Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 21, 2021 1:35:56 GMT -5
Current build Simulated stats with Current build Real life stats So, I simmed a season of 1000 games so that the sample size is large enough to not be affected a lot by variance and his FG% came to around 63% usually ,which seems pretty high to me considering he shoots 47% in real life. Even his defense in the sim was DPOY level which is not true in real life. Suggested sim build Simulated stats with suggested build Drummond is a tricky player to build due to his combination of high volume and low efficiency. His inside rating being this high might puzzle people but the reasoning for that is that although Drummond takes most of his shots at the rim in real life , I could not figure out (probably because the sim does not allow such builds) how to keep his percentages low while not reducing him to a 4 ppg player with him taking most of his shots at the rim. Hence, a higher inside rating and a lower dunks/layups rating makes Drummond take a higher percentage of shots in the post instead of at the rim. This helps in reducing his FG% since a post shot is less efficient than a shot at the rim. Even though he is a 17 ppg player on 47% shooting irl, my aim was to make him into a 10 ppg player on 55% shooting since I feel like that is what his numbers would look like on a team like Philly. I got him to 8 ppg on 56% shooting in which I would have liked his ppg to be a point or 2 higher but I think this is reasonable. I suggest nerfing his physical attributes so that he is not an elite defender in the sim but to make his steals, blocks and rebounds closer to real life I had to bump up his Defensive IQ. I bumped up his Free Throw rating a little as his original build had a lower than real life FT% to get it closer to real life %. To match his turnovers per game, his dribbling is also nerfed a little Overall, this build is not perfect but I feel like this is still reasonable and a step in the right direction and perhaps Billy could allocate the rating points better to make it accurate Suggested overall-58
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 21, 2021 1:37:23 GMT -5
Also I should add doing a SW of Drummond was a pain in the ass so mad respect to billy for rebuilding players while dealing with GMs complaining about it too.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Feb 21, 2021 4:58:40 GMT -5
I suggest nerfing his physical attributes so that he is not an elite defender in the sim but to make his steals, blocks and rebounds closer to real life I had to bump up his Defensive IQ. This is actually in my opinion maybe the biggest generic issue that should be in fixed with these Alexnoob rosters. Or it's not too big issue, but there are some players whose build could be fixed.
Since the defensive skills are basically calculated with dIQ and all the physical stats, all the super athletic big men like Zion or Drummond are one of the top defenders in the these rosters, although of course reality is far away. This is also why you see often some big men (like Zion) with Dp attribute. Just by making them big and strong you automatically give them also pretty high perimeter defense also.
It could be fixed like this to nerf the athleticism, or maybe nerfing the defensive IQ could work for some players. They might be fouling bit more maybe then. But of course if you nerf athleticism too much, then also the scoring might take too much hit. Balance is a bitch :D
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Feb 21, 2021 5:08:03 GMT -5
To match his turnovers per game, his dribbling is also nerfed a little Funnily enough that doesn't even have impact on the turnover rate :D
turnovers: { ratings: [50, "ins", "pss", "oiq"], weights: [0.5, 1, 1, -1], },
So you increased his turnovers by making his passing and inside scoring higher. :)
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 21, 2021 5:31:20 GMT -5
To match his turnovers per game, his dribbling is also nerfed a little Funnily enough that doesn't even have impact on the turnover rate :D
turnovers: { ratings: [50, "ins", "pss", "oiq"], weights: [0.5, 1, 1, -1], },
So you increased his turnovers by making his passing and inside scoring higher. :)
I messed up there haha. The link of Billy's post is actually pretty helpful. Will refer to that in future SW threads to get a more accurate build
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Feb 21, 2021 7:43:35 GMT -5
58, looks like shaq made Drummond a much more realistic version of himself. Drummond at his current build is insane. Sometimes shooting 69% from the field on elite defensive numbers. He clearly needs to go down so I’m choosing 58 because that’s drunmonds overall in shaqs build he posted
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Post by Ron Artest(1x Champ) on Feb 21, 2021 7:58:23 GMT -5
Are we voting in overall, or the actual build. Voting on overall seems arbitrary. It’s much more important that we get accurate builds if we’re going to be doing a SW on a player.
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 21, 2021 8:06:10 GMT -5
Are we voting in overall, or the actual build. Voting on overall seems arbitrary. It’s much more important that we get accurate builds if we’re going to be doing a SW on a player. According to the guidelines you are supposed to vote on a new overall while specifying how the individual ratings should be changed
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Paul Pierce
Chicago Bulls
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Post by Paul Pierce on Feb 21, 2021 8:30:35 GMT -5
Yeah to be clear, in this instance I’m on board with the exact build shaq dropped since he put a ton of effort in and ran a big sample size
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Post by Ron Artest(1x Champ) on Feb 21, 2021 9:47:44 GMT -5
I’m on board with the drop in physical attributes, but the layups/Dunks should be higher, probably about 70-75. I think he’d still average 12-15 points with this squad, if it were a team irl. I haven’t paid attention to Drummond this year, and though I’ve always felt like he was a bit overrated in Noob’s builds, his FG%, and efficiency in general is uncharacteristically bad this year. It’s more of an outlier than a norm, and should be treated as such
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Feb 21, 2021 15:42:43 GMT -5
I don't have a lot of time to get into this today, but I agree that Drummond's efficiency this year is an outlier. For players with a lot of history in the league, I think we should heavily weight stats from the previous 1-2 seasons. 82 games is a fairly decent sample size, 240 is better, but 45 is the by far the worst.
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 21, 2021 22:53:33 GMT -5
I’m on board with the drop in physical attributes, but the layups/Dunks should be higher, probably about 70-75. I think he’d still average 12-15 points with this squad, if it were a team irl. I haven’t paid attention to Drummond this year, and though I’ve always felt like he was a bit overrated in Noob’s builds, his FG%, and efficiency in general is uncharacteristically bad this year. It’s more of an outlier than a norm, and should be treated as such 2024 is with 70 layups/dunks and 2025 is with 75 layup/dunks. Drummond still has a 58 overall in both and I think both these builds provide better results than what I suggested. However, I don't think it is possible to get him to average 12-15 ppg with this team without him shooting over 60% which would be pretty inaccurate since he has not shot over 53.3% in the last 3 seasons.
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Scott Pilgrim
Philadelphia 76ers
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Post by Scott Pilgrim on Feb 22, 2021 1:45:05 GMT -5
dis man really simulated 2000 games 😭
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 22, 2021 2:35:24 GMT -5
dis man really simulated 2000 games 😭 More like 20000 lol. Drummond's build is a bitch
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Feb 23, 2021 8:44:38 GMT -5
I agree with what Shaq has layed out here. I'll vote a 59 though. I like the general approach of lowering the athletic attributes and increasing the defensive IQ, but it may be taken a little bit far here. I also might switch around the dunking and inside rating. As I mentioned before I'm not going to be trying to create 2020-2021's stat lines for these players, but get them closer to their 2-3 year average. At any given point I think a player is closer to their average production between the current and last season than they are to either season's performance in particular. The goal isn't to have to re-rate these player's every season, but maybe every 2-3 years.
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
Posts: 1,897
Likes: 627
Total Bank: 93,509
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 23, 2021 9:12:37 GMT -5
I also might switch around the dunking and inside rating. That was my initial approach too but in my experience he was shooting over 60% on doing that when in real life, the highest FG % in the last 3 seasons for Drummond has been 53.4%. The reasoning for having a higher inside rating and a lower dunks/ layups rating was to have Drummond take more shots in the post which is a low percentage shot as opposed to high percentage shots so that he can maintain a higher volume on slightly lower efficiency. Shot location wise it is not accurate but personally I think accurate efficiency is more important than shot location accuracy
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Feb 23, 2021 11:02:28 GMT -5
I also might switch around the dunking and inside rating. That was my initial approach too but in my experience he was shooting over 60% on doing that when in real life, the highest FG % in the last 3 seasons for Drummond has been 53.4%. The reasoning for having a higher inside rating and a lower dunks/ layups rating was to have Drummond take more shots in the post which is a low percentage shot as opposed to high percentage shots so that he can maintain a higher volume on slightly lower efficiency. Shot location wise it is not accurate but personally I think accurate efficiency is more important than shot location accuracy Andre drummonds career 0-3 is 64%, if you want to lower his effective field goal percentage then we need him to take more shots that aren't at the rim. That comes from increasing the other scoring ratings as you suggest, but not by as much as you suggest so he will take more but be bad at it.
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Feb 23, 2021 11:18:00 GMT -5
this is how the skills will be changed with Shaq's build. It's pretty complex stuff how everything is impacted.
Now he would be still elite at shooting in low post, but suck at shooting at the rim.
Also defensively. Still good Interior defense and decent in blocking. Now he is elite at steals but will suck at perimeter defense. But in general the total defensive impact has even increased slightly :D
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Scott Pilgrim
Philadelphia 76ers
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Post by Scott Pilgrim on Feb 23, 2021 11:20:31 GMT -5
I also might switch around the dunking and inside rating. That was my initial approach too but in my experience he was shooting over 60% on doing that when in real life, the highest FG % in the last 3 seasons for Drummond has been 53.4%. The reasoning for having a higher inside rating and a lower dunks/ layups rating was to have Drummond take more shots in the post which is a low percentage shot as opposed to high percentage shots so that he can maintain a higher volume on slightly lower efficiency. Shot location wise it is not accurate but personally I think accurate efficiency is more important than shot location accuracy Might wanna take into consideration that he's not on a team with terrible shooters and playmakers, like most of his time at Detroit and Cleveland. I'm pretty sure a starting line-up of Lillard-Harden-Bogdanovic-Morris-Drummond (alot of 4 out 1 in motion offense) would lead him to have a fg% in the mid 60s. There would be so many high percentage looks for him, any centre would feast, especially him.
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Shaq O'Neal
LA Clippers
Posts: 1,897
Likes: 627
Total Bank: 93,509
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Post by Shaq O'Neal on Feb 23, 2021 11:31:07 GMT -5
That was my initial approach too but in my experience he was shooting over 60% on doing that when in real life, the highest FG % in the last 3 seasons for Drummond has been 53.4%. The reasoning for having a higher inside rating and a lower dunks/ layups rating was to have Drummond take more shots in the post which is a low percentage shot as opposed to high percentage shots so that he can maintain a higher volume on slightly lower efficiency. Shot location wise it is not accurate but personally I think accurate efficiency is more important than shot location accuracy Might wanna take into consideration that he's not on a team with terrible shooters and playmakers, like most of his time at Detroit and Cleveland. I'm pretty sure a starting line-up of Lillard-Harden-Bogdanovic-Morris-Drummond (alot of 4 out 1 in motion offense) would lead him to have a fg% in the mid 60s. There would be so many high percentage looks for him, any centre would feast, especially him. Yes his real life teams were shit and with players on your team he should have a higher efficiency . However, I think a >10% increase in FG% is a bit much so FG% of around 57-58% is more reasonable imo.
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Mar 6, 2021 16:42:10 GMT -5
Bump. This was a really thorough thread but everyone's votes don't have to have 1000s of simulations. Now that shaq has posted the build publically people can comment on the individual ratings a bit and whether they agree or disagree with the changes shaq has proposed, but we do need some votes.
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Post by Stuff The Magic Dragon on Mar 7, 2021 7:15:06 GMT -5
I agree with Shaq’s
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John Stockton
Atlanta Hawks
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Post by John Stockton on Mar 7, 2021 18:01:41 GMT -5
im gonna trust shaqs diligence and his sims so i will vote a 58
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Theodore Duncan
Portland Trail Blazers
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Post by Theodore Duncan on Mar 8, 2021 3:14:16 GMT -5
Looking at the other big men in the range I think 59 probably would be okay. I agree with the general approach of Shaq's build, but some tweaks would be good. I think maybe his drippling and turnovers got nerfed too much
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Yeezy
Dallas Mavericks
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Post by Yeezy on Apr 8, 2021 10:45:19 GMT -5
I vote 59
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billy
Miami Heat
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Post by billy on Apr 9, 2021 12:30:17 GMT -5
New build for drummond (until updated at playoffs)
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