Post by Steve Jobs on Dec 10, 2020 8:14:26 GMT -5
Okay, let me break down the first bit first:
Non-rookie NBA extensions aren’t indicative of a player’s intentions because they happen (typically) about a year before the player is a free agent instead of a few weeks, and thus the player couldn’t be expected to sign an extension weeks ahead of free agency? I don’t know why you think that argument makes logical sense. Not only is it not really true - a player can sign an extension all the way up to the day before they become a free agent, and it’s extremely common for players to sign their extension months into the season before their free agency - it also makes the exact OPPOSITE point you think it does for every free agent except RFA’s (who know they don’t get to choose where they go regardless so getting the money sooner is worth it).
If an unrestricted free agent chooses to sign an extension, literally at any point (weeks, months, or years), then they wouldn’t have changed their mind to instead explore free agency if they’d been a little closer to the free agency starting... because they get to choose, the decision is always relevant.
And from there we have the exact problem. Of course it makes sense to have the opinion that a player would see no reason not to test free agency if they’re so close anyway, but it’s not YOUR opinion that matters, you should be putting yourself in the mind of the free agent. If they’ve signed multiple RL extensions in the past and can’t receive more money than what they were offered in the extension, there is no way to even be attempting to accurately reflect their real life decision making except to lean heavily towards extending in all circumstances except not being offered the contract they deserve.
Dude we don't make players do exactly what they do in real life and you know it. You've been a part of the PA committee since this league was invented and this isn't what we do. 99% of the time the decision comes down to what makes the most sense for the player. Get over yourself.
We don’t because the majority of the time there is basically zero evidence for how they might decide and we just make decisions that make sense. Any time every scrap of evidence points to a decision, I have always voted on the side of realism unless I simply wasn’t aware of the evidence.
And nah, this isn’t a “get over yourself” moment, this is a “If the other PAs are going to make nonsensical decisions I’m going to call them out 100% of the time” moment. Because you’re right, I have been a PA since this league was invented. I think I have the experience to point to problematic BS when it happens rather than down the line after it’s already harmed the league.