways as DEN has been great at home while Spurs struggles on the road but I doubt if Nuggets can close out a game 7.
Anyways my money is on the Spurs but expect a close contest.

[Theodore Duncan]

Spurs is really tough at home. If they can steal one game in Denver, which is not too hard to believe, Spurs in 6 is also my prediction.

Jokic is amazing but Spurs have good big men to defend him. And if they focus shutting down the passing and force him to be scorer, I'm not sure if Joker has that in him yet. Denver will be tough to beat in coming years but this year I think lack of experience will show

[Shaq O'Neal]

Apr 12, 2019 7:07:53 GMT -5 Theodore Duncan said:

Spurs is really tough at home. If they can steal one game in Denver, which is not too hard to believe, Spurs in 6 is also my prediction.

Jokic is amazing but Spurs have good big men to defend him. And if they focus shutting down the passing and force him to be scorer, I'm not sure if Joker has that in him yet. Denver will be tough to beat in coming years but this year I think lack of experience will show

Actually Denver has been great at home too but i agree with everything you have said

[Shaq O'Neal]

Shit didnt post it properly just editing it really quickly

[Shaq O'Neal]

3.POR v 6.OKC
Injuries
POR-Nurkic(out for the season)
OKC-Roberson(out for the season),

Stats Comparison

Category POR OKC Advantage
OFFRTG 110.9 109.8 POR
DEFRTG 113.4 106.4 OKC
NETRTG -2.5 3.4 OKC
REB% 51.3 50.9 POR
AST% 53.7 54.8 OKC
TOV% 14.9 13.4 OKC
EFG% 53.6 51.4 POR
Note-The POR stats are basically off the court stats for Nurkic as it gives a somewhat accurate representation of how POR plays when Nurkic is not on the floor.However,it is not totally accurate because this also factors in the games Nurkic was playing but the second unit was on the court which slightly slowers POR’s stats.
Also EFG% was used in place of TS% because I didn’t find TS% when Nurkic is off the court.
Advantage-OKC in terms of stats comparison


Comparison of Starting Lineups

POR OKC Advantage
Dame Russ Even
CJ Ferguson POR
Harkless PG13 OKC
Aminu Grant OKC
Kanter Adams OKC


Advantage-OKC but not by a lot.Grant v Aminu was a tough decision but I went with Grant due to better shooting stats.Dame v Russ is a very important matchup as the series is largely dependent on who performs better.If Dame chokes like last year ,POR have no chance against OKC.Russ needs to be efficient and not shoot OKC out of the game.

Depth
Advantage-POR
Seth ,Hood and Collins seem like great bench players to me whereas I don’t really believe in OKC’s bench.Schroder is good but unpredictable and Noel has been decent too but I believe POR has the better bench.


Playoff Experience
POR OKC
205 games 321 games

Advantage-OKC
This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.

Prediction-OKC in 6
POR will be hurt by the loss of Nurkic and while Kanter is a double-double machine,he is horrendous defensively.OKC’s over reliance on Russ and PG13 might hurt them but those 2 players hold the key to them winning the series.Russ should find it easy against the defensively weak backcourt of Dame and CJ but should be in control and not take an insane amount of shots.If PG13 becomes MVPG again then POR has no chance against OKC.Lets hope OKC doesn’t become inconsistent and choke this series away.

[Doc Rivers]

Denver isn't great on the road, going up against a great coach with a team that has limited playoff experience. 2/3 of the best players in the series are on the Spurs. Jakob will have to go to work on the boards against Nikola but if he does I think the Spurs can win the series and definitely steal a game on the road.

[Doc Rivers]

GSW > LAC in 5
DEN < SAS in 7
POR < OKC in 6
HOU > UTA in 5

[Doc Rivers]

MIL > DET in 6
TOR > ORL in 4
PHI > BKN in 7
BOS < IND in 7

[Brian Scalabrine]

One interesting thing I've been thinking about for POR v OKC... POR has so many more guys that can light it up, and OKC is net negative on the season when PG is off the floor even when Russ is still on the court.

If PG13 goes cold for a couple games, I say advantage Portland--and our two best healthy wing defenders both can switch onto him. Obviously I'm a blazers fan, but I go POR in 7.

[Ben Wallace]

MIL over DET in 4
BOS over IND in 7
PHI over BKN in 5
TOR over ORL in 5

GSW over LAC in 4
HOU over UTA in 6
OKC over POR in 6
DEN over SAS in 7

[Nino Brown]

MIL over DET in 4
BOS over IND in 6
PHI over BKN in 5
TOR over ORL in 4

GSW over LAC in 4
HOU over UTA in 6
OKC over POR in 6
DEN over SAS in 5

[Shaq O'Neal]

4.HOU v 5.UTA

Injuries
HOU-No major injuries
UTA-Exum(out for the season),

Stats Comparison

Category HOU UTA Advantage
OFFRTG 114.8 110.2 HOU
DEFRTG 110.1 105.2 UTA
NETRTG 4.7 5.0 UTA
REB% 48.1 52.2 UTA
AST% 54.1 64.4 UTA
TOV% 13.4 14.9 HOU
TS% 58.1 57.2 HOU
Advantage-UTA but not by a lot

Comparison of Starting Lineups

HOU UTA Advantage
CP3 Rubio HOU
Harden Mitchell HOU
Gordon Ingles UTA
Tucker Favors UTA
Capela Gobert UTA
Advantage-UTA but Ingles v Gordon was close but Ingles has been the better shooter and the better defender and we have to keep in mind what he did to Playoff P last season.
Tucker v Favors was another close one and while Favors is the better player,Tucker fits into D’Antoni’s system perfectly while hitting those corner threes and defending well.

Playoff Experience
HOU UTA
478 games 382 games

Advantage-HOU
This total is the sum of playoff games played by the 10 players with the most mpg on either roster.
Experience doesn’t seem to be a problem for either team as the Rockets were just a game away from defeating GSW and while they don’t have Ariza and Mbah a Moute ,they still have plenty of experience.
The Jazz starters had really less playoff experience last year but they still managed to defeat OKC with a rookie leading the way.Ingles really stepped up that series too despite going up against a way more experienced PG13
Prediction-HOU in 7
I believe that this will be the closest series with the result going either way.
I had Utah as a dark horse candidate for the WCF but its unfortunate that they meet HOU in the first round and will most probably meet GSW in the second round.
Utah is a well coached team composed of great players with an elite defence.They have arguably the best rim protector in the league in Gobert.Last year,Utah made some noise in the playoffs and I expect them to fight well this year too.

Houston is one of the best offensive teams this season.Hopefully Harden can perform like he has been in the regular seasons instead of having a meltdown like he did in Game 6 against the Spurs in 2017.Houston better hope CP3 stays healthy otherwise it can end up costing them a lot.

This matchup is between the league’s 2nd best offense and the 2nd best defence and it is going to be a close contest but I have Houston winning it with homecourt in game 7 being a vital factor in this prediction.

[Pete Maravich]

GSW over LAC in 4

DEN over SAS in 4

OKC over POR in 7

UTA over HOU in 7

MIL over DET in 4

TOR over ORL in 4

PHI over BKN in 4

BOS over IND in 6

[Yeezy]

No chance SAS beat DEN!! You guys trippin

[Steve Jobs]

Apr 12, 2019 17:14:27 GMT -5 Yeezy said:

No chance SAS beat DEN!! You guys trippin

We’ll see... not predicting it, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Someone will knock out Denver due to their inexperience... stands to reason it might be the team with a ton of experience.

[Pete Maravich]

OKC in the 2nd round?

[Penny Hardaway]

Apr 12, 2019 17:14:27 GMT -5 Yeezy said:

No chance SAS beat DEN!! You guys trippin

Ya i think Den is too deep for SAS regardless of coaching, but I think it will go 6 or 7 so they have a chance just dont think they will.

[Scott Pilgrim]

Thoughts on my predictions?

[Steve Jobs]

Apr 12, 2019 23:10:09 GMT -5 Scott Pilgrim said:

Thoughts on my predictions?

Way too high on Houston, but otherwise seems reasonable. I think OKC has a great chance to make it to the WCF and the Warriors are still pretty much locks for a title unless someone gets lucky.

But we’ll see. I hope it isn’t the rockets, but any finals that isn’t CLE/GSW is going to be a refreshing outcome.

[Stuff The Magic Dragon]

Y'all forgetting James Harden in the playoffs

[Scott Pilgrim]

Apr 12, 2019 23:16:47 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

Way too high on Houston, but otherwise seems reasonable. I think OKC has a great chance to make it to the WCF and the Warriors are still pretty much locks for a title unless someone gets lucky.

But we’ll see. I hope it isn’t the rockets, but any finals that isn’t CLE/GSW is going to be a refreshing outcome.

Yeah definitely refreshing to see a new East team in the finals.

I dunno, I'm just banking on an upset against the warriors, though it has a slim chance of happening if they buckle down on defence.
I mean they were a Chris Paul injury away from making the finals, and even then, if they made some of the 3 pointers in game 7, we could be looking back on a Rockets championship in 2018. 

It's good they're facing the Warriors early in the 2nd round though, especially after that Curry ankle injury. James Harden and Chris Paul normally deteriorate as the play-offs go on, in terms of play style and health.

Denver is a big question, alongside that Thunder team... I wouldn't know who to pick in that situation, but I just edged towards Nuggets taking it in game 7, homecourt being the deciding factor.

[Stuff The Magic Dragon]

if the Rockets is to reach the WCF or the NBA Finals, it won't be James Harden carrying them. CP3 took them to the WCF last year.

[Penny Hardaway]

If Houston can't beat the Warriors this year they wont ever be able too assuming the warriors stay the same with KD , klay, etc.

But if they do beat the warriors I think they win it all this year

[Doc Rivers]

Houston's window for a championship is closed but not because of Golden State, other teams will move past them.

[Shaq O'Neal]

Claiming 2k billy bucks