Jazz - Pelicans

[billy]

^{Utah Jazz}
SF 61 Shabazz Muhammad $1,971,960 $2,056,920 $3,046,299 $4,237,401

^{New Orleans Pelicans}
GF 54 Robert Covington $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,015,696 $1,087,745
2018 NOP 1st

[billy]

I'm not going to lie. I'm not an elite basketball talent evaluator, I just hope to be.

I love shabazz, I think shabazz is worth this much, but I am worried about trading about my pick. If Oladipo/Gobert/Okafor(or KAT) don't turn out to be great, then my team is going to struggle to win 20 games that year. Do all 3 of them turn out, along with shabazz giving me a decent starting 5 by 2018? I don't know, and then they also have to get a ratings increase... all of this sounds like I'm talking myself out of this, and I do actually worry about this trade.

But anyone who knows me knows that shabazz makes my dick harder than anyone but whiteside. so i have to do it.

I accept.

[Colin Loftin]

I think that it's definitely possible that BK regrets this trade if, like you said, your team doesn't turn the corner in the next couple of years. However, I think it's fair value for Shabazz, if the pick ends up in the mid 1st round. You've acknowledged the risk associated with it possibly being higher, and even if it is higher, there's still no certainty with a draft pick. I accept.

[Keith Van Horn]

I decline. Shabazz is not worth a 2018 first from currently the worst team in the league, no matter how promising the roster is.

Billy, your whole team could not pan out, and you'll have given away a lottery pick for Shabazz. Not going to sign off on this.

[billy]

Sept 3, 2015 23:51:20 GMT -5 Keith Van Horn said:

I decline. Shabazz is not worth a 2018 first from currently the worst team in the league, no matter how promising the roster is.

Billy, your whole team could not pan out, and you'll have given away a lottery pick for Shabazz. Not going to sign off on this.

Whats wrong with trading a lottery pick for Shabazz?

[Steve Jobs]

Sept 3, 2015 23:51:20 GMT -5 Keith Van Horn said:

I decline. Shabazz is not worth a 2018 first from currently the worst team in the league, no matter how promising the roster is.

Billy, your whole team could not pan out, and you'll have given away a lottery pick for Shabazz. Not going to sign off on this.

I'm not especially inclined to believe a team that will be starting the next 3 years with a core of Jrue Holiday, Oladipo, Rudy Gobert, Okafor/KAT, and Shabazz Muhammad is a lock for a lottery pick come 2018.  Lots of win now teams that don't end up locking up good talent long term will be either unintentionally bad or starting to tank in the coming years, and even a historically bad team can't stay bad forever, especially not with like 14 high-upside players.  Even if he ends up with a 20% success rate at picking players that breakout in that 2015-2018 span, that still to me looks like a team with 6-10 really solid players and a few stars among them, which is a team build that has seen success for a lot of this year's playoff-bound teams.  Long story short: saying this is bad because Shabazz isn't worth a lottery pick is one thing, but saying that Shabazz isn't worth it AND you think this Pelicans team will be bad enough to land in the lottery in the 2018 draft seems like a stretch.  Consider the fact that after Okafor, even if the Pelicans don't noticeably improve for 2015-16, they'll get another lottery pick to add to the stable of young talent.  At that point, it's hard to imagine the team can't rise up to be competitive by 16-17 or 17-18.

In my opinion, the trade is pretty balanced.  It could end up hurting Billy, but there's also a high chance that it ends up benefitting him in the long run.  I'm really high on Shabazz and it looks like he'll stand as the Wolves future at SG once he develops a bit more.  Certainly, no matter how I look at it, I don't see this as a move so unbalanced and hurtful towards the future of the Pelicans that I feel it's necessary to reject it.  It's an educated and relatively minimal risk with the potential for a good reward.  I accept.

[Kylo Ren]

I accept because I am not a huge Shabazz fan, my team needs to tank, Billy won't leave me alone about this deal, and NOP's 2018 1st could be promising.

[billy]

Sept 4, 2015 0:41:49 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

Sept 3, 2015 23:51:20 GMT -5 Keith Van Horn said:

I decline. Shabazz is not worth a 2018 first from currently the worst team in the league, no matter how promising the roster is.

Billy, your whole team could not pan out, and you'll have given away a lottery pick for Shabazz. Not going to sign off on this.

I'm not especially inclined to believe a team that will be starting the next 3 years with a core of Jrue Holiday, Oladipo, Rudy Gobert, Okafor/KAT, and Shabazz Muhammad is a lock for a lottery pick come 2018.  Lots of win now teams that don't end up locking up good talent long term will be either unintentionally bad or starting to tank in the coming years, and even a historically bad team can't stay bad forever, especially not with like 14 high-upside players.  Even if he ends up with a 20% success rate at picking players that breakout in that 2015-2018 span, that still to me looks like a team with 6-10 really solid players and a few stars among them, which is a team build that has seen success for a lot of this year's playoff-bound teams.  Long story short: saying this is bad because Shabazz isn't worth a lottery pick is one thing, but saying that Shabazz isn't worth it AND you think this Pelicans team will be bad enough to land in the lottery in the 2018 draft seems like a stretch.  Consider the fact that after Okafor, even if the Pelicans don't noticeably improve for 2015-16, they'll get another lottery pick to add to the stable of young talent.  At that point, it's hard to imagine the team can't rise up to be competitive by 16-17 or 17-18.

In my opinion, the trade is pretty balanced.  It could end up hurting Billy, but there's also a high chance that it ends up benefitting him in the long run.  I'm really high on Shabazz and it looks like he'll stand as the Wolves future at SG once he develops a bit more.  Certainly, no matter how I look at it, I don't see this as a move so unbalanced and hurtful towards the future of the Pelicans that I feel it's necessary to reject it.  It's an educated and relatively minimal risk with the potential for a good reward.  I accept.

FTR he is the wolves future SF :D

[billy]

Reggie Miller
Blake Bowman
John Stockton

[Steve Jobs]

Sept 4, 2015 0:50:34 GMT -5 billy said:

Sept 4, 2015 0:41:49 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

I'm not especially inclined to believe a team that will be starting the next 3 years with a core of Jrue Holiday, Oladipo, Rudy Gobert, Okafor/KAT, and Shabazz Muhammad is a lock for a lottery pick come 2018.  Lots of win now teams that don't end up locking up good talent long term will be either unintentionally bad or starting to tank in the coming years, and even a historically bad team can't stay bad forever, especially not with like 14 high-upside players.  Even if he ends up with a 20% success rate at picking players that breakout in that 2015-2018 span, that still to me looks like a team with 6-10 really solid players and a few stars among them, which is a team build that has seen success for a lot of this year's playoff-bound teams.  Long story short: saying this is bad because Shabazz isn't worth a lottery pick is one thing, but saying that Shabazz isn't worth it AND you think this Pelicans team will be bad enough to land in the lottery in the 2018 draft seems like a stretch.  Consider the fact that after Okafor, even if the Pelicans don't noticeably improve for 2015-16, they'll get another lottery pick to add to the stable of young talent.  At that point, it's hard to imagine the team can't rise up to be competitive by 16-17 or 17-18.

In my opinion, the trade is pretty balanced.  It could end up hurting Billy, but there's also a high chance that it ends up benefitting him in the long run.  I'm really high on Shabazz and it looks like he'll stand as the Wolves future at SG once he develops a bit more.  Certainly, no matter how I look at it, I don't see this as a move so unbalanced and hurtful towards the future of the Pelicans that I feel it's necessary to reject it.  It's an educated and relatively minimal risk with the potential for a good reward.  I accept.

FTR he is the wolves future SF :D

None of us will know what that Wolves team will/should look like long term until some more time passes, but unless Lavine really falls flat or Rubio finds a jumpshot I think it's morely like that they roll out something more like Lavine/Muhammad/Wiggins/KAT/Dieng long term.  

Disregarding that prediction for a second, if you look at the minutes/position distribution for the 14-15 season: Wiggins played 35/54/11 percent of his minutes at SG/SF/PF respectively; Muhammad played 9/80/11 percent of his minutes at PG/SG/SF respectively.  The Wolves have too many actual PF/Cs to try to make Wiggins a PF, and too many true guards to make Wiggins a SG... so I think Wiggins sticks at SF and Muhammad, who actually has a good 3 ball, sticks at SG.  Obviously I could be wrong but that seems most likely to me.

[Blake Bowman]

I'll accept, I like Bazz. I think a first is good for him though.

[Reggie Miller]

I accept... Shabazz is improving more and more.. He is on rookie contract..

[John Stockton]

Trade passed.

[billy]

Sept 4, 2015 1:11:43 GMT -5 Steve Jobs said:

Sept 4, 2015 0:50:34 GMT -5 billy said:

FTR he is the wolves future SF :D

None of us will know what that Wolves team will/should look like long term until some more time passes, but unless Lavine really falls flat or Rubio finds a jumpshot I think it's morely like that they roll out something more like Lavine/Muhammad/Wiggins/KAT/Dieng long term.  

Disregarding that prediction for a second, if you look at the minutes/position distribution for the 14-15 season: Wiggins played 35/54/11 percent of his minutes at SG/SF/PF respectively; Muhammad played 9/80/11 percent of his minutes at PG/SG/SF respectively.  The Wolves have too many actual PF/Cs to try to make Wiggins a PF, and too many true guards to make Wiggins a SG... so I think Wiggins sticks at SF and Muhammad, who actually has a good 3 ball, sticks at SG.  Obviously I could be wrong but that seems most likely to me.

I remember reading where their coach said that they were going to play shabazz at the 3 to get him playing time because wiggins needed to dominate the ball at the 2.

[Reggie Miller]

should I update the roster? billy ?

[billy]

Yes :) Reggie Miller